841
FXUS65 KABQ 141136 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A slight break from the heat is expected today as a storm system
brings showers and thunderstorms to much of the state. A few
severe storms are possible across northeast and east central New
Mexico. Hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Repeated rounds of rainfall may result in burn scar
flooding across northern New Mexico. Drier air will filter into
the area this weekend, limiting thunderstorm chances, but allowing
the heat to return. Hot temperatures are expected Sunday and
Monday before temperatures trend downward once again. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday then precipitation
chances will increase mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A cooler and wetter day is expected today, especially across
northern NM, due to the passage of a upper low/ trough across the
CO/NM border. A few light showers will be possible this morning,
mainly along and west of the Continental Divide. Daytime heating
will allow for an increase in showers and storms come midday across
north central NM and the central mountain chain with quick motion to
the east and northeast spreading to the northeast highlands and
plains later this afternoon and early evening. A few storms along
the surface trough axis along and east of the central mountain chain
could become strong to severe with large hail among the initial
discrete cells turning more into a damaging wind threat as the storms
grow upscale and become more linear. In terms of rainfall, generally
up to 0.25 inches is possible west of the central mountain chain.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains with overall qpf amounts of around 0.5
to 0.75 inches. Will forego issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the
HPCC burn scar due to overall amounts under half an inch and the
quick storm motion of 15 to 25 kts. However, if the burn scar
receives multiple rounds of storms this afternoon, burn scar flash
flooding concerns would become higher. With the cloud cover and
storms, temperatures along and north of I-40 will be around 10 to
20 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. Storms across far
northeast NM look to exit into the Texas Panhandle after sunset.
However, some activity looks to linger well into the night across
far east central NM (Quay, Curry and Roosevelt counties) as the
trough axis moves east into the Great Plains. CLearer skies are
expected across western and central NM due to drier mid level air
moving in on the backside of the upper level trough. With that and
the possible moister low levels, cannot rule out some localized
areas of fog in the northwest and west valleys Saturday morning
around sunrise.

A drier and hotter Saturday is expected as weak ridging and drier
west flow moves over the region. Temperatures across western and
central NM will be around 6 to 12 degrees warmer compared to Friday.
In terms of precipitation, can`t rule out a few stray late day
showers and storms over the higher terrain of the central mountain
chain and along the Texas border due to upper level northwest flow
in the wake of Friday`s system interacting with higher low level
moisture mixing east into Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Any storms that developed during the afternoon on Saturday should
quickly diminish or move into Texas during the evening hours.
Thereafter, a weak upper level ridge will build back in over NM
which will allow temperatures on Sunday to ramp back up. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for the Roswell area at a minimum,
but a few other locales will see triple digit heat. A few breezes
will also be noted in the afternoon.

On Monday, the upper level ridge will shift eastward an upper low
moves over the PacNW resulting in weak southwesterly flow over NM.
Temperatures may drop a degree or two across western NM as H5
heights fall slightly, but much of eastern NM will still be
flirting with triple digit heat, and the Roswell area will again
top 105 degrees. Thus, another Heat Advisory will be possible for
that area. Strong mixing combined with a deepening surface low
will allow surface winds to pick up as well. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected areawide, though will stay at sub-
advisory levels. Temperatures will cool a few degrees more on
Tuesday, but otherwise will be similar to Monday.

Low level moisture will be diurnally sloshing back and forth
across eastern NM Saturday night through Tuesday as well, but
attm, it does not look like much in the way of thunderstorm
development will occur across eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday
afternoon. This may change on Wednesday. Some models are hinting
that a cold front will slide into eastern NM while others are
suggesting the moisture will become deep enough and push westward
enough for storms to form on the Central Mountain Chain. Whichever
forcing it may be, it does appear that precipitation chances will
trend upward across eastern NM. The moisture across eastern NM
will push much farther westward Wednesday night, perhaps to the AZ
border. This will set the stage for a potentially more active
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

