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215
FXUS65 KREV 110934
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
234 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Above normal temperatures are expected again today and lasting
through Thursday with high temperatures approaching the triple
digits across western Nevada. Areas along and south of US-50 may
also see a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the evening hours today through Thursday. A cooling trend
with increased winds looks likely going through the weekend and
into the beginning of next week.
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.DISCUSSION...

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The latest RAP analysis shows an upper air ridge over the western
CONUS along with an upper air low residing off the coast of the Baja
Peninsula this morning. Current surface observations and satellite
imagery reports mostly clear skies once again along with dry
conditions across the region. Model guidance projects the current
upper air pattern pretty much staying in place through today and
Wednesday as well. This pattern then changes on Thursday when
models have the southern low starting to move across southern CA
during the day and into southern NV by Thursday night. As a
result of this upper air pattern, the region will be seeing the
return of near record heat today through Thursday with Wednesday
looking to be the hottest day followed by today and then Thursday.
Highs will return into the upper 90s across western Nevada with
hotter valleys touching the 100 degree mark each afternoon.
Overnight lows will also be near record warm territory as lows are
expected to run 10-15F above average. Widespread moderate heat
risks can be expected with some isolated major heat risks across
the hotter western Nevada valleys. It is definitely recommended to
take precautions if you plan on being outdoors for the next few
days. Make sure to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and wear light
clothing in order to avoid heat related illnesses. Please visit
weather.gov/safety/heat for more helpful tips to deal with these
hot conditions.

As for precipitation chances for today through Thursday, the
latest run of the NAM shows around a 10-15% chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms within areas along and south of US-50
especially near the Sierra during the late afternoon and evening
hours today through Thursday due to diurnal heating. While severe
weather is not anticipated at this time, storms that do occur will
be capable of yielding small hail, brief heavy rains, and gusty
outflow winds. Thursday currently looks to have the best coverage
for precipitation out of these three days due to the movement of
the aforementioned upper air low.

On Friday, forecast guidance shows an upper air trough moving into
the Pacific Northwest and pushing the ridge feature off to the east
over the Great Plains by late in the day. With this going on aloft,
the CWA can expect a dry cold front passage which will usher in
southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25-35 mph during the
afternoon with the potential for up to around 40 mph in wind prone
areas. This may create some choppy conditions across area lakes
along with cross wind issues for high profile vehicles Friday
afternoon, so please watch for future forecast updates as they
become available. Temperatures in the CWA look to start a slight
cooling trend starting on Friday with this cold front as well.
Ensemble guidance shows the CWA being under the eastern portion of
the upper air trough going through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week allowing for a west-southwesterly upper air
flow. Extended models show western NV`s daytime highs in the 80s
over the weekend with some portions being in the 70s on Monday and
Tuesday. Daytime high temperatures for the Sierra portions of the
CWA look to be in the 70s through the weekend with some portions
being in the lower 80s on Friday and then in the upper 60s on
Tuesday. Long term models appear to agree with low precipitation
chances over the weekend, but the latest ECMWF run shows some
precipitation chances along the OR border on Monday while the GFS
delays these chances until Tuesday in its latest solution. Will
continue to monitor this going forward for better agreement
between these models. -078
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions are expected today for all of the region TAF sites
with afternoon breezes gusting up to around 20 kts beginning at 20Z-
22Z for the NV TAF sites as well as KTRK. Winds then look to
decrease starting in the evening and going into the night. There
also is a slight chance (10-15%) for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity of KTVL, KMEV, and KMMH during the
late afternoon and evening, but not anticipating impacts to these
terminals at this time. Density altitude impacts may increase today
through Thursday as afternoon highs increase to 15-20 degrees above
average. -078
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$