-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
138
FXUS64 KSHV 270213
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
913 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 906 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Airmass has been slow to recover this evening following earlier
precipitation across the region. Showers and thunderstorms remain
fairly active along a weak frontal boundary across portions of
north-central Texas and Mississippi. However, the same boundary
bisecting the ArkLaTex remains free of convection. This may
change, however going into the overnight hours with some high res
models suggesting scattered showers and thunderstorms firing along
the boundary. Current forecast thinking remains on track with
scattered pop wording across areas along and south of I-20 late
through late tonight. Otherwise, temperatures forecast to fall
into the lower 70s overnight. /05/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Current MCS ongoing across Deep E TX and NCntrl LA has shown signs
of weakening over the last hour, although sporadic damaging wind
gusts have still been observed with the more organized line over
Deep E TX, with the line more ragged farther E across NCntrl LA.
This convection should exit the remainder of the CWA in the next
1-2 hours and thus, the SVR Watch should be allowed to be canceled
early prior to its 00Z expiration. In its wake, a large cold pool
has overspread much of the region, with temps having fallen off
some 15-20+ degrees with dewpoints having also cooled 5-10 degrees
with its passage as well. Have cancelled the Heat Advisory for
areas behind the main line of convection, with the remaining
counties likely being cancelled early as well once the convection
moves through.

The short term progs are in decent agreement with a weak sfc front
noted over Nrn AR sagging S overnight, before backdooring SW into
portions of NE TX/N LA late tonight. With the short progs
handling the current convection so poorly, believe most of the
night will be quiet given the more stable air that has settled S,
although the presence of the approaching sfc front may help focus
isolated to widely scattered convection redevelopment overnight
mainly over NCntrl LA and the adjacent sections of Lower E TX,
where chance to slight chance pops were maintained. This will be
the favored area for convection redevelopment Thursday as well, as
the sfc front becomes stationary over this area. However, the
center of the upper ridge will begin expanding E into the Srn
Plains Thursday, allowing for a deeper wedge of drier air to begin
mixing S into the area, thus tapering the convection back by the
afternoon and resulting for slightly cooler dewpoints to mix SSW
in wake of the front. Am still concerned for the potential for
moisture pooling in VC of the stalling front over the W and SW
sections of E TX, where hotter temps should exist. Heat indices
may reach or exceed 105 degrees over these areas, but given the
lack of agreement amongst the majority of the short term progs
with the ongoing convection, the placement of the front is of
lower confidence and thus, am not confident enough to go with a
Heat Advisory until better consensus is reached, hopefully in
later model runs.

Quiet conditions will return by Thursday night (if not sooner), as
the remnants of the front linger over the region. This should
result in slightly cooler conditions over much of Srn AR and
NCntrl LA.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The long term portion of the forecast remains hot and mostly dry,
dominated by the stubborn upper level ridge as it continues to
build E over the region Friday and linger through the upcoming
weekend. There is enough of a consensus that a weakness aloft will
slide S along the Ern periphery of the ridge center Sunday, which
may enhance isolated to widely scattered convection development
over Srn AR/N LA, where chance/slight chance pops were maintained.
Unfortunately, even hotter and drier conditions will return by the
first of the new work week once the ridge center expands farther E
into the region and Lower MS Valley. Any isolated convection
during this time frame would be confined to Deep E TX and NCntrl
LA, although near to triple digit temps look to return to much of
the area this weekend through next week, thus necessitating the
need for additional heat headlines through much of the period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Following QLCS thunderstorms this afternoon, questions surround
airspace CIGs tonight, and cloud coverage tomorrow afternoon.
Model guidance has lacked consistency through the late afternoon,
and confidence in one solution is not high at this time. Latest
satellite does advertise a well defined BKN/OVC layer that falls
between 10kft to 15kft based on area ASOS/AWOS observations.

North of KTXK, another layer of BKN mid-deck is developing ahead
of a cold front located across OK/AR. Some hi-res solutions this
evening continue to promote redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA across
Oklahoma and north Texas, approaching east TX terminals after
06z. Again though, given guidance handling within a NW flow regime
locally, confidence of any impacts remains uncertain. As a
result, elected to include VCTS for KTYR, KGGG and KLFK. By the
afternoon, a CU field should exist across the airspace before
stronger upper level ridging influences the region.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  93  78  98 /  40  20   0  10
MLU  73  91  74  95 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  73  92  71  96 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  74  93  75  98 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  71  90  71  95 /  30  10   0  10
TYR  75  95  78  98 /  30  10   0   0
GGG  75  94  76  97 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  75  95  76  96 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...53