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757
FXUS65 KREV 200852
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
152 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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* There is a 10-20% chance of showers and maybe a storm or two
  this afternoon along the eastern Sierra south of Lake Tahoe.
  Otherwise, dry conditions will persist.

* Temperatures will continue to heat up, approaching 100 degrees
  in hotter valleys this weekend. This will result in Moderate
  Heat Risk levels.

* Afternoon breezes return this weekend and will likely continue
  into next week as temperatures drop back a few degrees.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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* A split trough will move into the western U.S. today with light
  winds over the Sierra/western NV associated with weak
  deformation. HREF PWATs rise to 0.40-0.50" and will combine
  with another 5 degrees of warming to allow for CAPE on the order
  of 300-500 J/KG by late afternoon. This will be sufficient for
  some buildups along the Sierra with a 10-20% chance of seeing
  showers and 10% chance that one or two updrafts will be
  sufficient to produce lightning. Wind gusts to 40 mph will be
  the primary impact out of these high-based showers.

* Otherwise it will remain dry with temperatures heating up
  through the weekend, peaking Saturday. It is almost certain a
  few hotter western NV spots will reach 100 degrees with the
  Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport having a 50/50 chance of getting there
  for the first time this year. Nothing to brag about as the
  HeatRisk category rises to moderate levels, locally major this
  weekend. Fortunately, we will continue to cool efficiently at
  nights as the airmass remains very dry. So the primary impacts
  will be during the day - make sure to take breaks and stay
  hydrated, avoiding strenuous activity during the peak heat.
  Smoke transport from CA wildfires will generally stay aloft due
  to the distant proximity of ongoing fires, including the Sites
  Fire. However, depending on fire activity this weekend and early
  next week, any increase in southwest flow could draw a bit more
  smoke into the area and result in hazy conditions.

* Typical afternoon breezes return this weekend into next week as
  the ridge axis remains to our south and a general southwest flow
  aloft persists. There are a few scenarios where the flow briefly
  turns southerly and draws in some mid level moisture early next
  week - this could bring a storm or two. The forecast will not
  reflect any showers/storms as chances are currently very low
  (<10% chance). Temperatures may cool a few degrees, but it is
  not going to be very noticeable.

Hohmann
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR through Friday with light winds. There is a 10-20% chance for
a shower or storm along the eastern Sierra, mainly south of Lake
Tahoe later today (22-02Z). Temperatures will warm through the
weekend with afternoon SW breezes returning Saturday and beyond.
There could be some density altitude issues as afternoon
temperatures approach the mid-upper 80s Sierra terminals and
96-102 degrees at lower elevation airports.

Hohmann
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$