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031
FXUS63 KTOP 251723
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Heat Advisory continues through 8pm this evening, with heat
indices up to 109 degrees today.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning along and
  east Highway 59, although better chances (30-60%) are in far
  eastern KS this evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts are
  the main concern with storms tonight.

- Hot weather returns Friday, otherwise more seasonal
  temperatures midweek through the weekend with mainly
  nighttime storm chances.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper ridge is holding strong across the southern US early this
morning, while zonal flow dominates the northern third of the CONUS
with a couple of embedded perturbations within it. One of those
perturbations can be seen rounding the ridge in western KS, where
decaying convection has been slowly moving through that part of the
state and is expected to stay west of our area before it dissipates
into the morning. HRRR runs have been consistent in developing
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along
and south of I-70 during the mid to late morning hours. The FV3 has
shown this too, while most other CAM guidance remains dry. The
HRRR`s persistence makes it tough to dismiss this completely,
although it`s also tough to see much forcing causing the precip,
aside from perhaps weak isentropic ascent in the 320K layer that
could be just enough to develop a few storms. Have limited PoPs to
20% or less given the low confidence. Shear looks weak during this
time frame as well, so would not expect anything to become severe if
it develops this morning.

The main storm risk comes later tonight, but in the meantime, expect
another hot and humid day across the area. Deep mixing (albeit not
quite as deep as yesterday) plus the thermal axis remaining overhead
will contribute to temperatures rising to the upper 90s to low 100s
again. Heat indices up to 109 are expected and have made no changes
to the Heat Advisory for today.

Another embedded shortwave ejecting out into the central and
northern Plains is expected to help push a cold front southward from
NE late this afternoon and eventually move across our area this
evening and overnight. Plenty of instability should develop ahead of
the boundary with 2000-4000 of MLCAPE (highest toward far northeast
KS and into NE/IA) with deep-layer shear around 30 kt. The best
forcing for ascent is expected to be along the front in eastern NE
and IA, where a complex of storms looks to develop late this
afternoon or early this evening. The main question for us is related
to the western extent of storms into our area as this MCS moves
south/southeast tonight. Some guidance, such as the NAM/RAP/HRRR,
suggests storms may miss us completely and stay in MO. Other CAMs
have at least some portion of eastern KS impacted, but vary slightly
in their timing and western extent as storms move south. At this
time, locations along and east of Hwy 75 stand the best chance of
seeing storms as this area is where PoPs above 50% are focused.
Timing generally looks to be after 9-10pm when putting all guidance
together. Damaging winds are the main threat as storms move through
the area, which should end before sunrise Wednesday morning.

More seasonal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday with
highs in the 80s to low 90s, as the upper ridge becomes more
established over the southwest CONUS and we transition to more
northwesterly flow aloft. Another perturbation on the periphery of
the ridge brings more storm chances late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, followed by a better chance Thursday night as a
more substantial shortwave trough over the northwestern US helps to
flatten the ridge. The thermal axis returns with low-level southerly
flow on Friday, bringing a brief return to hot and humid conditions
with heat indices around advisory levels possible once again.
Another cold front is progged to bring additional storm chances into
the weekend with a return to seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. Winds
generally around 10kts with some higher gusts at TOP and FOE
through 01Z. Question for this forecast remains timing of any
TSRA into FOE and TOP terminals. Tried to adjust timing to the
05Z-08Z time period as confidence remains medium only inserted
VCTS for now. Winds shift to the north in the 11Z-13Z time
period generally near or less than 10kts.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Record hot temperatures are possible Tuesday


          Record High              Forecast High

June 25   Topeka: 106 (1911)       Topeka: 97
          Concordia: 104 (1988)    Concordia: 100


          Record Highest Minimum   Forecast Minimum

June 25   Topeka: 82 (1911)        Topeka: 79
          Concordia: 80 (1952)     Concordia: 78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...Poage