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322
FXUS65 KREV 192030
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
130 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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A warming trend brings well above-average temperatures to the region
through the weekend. Outside of low chances for afternoon showers
today and Thursday, conditions are expected to remain dry through
the weekend. Increased west-southwesterly breezes return this
weekend, with potential to create a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Slight cooling is expected next week, but highs
remain above average.
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.DISCUSSION...

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A troughing pattern over the western US slowly breaks down into this
weekend, with high pressure filling in through the weekend. Heating
reaches its peak on Saturday, with high temperatures across the
region climbing near or into triple digits for western Nevada
valleys and mid-to-upper 80s for most Sierra communities.

Cumulus buildups are evident on latest satellite imagery, mainly
along the high Sierra in Mono and Alpine counties this afternoon.
Given light, diffluent flow aloft and strengthening surface heating,
instability is increasing across the region. In conjunction with
PWATs around 0.40", this modest instability may be enough to pop a
few showers across the Eastern Sierra this afternoon, with a 10%
chance. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow. Otherwise, expect
dry conditions to prevail across the region with generally light
winds. Skies remain mostly clear outside of some high clouds and
haze from elevated smoke originating from the Sites Fire in Colusa
County, CA.

Our afternoon westerly Zephyr wind returns on Saturday as pressure
gradients tighten across the Sierra Front. Winds further increase on
Sunday as a shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest
introduces increased southwesterly flow across our region, with
widespread gusts to 30-35 mph possible. As conditions remain
extremely dry across the region, with valley minimum RH in the
single digits to low teens, these conditions raise increased
concerns for fire weather on Sunday.

A good amount of spread still exists in the ensembles as we head
into early next week, with the aforementioned shortwave trough
attempting to flatten the ridge across the western US. 20% of
ensemble clusters show a a Four Corners High type pattern developing
by Tuesday, though confidence remains low on how this pattern may
impact our region. Regardless, temperatures look to remain above
average with afternoon westerly Zephyr winds continuing through at
least mid-next week. Whitlam
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions and light winds continue. Skies remain mostly clear
outside of some cumulus buildups along the high terrain of the
Sierra as well as a few passing high level clouds. There is a 5-10%
chance for a stray shower to impact KMMH between 22-02z. Whitlam
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$