An upper level trough is currently moving through Arizona with
light showers this morning across western TAF sites including
KGUP. It will clip northern NM today and provide scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the northern mountains later
this morning spreading to lower elevations across northern and
east central NM this afternoon and evening. A storm to two across
northeast and east central NM could become strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the threats along with locally
heavy rainfall. Brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings could be
possible in stronger and heavier storms across northeast and east
central NM including KCQC, KCVN and KCVS and other sites along and
north of this line. Any shower and storm activity across far
northeast NM will exit into the Texas panhandle after sunset.
However, shower and thunderstorm activity across east central NM
looks to persist well into the overnight hours Friday night into
Saturday morning and impact KTCC. Elsewhere, skies will clear
across western and central TAF sites overnight. Low confidence in
some patchy fog in some western and northern valley areas right at
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A cooler and wetter Friday is expected with measurable rainfall
along and north of Interstate 40. Heavier rainfall of around a
quarter to half and inch is expected across the Sangre de Cristos
eastward into the adjacent highlands and plains. Breezy and locally
windy conditions are expected as the system moves through. Areas in
western NM that received dry lightning the last few weeks will need
to be watched for fire starts. Hotter temperatures and unstable
conditions return this weekend but winds remain relatively light.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early to mid
next week, but an upper level low moving into the western US
increases southwest winds and lowers minimum relative humidity
values. Near critical fire weather conditions for most and locally
critical fire weather conditions across west central and
northeast NM look to peak Monday with generally elevated fire
weather conditions Sunday and Tuesday. Gulf moisture looks to
enter eastern NM Wednesday spreading further west late next week
helping to increase shower and storm chances and limiting fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  54  94  56 /  60   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  41  88  45 /  70  10   0   0
Cuba............................  75  49  87  53 /  70  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  46  94  48 /  70   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  50  89  53 /  60   5   0   0
Grants..........................  79  47  91  49 /  70  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  86  51  91  54 /  50   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  82  58  91  62 /  40  10   0   5
Datil...........................  83  53  89  57 /  60  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  48  93  47 /  40   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  95  62  96  58 /  30   0   0   0
Chama...........................  68  42  81  46 /  90  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  77  56  86  64 /  70  40   5   0
Pecos...........................  81  52  87  56 /  60  40  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  75  45  82  49 /  70  30  10   5
Red River.......................  71  42  73  45 /  80  30  10  10
Angel Fire......................  72  38  79  35 /  80  40  10   5
Taos............................  79  46  87  48 /  60  30  10   5
Mora............................  80  46  84  49 /  70  40  10   5
Espanola........................  84  54  92  58 /  60  30   5   5
Santa Fe........................  81  55  88  60 /  50  40   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  83  54  91  57 /  40  40   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  62  92  65 /  30  40   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  61  93  66 /  30  40   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  60  95  63 /  30  40   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  60  94  64 /  30  40   0   5
Belen...........................  89  57  97  61 /  30  20   0   5
Bernalillo......................  88  59  95  64 /  30  40   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  88  56  96  59 /  30  30   0   0
Corrales........................  88  58  94  62 /  30  40   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  88  56  96  59 /  30  20   0   5
Placitas........................  84  59  93  63 /  30  40   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  59  94  66 /  30  30   0   0
Socorro.........................  94  63  97  66 /  30  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  55  87  61 /  40  40   0   0
Tijeras.........................  82  56  90  62 /  40  40   0   0
Edgewood........................  83  53  90  59 /  50  30   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  50  91  51 /  50  30   5   0
Clines Corners..................  80  52  87  56 /  50  40   5   0
Mountainair.....................  85  53  89  59 /  40  40   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  86  53  90  57 /  40  40   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  92  62  92  66 /  30  30   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  84  56  85  61 /  50  30  10   0
Capulin.........................  82  51  85  55 /  70  50  20  10
Raton...........................  84  50  89  51 /  70  30  10  10
Springer........................  86  52  90  53 /  70  40  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  80  51  86  53 /  70  50  10  10
Clayton.........................  90  60  91  62 /  60  70  20  10
Roy.............................  86  56  89  58 /  70  60  10  10
Conchas.........................  95  61  96  63 /  50  60  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  90  60  94  63 /  50  60  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  93  61  97  63 /  40  60  10  10
Clovis..........................  94  64  94  66 /  10  60  10  20
Portales........................  95  64  95  65 /  10  50  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  95  63  95  66 /  20  60  10  10
Roswell......................... 100  71 101  69 /  10  40  10   5
Picacho.........................  94  62  94  63 /  50  30  20   5
Elk.............................  94  58  93  61 /  40  30  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71