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902
FXUS65 KREV 212017
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
117 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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* A dry weather pattern with mainly light winds prevails through
  early next week.

* Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through next week.

* Look for southwest wind to increase by midweek with the best
  chances over northeast CA and northwest NV.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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The last day of summer will once again see a continuation of
seasonal warm temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light north-
northeast winds. Daily high temperatures will remain in the low-
mid 80s for most lower valleys and 70s in the Sierra through the
middle of next week.

Some High-Res short term CAMS still hold onto the non-zero chance
(<10%) of a pop-up shower, and even a very slight chance through
early evening for an isolated thunderstorm towering over the
higher terrain of the eastern Sierra in Mono County. The prime
ingredients for convection of an upslope flow from the north-
northeast, modest mid-level moisture, daytime surface heating, and
favorable upper-level dynamics provide for a measure of confidence
that at least a few towering cumulus could lift over the more
complex terrain areas. Blended guidance shows potential for a
repeat performance Sunday afternoon, with shower chances hovering
close to the areas for this evening`s sparse convection.

Model simulations project the current conditions to continue into
early next week with little change to start the fall season.
Guidance continues to place a Rex blocking pattern over the
western US Sunday and Monday that transitions into an Omega
pattern with high pressure briefly building over the Great Basin
and Intermountain West by mid-week. This setup will allow for a
long wave trough to settle over western Canada and the eastern
Pacific through this period. The increased southwest flow aloft
will also allow for enhanced breezes across the region Wednesday
afternoon, especially across northeast CA and northern Washoe
County close to the Oregon border. These conditions could bring an
increased risk of elevated fire weather conditions for those
areas. Much of this is dependent upon the condition of receptive
fuels across the region following a period of dry conditions.

Whether you are enjoying that summer-finishing camping trip in
the Sierra backcountry, boating on area lakes, or aviating to that
favorite airport for a quick meal, this is the time to do it.
Ensemble guidance is starting to trend toward a potentially wetter
and cooler pattern by the start of October.

-Amanda
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&&

.AVIATION...

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With the except of some patchy fog forming early Sunday morning
around the Martis Valley to include KTRK, look for VFR conditions
to continue for main terminals through Monday. Although some light
haze may be present around urban areas for the next couple of
mornings, there will be a low chance (<10%) for any visibility
restrictions. Haze will disperse by early afternoon as mixing
increases with daytime heating. Light north-northeast winds of 10
kt or less will become mostly diurnally driven overnight through
early next week.

-Amanda
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$