259
FXUS65 KABQ 180538 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The severe weather threat has come to an end across eastern NM
this evening. We still have our eyes on one lingering strong storm
north of Wagon Mound as the lone exception. Therefore the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch across the eastern plains and northern
mountains of NM is being cancelled.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Drier and warm Wednesday and Thursday behind today`s storm system
with some breezy southwest winds across the highlands and
northeast plains. Shower and storm chances return to eastern areas
Friday and Saturday ahead of another Pacific storm. Dry and breezy
conditions across western and central areas with cooler
temperatures Saturday. Dry and cool areawide Sunday with generally
warm and dry conditions early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A unseasonably deep 563 dam upper low is spinning over northern Utah
this afternoon progressing to the northeast towards the northern
Rockies. A punch of much drier mid level air is moving across the
southwest at the base of this low. This drier mid level air with
higher moisture at the surface (PWATs > 1 inch) along with the
progression of a Pacific cold front has resulted in the development
of scattered to numerous showers and storms across central NM and
the central mountain chain with fast motion the northeast at around
25 to 35 mph. Some of these storms are strong to severe due to
effective bulk shear values of 35 to 45 kts and MLCAPE values of
1000 to 2000 J/kg. Main threats with these storms as they move into
eastern NM will be severe wind gusts and large hail. Southwest to
west winds along and behind the front are pretty gusty with several
locations across central and western gusting around 30 to 40 mph.
Central areas will clear out later this afternoon and early evening
as the drier air behind the Pacific cold front sweeps through.

Strong to severe storms across eastern NM will exit into West Texas
around 9 PM with the Pacific front across eastern NM tonight into
tomorrow morning. Dewpoints across western and central will drop to
the mid 30s to low 40s and this drier air along with clear skies and
light winds will allow temperatures to cool efficiently into the
upper 30s and low 40s across northern and western valley areas with
low 50s across the middle and lower RGV. Some lingering surface
moisture across valley locations in the Gila, Tusa, and Jemez
Mountains and the Estancia Valley could result in some patchy fog
for these respective locations. Surface moisture will also linger
across the southeast plains and with much drier air moving aloft,
patchy fog cannot be ruled out here as well, but a light southeast
wind could help prevent fog development. Any fog will burn off
quickly after sunrise.

The 554 dam upper low moves northeast across the northern Rockies
Wednesday with dry west southwest flow across New Mexico. Winds will
be breezy across northeast NM at the base of a surface lee low over
eastern CO. This westerly flow will push higher surface moisture
across the eastern plains into West Texas with any storms that could
develop along the dryline doing so east of the state line. Westerly
flow will offset any cooling behind the Pacific front with near to
slightly below average temperatures across western and central New
Mexico and slightly above average temperatures across eastern NM due
to downsloping effects. Clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures
Wednesday night. Higher surface moisture moves back into far
southeast NM due to upper level flow backing in response to the next
upper low digging south along the California coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Another unseasonably deep upper low (around 2 to 3 standard
deviations below average) will be over southern San Joaquin Valley
with an 592 dam upper high over central Texas on Thursday. Brisk
southwest flow will remain over New Mexico with PWATs below 0.5
inches outside of southeast NM. Higher moisture in the form of PWATs
around an inch and dewpoints in the low 50s will be across southeast
NM due to surface return flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the
aformentioned  upper low. Mid level capping will be strong enough to
prevent any activity to develop across this part of the state.
Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple of degrees warmer compared
to Wednesday under mostly clear skies.

The upper low moves southeast over the CA Inland Empire during the
day Friday and just south of Las Vegas, NV Friday evening.
Increasing upper level divergence aloft ahead of the upper low
combined with higher surface and mid level moisture along and east
of the central mountain chain due to southeast return flow at the
surface with result in the development of scattered showers and
storms across this part of the state. Showers and storms will be
capable of becoming strong to severe due to higher MLCAPE values
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg along with effective bulk shear values
around 35 to 45 kts. Central and western areas will be dry with
breezy southwest flow. Deterministic and ensemble clusters are in
good agreement on the track of the upper low Friday night into
Saturday with the upper low moving northeast over the Four Corners
midday Saturday and into the central Great Plains come Saturday
night. This track will keep some shower and storm activity going
across northeast and east central NM Friday night with another
round Saturday afternoon before drier air moves in from the west
behind the Pacific cold front. Some storms across northeast NM
Saturday afternoon could become strong to severe due to higher
effective bulk shear and MLCAPE values. Temperatures cool by
5 to 10 degrees across western and central NM on Saturday behind the
Pacific front.

Drier air behind the system will allow temperature to efficiently
cool Saturday night Sunday morning with mid 30s to low 40s across
northern and western valley locations, 40s to near 50 in the middle
and lower RGV and 50s to near 60 across eastern NM. Sunday will be
dry with slightly below average temperatures across eastern NM
behind a backdoor front. Forecast uncertainty increases next week
due to differences in the upper level pattern. Slightly higher
moisture from low level return flow could bring some shower and
storm chances to eastern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
patches of low stratus/fog that could develop overnight across the
east central/southeast plains and southwest mountains. KROW may be
impacted by low stratus/fog early Wednesday morning, but forecast
confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. Otherwise,
gusty southwest winds will develop Wednesday afternoon across
eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A drier airmass will move tomorrow and Thursday for much of the
area before another next upper low approaches on Friday.
This system is forecast to bring back chances for wetting storms to
eastern NM Friday and Saturday. The upper low will also bring
dry and breezy to windy conditions to western and portions of
central NM. Cooler conditions will prevail over the weekend
in the wake of the departing system with generally warm and dry
conditions early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  73  35  78 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  40  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  77  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  37  79  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  77  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  48  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  42  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  42  79  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  68  38  72 /  10   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  52  74  55  78 /  10   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  46  74  49  79 /  20   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  40  71  44  74 /  30   0   0   5
Red River.......................  35  62  40  67 /  30   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  31  68  27  72 /  40   0   0   5
Taos............................  38  75  40  78 /  30   0   0   5
Mora............................  39  74  43  78 /  20   0   0   5
Espanola........................  46  80  46  84 /  20   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  48  75  52  79 /  20   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  45  78  48  82 /  20   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  80  58  84 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  82  55  86 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  84  52  88 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  82  55  86 /   5   0   0   5
Belen...........................  51  85  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  83  52  87 /   5   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  48  84  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  83  53  87 /   5   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  51  85  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  52  80  53  84 /  10   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  52  82  54  86 /   5   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  55  87  55  90 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  75  49  79 /  10   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  49  78  51  82 /   5   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  43  79  45  83 /   5   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  81  42  84 /   5   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  45  77  48  80 /   5   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  46  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  47  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  83  57  87 /   0   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  76  53  80 /   0   0   5  10
Capulin.........................  44  78  48  80 /  40   0   0   5
Raton...........................  44  81  45  83 /  40   0   0   5
Springer........................  44  83  44  86 /  30   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  43  77  45  81 /  10   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  56  85  56  87 /  50   0   0   5
Roy.............................  49  80  49  84 /  30   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  55  89  52  91 /  30   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  53  87  52  88 /  20   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  57  91  55  93 /  40   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  62  91  62  92 /  60   5   5   5
Portales........................  62  92  63  93 /  60   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  90  56  92 /  20   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  65  95  65  96 /  20   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  55  89  56  91 /   5   0   5   5
Elk.............................  53  85  55  88 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11