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781
FXUS61 KRLX 030647
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Next chance
for rain arrives late Wednesday. Active weather expected on
Thursday and Friday with cold fronts.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 505 PM Tuesday...

No changes necessary.

As of 106 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high
pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday,
mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect
mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy
fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.

Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in
control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day
with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or
two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds
throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which
could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a
marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West
Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be
mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more
stable atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

  * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with cold front.

  * Some storms could be strong or severe.

  * There is a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.

  * There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday.

Stationary front across Ohio gains some steam and slowly moves
eastward across the area Thursday. Showers and storms will
overspread the area as through out the day as it makes its eastward
journey. Some storms will be strong or severe with damaging winds
and maybe some hail. SPC has the entire forecast area outlooked for
a marginal risk of severe weather.

NAM shows some fairly impressive CAPE (SB,ML and MU) profiles
between 1,000-3,000 J/Kg across the area Thursday during peak
heating. Values greater than 3,000 J/Kg could exist in a CAPE bulge
across the southern coalfields in the afternoon and this could be an
area to watch for higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Some
uncertainty exists with whether these values will come to fruition
as cloud cover could exist throughout the day preventing
temperatures from being too hot and creating a cap for any strong
convection. Regardless, temperatures look to be in the mid to high
80s across the lowlands with the mountains ranging between the mid
70s and mid 80s. These temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of clearing that occurs.

Surface to 500MB bulk shear looks to remain confined across our SE
Ohio counties and along the Ohio River until later in the afternoon
as the front and surface low push through. Values are forecasted to
be between 30-45kts across this area, which is decent enough to
maintain storm longevity and provide at least a minuscule tornado
threat depending on the positioning of a surface low or vort max;
the main threats remain to be damaging winds and small hail though.

Heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this system as it is
slow moving and precipitable water will be around 2.00" inches
across the bulk of the area, which is a decent amount of water. As a
result, LCLs look to be fairly low (500 to 1,000 meters)resulting in
lower cloud bases. Localized to isolated flash flooding issues will
be on the table, especially for areas that receive a lot of rain
Wednesday night. WPC has the entire area outlooked for a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Wednesday...

A warm front will be to our north early Friday with another
cold front west of the area. This front is expected to move
through later on Friday into Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms expected from Friday into Saturday. A dry spell
looks likely from late Saturday into early Monday as this front
exits.

Temperatures will also be above normal through the long-term
forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the typical lowland hot spots into next week. Heat
indices will be around 100 degrees for a few locations on Friday
due to high humidity, which could lead to a heat advisory being
issued.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 144 AM Wednesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through
at least 00Z Thursday. Opted to remove dense fog development
and associated IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN during the predawn
hours due to clouds over the area preventing radiational
cooling to do its work.

After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However, occasional
gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z. Most of the area will
remain dry through the afternoon hours. Then, convection will fire
up ahead of an approaching cold front across SE OH by late afternoon
into the evening hours. Any strong shower or thunderstorms will
produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path.
Terminals most likely to be affected will be PKB, HTS and CRW
around 00Z and thereafter. Thunderstorms will weaken to just
showers as they move into a more stable environment over the
eastern terminals.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shallow dense fog may develop along the
Tygart river valley, including EKN late overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