689
FXUS65 KABQ 162320 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Moisture from the remnants of former tropical storm Ileana have
moved into New Mexico, and a deep low pressure system is moving
towards the Great Basin in Nevada. This will lead to additional
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over mainly
western and north central New Mexico today and tonight. A few
strong to even severe storms will possibly produce hail and
damaging winds in these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop over similar areas again Tuesday morning before
spreading to eastern areas of New Mexico into the afternoon and
evening hours. Drier air will then sweep into New Mexico
eliminating rain chances from the area on Wednesday and likely
into Thursday as well. Moisture returns to eastern New Mexico
Friday, setting up a dryline that will trigger thunderstorms to
develop. A cold front will then impact northern and central New
Mexico Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light showers and low clouds across north central areas in
association with a lead mid level disturbance have kept things cool
and fairly stable across this part of the state early this afternoon
with temperatures still in the 50s and 60s. Low clouds have been
breaking up across far western NM allowing things to destabilize
quickly. Across eastern Arizona where skies were clear this morning,
higher instability and better jet dynamics closer to an upper low
over the Great Basin have allowed showers and storms to ignite
across this area. These storms will move into the increasing
instability across western NM where MLCAPE values are around 1000
J/kg. This combined with effective bulk shear values of 45 to 50 kts
will allow storms to organize and become strong to severe. Damaging
wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms due to storms
mixing down higher winds aloft to the surface. Large hail can`t be
ruled out but lower mid level lapse rates will help limit the large
hail threat. Storms will probably weaken as they move into central
NM and the upper and middle RGV later this evening due to higher
CIN/ lower instability due to this morning`s showers and cloud cover
with the damaging wind threat ending west of the RGV. Meanwhile,
storms are starting to develop across the northeast highlands, which
is on the edge of the higher CAPE and morning cloud shield some
storms have begin to develop. Storms are not expected to develop
across the eastern plains this afternoon due to a lack of CAPE and
mid level warm nose there.

Overnight, convection will wane for most across western and central
NM as the upper low moves east towards the NV/UT border. A LLJ
across eastern NM will result in upslope flow across the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains allowing shower and storm chances
to persist overnight. Rainfall amounts from most CAM guidance look
to be light, but elevated instability could result in some pockets
of locally heavier rainfall which is critical for the HPCC burn
scar. Low clouds will also be possible in Las Vegas around sunrise.
In the hours before sunrise, a 110 kt jet streak on the southeast
quadrant of the upper low circulation (southern UT/AZ) will help
storms fire up across east central AZ which will be under the
equatorial entrance region of this aformentioned jet streak and have
higher moisture in the upper 50s to near 60. This activity will move
into western NM around sunrise and impact Gallup and Farmington
before drier westerly flow moves in midday Tuesday.

Drier and gusty westerly flow will be quickly surging west to east
across the state on Tuesday with PWATS dropping to under half an
inch behind the Pacific front as the upper low moves northeast
towards Idaho and Wyoming. Downsloping will probably kill morning
convection across western NM before it enters the middle RGV and
ABQ Metro. However, the Pacific front looks to move through the
ABQ Metro during the lunchtime hour and this front combining with
some heating could allow a storm or two to pop over the metro
before the drier westerly flow moves in. Storms look to initiate
across the central mountain chain midday with fast motion to the
northeast due to the stronger flow aloft and drier westerly flow
in the wake. This will be great news for the HPCC and Ruidoso burn
scars. The Pacific front combining with PWATS around 1 to 1.25
inches, MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 40 kts will result in the development of
supercellular storms across eastern NM, growing upscale and
coalescing into a line as it approaches the Texas border come the
mid evening hours. Large hail will be the main threat initially
turning more into a damaging wind threat as the storms become more
linear. Storms exit into west Texas shortly after sunset with
clearing skies and quickly cooling temperatures overnight due to
the drier air moving in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Much drier southwesterly flow on Wednesday will eliminate shower
and thunderstorm potential. A hint of return flow from the Gulf of
Mexico will try to work into the far southeastern corner of NM,
mainly outside of our forecast area, but otherwise surface
dewpoints will stay in the upper 20`s and 30`s with PWATs around
0.3 to 0.4 inch. Daytime temperatures would run a few degrees
below average in the northwestern half of the forecast area while
the southeastern half would remain a few degrees above. With the
dry air and mostly clear skies in place, a cooler night would be
expected Wednesday night with Angel Fire likely dropping into the
mid 20`s as one of the cold spots in the CWA.

The upper low would move toward the CA-NV border on Thursday,
stiffening the southwesterlies over NM while keeping dry air
pushing in over most of the forecast area. Again, southeasterly
surface flow would advect some moisture into far southeastern NM,
and despite some higher dewpoints in our southeasternmost zones,
there is still a low probability for any storms to initiate on
this leading edge. Temperatures would gain a couple degrees on
Thursday, and like Wednesday, breezy conditions would persist,
mainly from the southwest outside of the aforementioned
southeasternmost zones that would be under return flow.

