Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
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Issued by NWS Reno, NV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --369 FXUS65 KREV 242015 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 115 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --* The warmth will continue through the week with temperatures 5-8 degrees above normal and minor to moderate heat risk. Typical afternoon breezes today and Tuesday. * 10-20% chance showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in Mono and Mineral Counties, with a 15-40% chance as far north as I-80 Tuesday. A few showers may persist overnight tonight and Tuesday night. * Dry and breezy Wednesday and Thursday with heightened fire weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --* The eastern Sierra and northwestern Nevada is currently sandwiched between a trough off the PacNW coast and an expansive area of high pressure over the Desert Southwest. Typical summer warmth and afternoon breezes today and Tuesday, with localized critical fire weather conditions. Increasing moisture tonight into Tuesday will mitigate some of those concerns. Wind gusts should primarily be in the 20-30 mph range each day, outside of any thunderstorm activity. * There is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening in southern Mono-Mineral Counties. Coverage will be spotty at best, but will increase into Tuesday. A quick surge of moisture arrives tonight into Tuesday night, pushing PWATs upwards of 0.7-1.0", climatologically high for the region at around the 95th percentile for the date. The trend for a more northward reach with the moisture has continued and latest ensemble members are now indicating the higher PWATs even into northeast CA. While the highest probabilities for thunderstorm activity are for areas near and south of I-80 on Tuesday, we`re seeing signs of showers with a 15% chance for a thunderstorm in any given location per the HREF into northeast CA. A few showers could continue tonight and Tuesday night with much more extensive cloud cover and higher humidity across the region. Storms have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds, along with the lightning and new fire start concerns. * This moisture is quickly scoured out Wednesday into Thursday as a trough and associated cold front shift through the region. Southwest winds will be gusty Wednesday, turning northwesterly behind the cold front on Thursday. 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph on Wednesday, with the strongest winds focused into the west-central Nevada Basin and Range Thursday. The dry air and gusty winds will bring enhanced fire weather concerns with critical conditions likely. If there are any hold over fires from thunderstorm activity Tuesday, the dry and windy conditions could will exacerbate concerns. Please see the fire weather section below for additional details. * Looking further out, additional passing dry troughs will keep thunderstorms at bay, with periods of enhanced winds and near to above normal temperatures potentially through the 4th of July. -Dawn-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --* Widespread VFR conditions, outside of a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms 21-03z this afternoon and evening near and south of a KMMH-KHTH line. Storm chances increase and expand northward Tuesday with localized heavy rainfall obscuring terrain and gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40 kts possible. All terminal sites from KSVE-KWMC south could be impacted by showers as early at 16z Tuesday and thunderstorms from 20z-05z. A 15-40% chance at any given location. * Typical SW-W afternoon breezes through 02-04z this evening, and again Tuesday from 20z-03z. Stronger SW winds are expected Wednesday, with breezy NW winds Thursday. -Dawn-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --* TODAY: Our region will stay mostly dry and warm for the rest of this afternoon. A few showers are possible across Mono & Mineral counties (20% chance). There`s a very low risk of lightning with these storms, however cannot rule out a strike or two in heavier showers. We`ll stay fairly breezy today out of the west with gusts reaching up to 25-30 mph. There will be poor recoveries overnight tonight across zones 458/423/429. * TOMORROW: Mid-level moisture will be brought up from the south tonight into tomorrow. This will push PWATs up to almost 1.00" by tomorrow afternoon. Starting early Tuesday morning, some light showers will start popping up along Mono/Mineral counties. Shower coverage and intensity will increase northward as the afternoon goes on. There will be a greater chance for lightning tomorrow afternoon (20-30%) between 1 PM and 7 PM. Westerly winds Tuesday will be a little bit lighter than today, with gusts reaching only up to 20-25 mph. * WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: Overnight into Wednesday, the recoveries will be significantly better. However, there be much drier air being fed into the region, bringing RHs back down below 20% by mid-afternoon. We have just issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday between 2 PM and 11 PM for northern zones 270/278/458/423. The main concerns will be gusty winds and low humidity. The latest blended guidance has gusts reaching up to 40 mph across those zones, with RHs as low as 12%. Elsewhere, winds won`t be as strong (20-25 mph) and humidities will be slightly higher (20-30%). Thursday onward, we stay in a dry and warm pattern through the weekend with our typical afternoon breezes. -Justin-- End Changed Discussion --&& .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...-- Changed Discussion --NV...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening NVZ423-458. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening CAZ270-278.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$