964
FXUS65 KABQ 150022 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
622 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Isolated showers and storms over the area today will end quickly
after sunset. Showers and storms will increase over the area on
Sunday as a portion of the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
Ileana drifts north from Mexico. These storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning
strikes. Rainfall chances will be the highest over western and
northern NM Sunday through Monday night then across central and
eastern NM Monday night through Tuesday. A few storms may become
strong to severe with hail and strong winds, especially closer to
the Texas state line Tuesday. Flash flooding may also occur near
wildfire burn scars. Drier and breezy weather is expected for the
rest of next week with warming temperatures through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

This afternoons forecast has already proved to be challenging with
warm moist advection already getting underway ahead of a deeper and
more prominent approach of moisture that is slated for tonight and
Sunday. The moisture is originating from tropical storm Ileana which
is just now making landfall near Los Mochis, MX. Mid to high level
moisture is most obvious on IR satellite imagery, already streaming
over southeastern NM. A few high-based showers and weak/drier
thunderstorms have taken shape over the Sangres, Sacramentos and
even some eastern plains areas. These have very small footprints and
are having to overcome very large surface dewpoint depressions.
These will translate to the far eastern border of NM through the
early evening before dwindling.

South southwesterly flow aloft should increase more tonight over NM
as the next Gulf of AK low drops toward the Pacific Northwest
states. This will start drawing in more notable PWAT increases (ABQ
currently near 0.45 should jump up to 0.6 by daybreak Sunday).
These PWAT increases will first lead to showers and storms over
western zones through the morning, but by afternoon Sunday
additional PWAT rises of another 0.1 to 0.2 will lead to more
showers and storms expanding to central and even some eastern zones.
The low will be sliding down the OR and northern CA coast Sunday
afternoon, causing southwesterlies to keep increasing, and 0-6 km
bulk shear will quickly rise to 25 to 35 kt in most areas, posing
concerns of strong to severe storms. DCAPE values are advertised to
be quite large at the onset of storms before surface dewpoint
depressions shrink, suggesting gusty to possibly damaging outflows
Sunday afternoon. This downburst threat would likely decrease into
the early evening as surface dewpoints rise more, and storms would
remain active well into Sunday night, especially over western zones
after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

By Monday, strengthening S/SW flow aloft ahead of a potent H5 low
over central CA will continue advecting abundant moisture northward
into NM. PWATs at KABQ rise to near 1.0" Monday (90th percentile for
mid September). Widespread cloud cover and lingering showers over
central and western NM in the morning will give way to increasing
coverage of storms by the afternoon. A 70-80kt subtropical jet will
provide large scale ascent over the region which will help increase
speed shear above backing low level wind profiles. A couple strong
storms may develop over northwest NM and SPC has highlighted a
Day 3 `Marginal Risk` for severe storms.

The greatest precip chances are expected Monday night as a second
speed max organizes over south-central AZ and moves to the northeast
into western NM. Meanwhile, a warm-core vort max with a localized
region of higher PWATs will eject quickly northward from Mexico out
ahead of the approaching speed max. This is presumably the remnant
circulation from former TS Ileana however models differ greatly on
the actual details. Nonetheless, the key message is widespread rain
with embedded storms are expected over much of western NM Monday
night. Locations favored for the higher QPF will depend on how this
complex interaction unfolds with time. The 12Z NBM probabilities for
>0.25" and >0.50" suggests the Cont Divide and northern mts will be
favored for the heavier QPF into Tuesday morning. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed during this period to cover rainfall over the
HPCC burn scar.