The upper low would then work into northwestern AZ on Friday,
having dug a bit farther south than its previous location on
Thursday. This will allow the return flow to be drawn farther into
eastern NM with juicier dewpoints in the 50`s that will boost
PWATs and increase afternoon CAPE/instability within a high
rising shear environment. This will yield strong to severe storms
in eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening. Into Friday night and
Saturday, the upper low will move toward the NM-CO border. While
the low itself will not bring significant moisture, a cold front
that will be sliding down the plains will merge with the low later
Saturday with strong frontogenesis and surface moisture
convergence potentially leading to an abrupt onset of
precipitation over north central to northeastern NM. The threat
for strong to severe storms could also be present and extend into
eastern NM again Saturday. Lower confidence still exists with the
finer details of Sunday`s forecast elements, mainly the surface
wind field with large differences in direction depending on the
low track and speed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Showers with embedded thunderstorm activity continues to stream
northeastward through western, central and northern NM this hour.
One batch is expected to bring variable gusty winds into the ABQ
metro b/w now and 02Z. This batch is expected to lose its strength
before reaching KSAF. Scattered shower activity is forecast to
continue over western and central NM overnight as subtropical
moisture continues to stream northward into NM ahead of an
approaching upper level storm system over the Pacific Coast.
IFR/MVFR ceilings will also be possible over the northern
mountains and adjacent highlands past midnight, including KLVS.
Drier air will push into western NM from AZ near 18Z Tuesday,
reaching the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon. This will shift
afternoon convection to along the central mountain chain before
reaching the eastern plains near the end of the TAF period 21Z to
00Z. There is potential for storms to become strong to severe
across the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected. An active near
term period as a storm system across the western US moves
northeast of New Mexico. Showers and storms favoring western and
central NM through early tomorrow shift to eastern NM along a
Pacific cold front Locally windy conditions may develop just east
of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon out ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, although the greater concern will be
strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
These strong storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande
Valley, but confidence is greatest along and east of the central
mountain chain. Most of the area will see wetting rainfall today
and/or Tuesday and a few locations could see over 1" after
repeated rounds of showers and storms. Moisture increases across
southeast NM late Thursday with dryline storms possible across
eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening as another Pacific low
approaches the state. Showers and storms possible across northeast
NM Saturday as the low swings through with drier and cooler
conditions areawide behind the system on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  75  45  80 /  60  80   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  67  34  74 /  90  90   0   0
Cuba............................  50  73  41  75 /  60  70   0   0
Gallup..........................  54  74  38  79 /  30  60   0   0
El Morro........................  50  71  41  74 /  30  40   0   0
Grants..........................  51  77  36  78 /  30  40   0   0
Quemado.........................  52  73  41  77 /  20  30   0   0
Magdalena.......................  56  79  48  79 /  30  30   0   0
Datil...........................  49  75  42  77 /  20  30   0   0
Reserve.........................  53  71  41  79 /  30  30   0   0
Glenwood........................  60  75  53  81 /  40  40   0   0
Chama...........................  44  61  34  68 /  80  90   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  74  50  74 /  60  70   5   0
Pecos...........................  53  72  46  75 /  60  70  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  49  68  41  70 /  60  70  10   0
Red River.......................  44  59  36  63 /  60  70  10   0
Angel Fire......................  45  67  30  67 /  50  70  10   0
Taos............................  49  73  37  74 /  60  70  10   0
Mora............................  47  71  39  74 /  50  80  10   0
Espanola........................  55  80  47  81 /  60  70  10   0
Santa Fe........................  56  74  47  75 /  60  60  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  56  79  45  79 /  60  60   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  83  54  80 /  50  50   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  84  52  82 /  50  50   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  86  50  84 /  40  40   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  84  52  82 /  40  50   0   0
Belen...........................  58  87  50  85 /  40  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  85  50  82 /  50  50   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  86  48  84 /  40  40   0   0
Corrales........................  60  85  51  83 /  50  50   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  87  50  84 /  40  40   0   0
Placitas........................  59  83  51  80 /  50  50   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  84  52  81 /  50  50   0   0
Socorro.........................  63  88  54  88 /  30  30   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  77  46  76 /  50  50   5   0
Tijeras.........................  56  80  48  77 /  50  50   5   0
Edgewood........................  52  79  43  78 /  50  60   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  80  41  80 /  50  60   0   0
Clines Corners..................  54  76  44  77 /  50  60   5   0
Mountainair.....................  54  78  46  79 /  40  40   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  54  78  47  80 /  40  30   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  60  82  55  83 /  30  30   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  75  51  77 /  30  50   5   5
Capulin.........................  53  76  45  77 /  10  60  30   0
Raton...........................  54  78  44  81 /  20  60  20   0
Springer........................  55  80  44  83 /  20  60  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  54  75  43  77 /  50  70  10   0
Clayton.........................  60  84  56  85 /  10  40  50   0
Roy.............................  57  79  49  80 /  40  70  40   0
Conchas.........................  61  86  54  88 /  40  70  30   0
Santa Rosa......................  60  83  53  85 /  50  70  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  88  57  88 /  30  60  50   0
Clovis..........................  63  88  62  91 /  10  40  60   5
Portales........................  63  89  62  90 /  10  40  60   5
Fort Sumner.....................  63  87  56  87 /  30  50  30   0
Roswell.........................  68  93  65  95 /  10  30  20   0
Picacho.........................  59  87  55  88 /  20  40  10   0
Elk.............................  56  84  53  84 /  20  40  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24