952
FXUS65 KABQ 200000 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An extremely dangerous situation is unfolding today with life-
threatening burn scar flash flooding underway around Ruidoso. Radar
also indicated up to baseball size hail with the storm over the
South Fork burn scar at 230pm. Rainfall estimates up to 3.5" in
the past hour were indicated over Blue 2 and South Fork. This is
a terribly extreme situation given the recent fires in the
Ruidoso area. Debris flows may be catastrophic within several
canyons in the Rio Ruidoso watershed. Meanwhile, severe storms
have also developed along the frontal boundary draped along the
central mt chain. This activity will move north/northeast into the
nearby highlands and plains of eastern NM through the evening. A
Severe Storm Watch is in effect. The combination of deep low
level easterly flow with convective outflows will generate gap
winds up to 65 mph below canyons in east ABQ as well this evening
with blowing dust possible. A High Wind Warning remains in effect
and points north toward Santa Fe may also see wind gusts up to 55
mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect there as well. Storms will
likely continue well into the night across eastern NM before
tapering off to areas of light rain, showers, low stratus, and
patchy fog thru sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For Thursday, we will start out the day with widespread low clouds
across eastern NM with light rain showers and perhaps some patchy
fog along the east slopes of the central mt chain. This will keep a
lid on convective initiation for much of the day. There may also be
a period of subsidence over the area ahead of an approaching remnant
tropical wave moving northwest through northern Mexico. A few storms
will then fire up later in the day and evolve into a larger area
of rain with embedded storms Thursday night. This widespread rain
is shown moving slowly northward thru central and eastern NM thru
Friday afternoon. Some of the latest model guidance has shifted
the heavier QPF farther to the east than previous runs. Confidence
is also not high on what rainfall rates will look like if there
is not a lot of instability to generate thunderstorms. Warm rain
processes may still provide sufficient rainfall rates to counter
the lack of storms given the high PWAT tropical-like airmass. The
other model change was greater storm coverage Thursday night and
Friday over northwest NM where the remnant backdoor cold frontal
boundary is washed out from tonight and Thursday.

A ridge of high pressure is then expected to develop westward into
the region Saturday and Sunday. This will lower storm chances over
most of the area. However, there will still be sufficient moisture
for recycling of storms over the high terrain and nearby highlands.
Storm motions will be very slow under the ridge so flash flooding
will still be possible on burn scars despite less storm coverage.
This ridge may become strong enough and focused more over central
NM to limit convection even further by Monday and Tuesday. A
couple Heat Advisories may also be needed for parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Complex weather situation unfolding across the Land of Enchantment
early this evening with Gulf moisture pushing to nearly the
Continental Divide allowing for widely scattered coverage of
thunderstorms. KLVS highly likely (80%) to be impacted by strong
thunderstorms within the next hour which could produce large hail
and wind gusts up to 50 knots. Strong east canyon wind to impact
KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF until around 08Z, with an Airport Weather
Warning in effect for ABQ. Convective coverage should wane by
around 06-08Z, but MVFR ceilings forecast to develop along and
east of the central mountain chain with medium (50%) confidence
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms expected
to re-develop around mid-day Thursday, favoring central/western
NM this time, with more lighter showers/stratiform rain further
east.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A rich tap of moisture will continue pumping deeper moisture into NM
through Friday. Showers and storms over the area today will move
north to northeast with locally heavy rainfall, hail, and strong
winds along and east of the central mt chain. A second round of more
widespread rainfall is expected to move over the area late Thursday
through Friday with remnant moisture from TS Alberto. Burn scar
flash flooding will be a major concern with all recent burn areas,
as well as previous burns like HPCC. A ridge of high pressure will
begin building over the area Saturday while chances of showers and
storms decreases through early next week. Any storms that do form
will be moving slowly so locally heavy rain is still possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  92  61  86 /  10  60  80  70
Dulce...........................  49  83  49  76 /  30  60  70  80
Cuba............................  54  83  53  75 /  30  30  60  80
Gallup..........................  51  91  51  86 /   5  40  50  50
El Morro........................  56  84  56  78 /  10  30  50  60
Grants..........................  53  86  53  78 /  20  30  50  70
Quemado.........................  57  85  58  80 /  10  20  40  60
Magdalena.......................  62  82  61  74 /  20  30  70  80
Datil...........................  58  81  59  73 /  20  20  50  80
Reserve.........................  51  91  53  82 /  10  10  40  60
Glenwood........................  67  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  60
Chama...........................  46  78  46  71 /  40  60  60  80
Los Alamos......................  60  77  59  72 /  60  50  60  80
Pecos...........................  55  75  54  67 /  70  50  80  90
Cerro/Questa....................  47  78  47  72 /  50  50  50  70
Red River.......................  44  68  44  66 /  70  50  60  70
Angel Fire......................  40  72  40  68 /  70  50  50  70
Taos............................  51  82  51  76 /  40  40  50  70
Mora............................  48  72  49  68 /  80  50  60  80
Espanola........................  61  87  60  79 /  50  30  60  70
Santa Fe........................  60  78  59  71 /  70  40  70  80
Santa Fe Airport................  61  83  60  74 /  60  40  70  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  86  64  78 /  40  40  60  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  87  65  80 /  40  40  70  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  90  64  82 /  40  40  70  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  88  65  80 /  40  30  60  70
Belen...........................  62  91  63  84 /  30  20  60  60
Bernalillo......................  66  89  64  81 /  40  30  60  70
Bosque Farms....................  61  90  61  83 /  30  30  60  60
Corrales........................  63  89  62  81 /  40  30  60  70
Los Lunas.......................  61  91  61  83 /  30  30  60  70
Placitas........................  65  84  64  77 /  40  30  60  70
Rio Rancho......................  65  87  65  81 /  40  30  60  70
Socorro.........................  67  92  66  83 /  20  20  60  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  79  57  72 /  40  30  70  80
Tijeras.........................  61  82  60  75 /  40  40  70  80
Edgewood........................  60  80  59  75 /  40  40  60  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  81  55  76 /  40  40  60  80
Clines Corners..................  54  74  54  70 /  50  40  70  80
Mountainair.....................  58  81  58  75 /  30  30  70  70
Gran Quivira....................  57  81  57  76 /  30  40  60  80
Carrizozo.......................  64  83  65  79 /  30  40  70  60
Ruidoso.........................  57  74  57  71 /  40  60  80  80
Capulin.........................  55  76  55  72 /  80  40  30  50
Raton...........................  53  79  54  75 /  80  40  30  50
Springer........................  56  81  56  75 /  90  50  50  60
Las Vegas.......................  55  73  55  67 /  80  60  70  80
Clayton.........................  61  82  61  78 /  70  20  20  30
Roy.............................  59  77  59  72 /  90  60  60  70
Conchas.........................  63  83  63  79 /  80  40  60  60
Santa Rosa......................  62  78  62  76 /  80  50  70  60
Tucumcari.......................  63  85  63  83 /  50  30  40  30
Clovis..........................  63  82  64  83 /  30  40  50  30
Portales........................  63  82  64  84 /  30  40  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  65  81  65  81 /  80  40  60  40
Roswell.........................  70  86  69  87 /  40  60  70  40
Picacho.........................  63  78  62  77 /  50  60  80  70
Elk.............................  58  75  58  75 /  40  70  90  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ204-211-218-225.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ219.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...53