The focus then shifts to the potential for strong to severe storms
over eastern NM Tuesday as a sharp mid and upper level dry intrusion
spreads east with the upper level trough axis. The greatest model
differences Tuesday are with respect to the coverage of storms over
the northern high terrain, while there is very good agreement on
the convection over the eastern plains. Meanwhile, western NM will
become drier and breezy with slightly cooler temps.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature breezy S/SW winds with gradually
warming temps ahead of the next upper level trough developing over
the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions with light winds are forecast at all terminals
through tonight. Moisture returns Sunday for scattered showers and
thunderstorms most areas Sunday afternoon. Four Corners region
including KFMN will be the least likely terminal to see convection
Sunday afternoon. Light to moderate southwest breezes develop all
areas Sunday afternoon. Isolated strong storms are possible
areawide Sunday afternoon, potentially producing wind gusts to 50
kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Faint mid level moisture is starting to increase today, leading to
some weak showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central
mountain chain. Unfortunately, these will not provide much in the
way of appreciable rainfall, and most locations directly beneath
will only accumulate a few hundredths of an inch, if anything.
Otherwise light to moderate breezes will persist through the early
evening. Into tomorrow (Sunday), deeper moisture from tropical storm
Ileana will be entering into NM while a deep low pressure system
moves southward along the west coast. This will lead to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
night. The best chances for soaking rainfall will be found in
western NM with lesser chances in central to eastern areas Sunday,
and a few storms may turn strong to severe with gusty winds and
brief heavy downpours. Prevailing breezes will also increase with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph becoming more common on Sunday, and minimum
humidity will not be as low (generally ranging from 20 to 35 percent
with highest values in western zones). On Monday, the previously
mentioned low pressure system will move into the Great Basin of
Nevada, spreading any remnant tropical moisture northeastward over
more of NM. This will keep scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over most zones Monday with a concentration over
western and north central zones. Gusty winds, brief heavy downpours,
and possible wildfire burn scar flooding will be of concern Monday
while humidity rises and peaks. Drier air begins returning to
western and eventually central areas Tuesday, shoving storms to the
eastern half of NM. It should also be noted that prevailing winds
are forecast to strengthen Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (gusts of
25 to 35 mph becoming more common), and local storms would be
capable of enhancing these winds for brief periods. After exiting on
Wednesday, low level moisture will return and linger over far
eastern NM Thursday through the end of the work week, leading to
scattered strong dryline storms, but elsewhere a mostly dry and
breezy forecast will hold. A cold front could then arrive early next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  86  58  77 /   5  30  50  80
Dulce...........................  44  82  47  71 /   0  30  50  90
Cuba............................  52  80  51  73 /   0  40  50  90
Gallup..........................  47  82  51  76 /   5  40  50  70
El Morro........................  46  77  47  73 /  10  60  60  80
Grants..........................  46  81  49  76 /   5  60  50  80
Quemado.........................  49  78  48  76 /  10  60  60  70
Magdalena.......................  57  80  55  77 /   0  50  40  60
Datil...........................  48  77  48  74 /   5  60  40  70
Reserve.........................  50  83  49  78 /  10  60  50  70
Glenwood........................  58  86  57  80 /   5  50  40  60
Chama...........................  45  75  45  64 /   0  40  50  90
Los Alamos......................  58  80  56  74 /   0  40  40  80
Pecos...........................  52  81  51  72 /   0  40  40  80
Cerro/Questa....................  47  77  48  68 /   0  30  30  70
Red River.......................  38  70  40  61 /   0  40  30  80
Angel Fire......................  26  73  37  65 /   0  40  30  70
Taos............................  45  81  48  72 /   0  30  30  70
Mora............................  47  77  47  71 /   0  50  30  80
Espanola........................  54  87  55  80 /   0  30  40  70
Santa Fe........................  56  82  56  74 /   0  40  40  70
Santa Fe Airport................  54  85  55  78 /   0  30  40  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  85  59  81 /   0  40  50  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  87  61  83 /   0  40  40  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  89  55  85 /   0  40  40  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  87  60  83 /   0  30  40  60
Belen...........................  58  89  58  85 /   0  30  40  40
Bernalillo......................  58  88  58  84 /   0  30  40  60
Bosque Farms....................  55  89  54  84 /   0  30  40  50
Corrales........................  58  88  57  84 /   0  30  40  60
Los Lunas.......................  56  89  56  84 /   0  30  40  40
Placitas........................  58  85  57  80 /   0  30  40  60
Rio Rancho......................  60  87  59  82 /   0  30  40  60
Socorro.........................  63  91  61  87 /   0  40  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  80  54  75 /   0  40  40  70
Tijeras.........................  58  82  55  79 /   0  40  40  70
Edgewood........................  53  82  53  79 /   0  40  40  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  84  49  80 /   0  40  40  70
Clines Corners..................  54  80  51  76 /   0  40  40  60
Mountainair.....................  55  83  53  79 /   0  40  30  60
Gran Quivira....................  55  84  54  80 /   0  40  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  62  86  61  83 /   0  30  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  48  77  50  76 /   5  40  30  50
Capulin.........................  48  83  50  74 /   0  20  20  40
Raton...........................  49  86  50  77 /   0  30  10  50
Springer........................  48  87  52  79 /   0  30  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  50  82  50  75 /   0  40  30  70
Clayton.........................  59  90  60  84 /  20  20  20  20
Roy.............................  55  85  56  80 /   0  30  20  40
Conchas.........................  59  92  60  89 /   0  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  58  88  59  85 /   0  30  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  61  92  61  89 /  10  20  20  20
Clovis..........................  63  93  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
Portales........................  63  93  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  61  91  62  89 /   5  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  67  96  67  92 /   5   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  61  88  59  86 /   5  20  20  20
Elk.............................  58  85  56  83 /   5  30  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33