092
FXUS65 KABQ 131750 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot temperatures are expected today. Those working or recreating
outdoors should take plenty of breaks in the shade or air
conditioning, wear sunscreen and drink plenty of water. Watch for
the signs of heat illness. Cooler temperatures and the return of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday. Locally heavy
rainfall could pose a risk of flash flooding on the burn scars
across the Northern Mountains. The system bringing the rainfall
exits quickly Friday night, then warmer and drier conditions will
prevail into early next week. Breezy to windy conditions are also
likely Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The hottest day of the year to date is expected for many locations
across New Mexico with the state under a strong 596 dam upper
level ridge. Lower elevations will reach the mid to upper 90s due
to the mostly clear skies for most of the day. 100s are expected
across the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington, the middle
and lower RGV, including ABQ and Socorro, and all of the eastern
plains. Mid 100s are possible near the river in the ABQ Metro and
forecasted at Socorro and Roswell. With temperatures getting to
near the 100 degree mark and the experimental HeatRisk showing
areas of major impacts (level 3 out of 4) in parts of the Santa Fe
Metro, the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the capital
city. The upper level ridge will do an impressive job in limiting
storm chances, with just some high base cumulus across the
mountain ranges in the afternoon. As always it is a good reminder
to take proper heat precautions today. Limit time outdoors in the
afternoon. However, if you do have to be outdoors this afternoon,
make sure you stay hydrated and take frequent shade breaks. Also,
always check the backseat for your kids and pets so they are not
left behind in a hot vehicle.

There will be limited chances for some sprinkles and dry lightning
this evening across western NM due to increasing mid level moisture
ahead of an upper low moving into the desert SW. Additionally,
Clayton could see some gusty outflow winds late this evening from
some isolated storms in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle due to a
weakness on the northeast side of the upper level ridge. The upper
low in southern CA weakens and opens up as it moves into Arizona
tonight with the increasing moisture ahead of it resulting in a
thickening and lowering of clouds across western NM. This will keep
temperatures very mild overnight due to the clouds acting as a
blanket and preventing the heat of the day from escaping quickly.

The upper low opens up into a trough as it races northeast towards
the Four Corners come midday Friday with generally light
precipitation across western and central areas due to quick motion.
Better chances for wetting rainfall are expected across north
central and northeast NM midday Friday through Friday evening as the
trough axis races east along the CO/NM border and interacts with
some higher moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Have held off on a
Flash Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar due to QPF amounts dropping
in recent runs and the progressive northeast and east motion of
activity due to the quick motion of the shortwave trough axis. With
the clouds and precipitation, temperatures on Friday will be much
cooler compared to today, especially for locations along and north
of I40. The break from the heat for these locations will only be
temporary though...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The upper level trough will continue to slide eastward across
southern CO and northern NM Friday night. The focus for
precipitation will shift across northeast and east central NM in
the evening before diminishing prior to sunrise Saturday as the
trough axis shifts over the Texas Panhandle. Residual moisture in
the presence of a weak boundary across northeast NM may be a focus
for isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise, much drier conditions will prevail as a
stout mid level dry slot punches eastward across the state. The
lack of cloud cover and precipitation will allow temperatures to
rebound as well, with most locations near or just above normal
for mid June. Temperatures will continue to trend upward on Sunday
while precipitation chances trend downward. Another Heat Advisory
will likely be needed for the Roswell area as afternoon temps may
top out around 106F or so. A similar story is expected on Monday,
that is, hot and dry. However, winds will pick up as well as an
upper level low moves over the PacNW allowing southwest winds to
strengthen over NM. A surface low is also expected to deepen to
near 987-990 mb across southeast CO which will help to increase
wind speeds as well. Tuesday may be a few degrees cooler as
heights lower slightly, but it will still be hot, dry and breezy.
Thereafter, all eyes will be on a tropical wave in the Gulf of
Mexico. Southeasterly return flow starting Tuesday night and
continuing through mid week will increase moisture across NM and
should slightly increase precipitation chances by Wednesday and
moreso Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot temperatures will be widespread across northern and central
New Mexico today, and this will lead to high density altitude
readings that could pose poor aircraft performance issues. High-
based showers and thunderstorms will attempt to develop over the
high terrain and portions of eastern New Mexico, but only a few
sparse cells are expected to mature or survive, mainly into the
far eastern tier of the state. These showers and storms would be
prone to gusty downburst winds with only very small areas of
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late Friday
morning as the remnants of a Pacific storm cross north of the
state. These showers will be capable of producing more appreciable
rainfall, but still very gusty downburst winds and small hail
through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot and unstable conditions are expected areawide today due to high
pressure overhead. Increasing mid level moisture this evening ahead
of an upper low will result in a low threat for some dry lightning
across the high terrain of western NM that could lead to future fire
starts. The upper low will open up and race across the New Mexico
and Colorado border Friday bringing showers and storms across
northern and parts of central NM. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains
look to pick up the higher rainfall amounts of around 0.25 to 0.5
inches with lighter amounts for other locations. Drier air and
breezy conditions work into far southwest areas Friday afternoon
and this could result in some elevated fire weather conditions.
Hot and unstable conditions return areawide this weekend along
with increasing southwest breezes come early next week due to an
upper level low moving into the Pacific NW. This will result in
near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions for most
areas outside of far eastern NM early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  64  82  52 /   0  10  30   0
Dulce...........................  94  50  77  42 /   0   0  40  10
Cuba............................  93  57  77  49 /   0  10  60  10
Gallup..........................  96  55  81  46 /   5  20  40   0
El Morro........................  92  57  78  49 /  10  30  50   5
Grants..........................  95  56  79  46 /  10  20  50   5
Quemado.........................  92  58  86  52 /  10  30  40   0
Magdalena.......................  96  65  82  58 /   0  10  50  10
Datil...........................  93  61  83  55 /  10  20  40   5
Reserve.........................  95  55  89  46 /   5  30  30   0
Glenwood........................ 101  69  95  58 /   5  20  10   0
Chama...........................  87  50  73  43 /   0   5  60  20
Los Alamos......................  91  65  79  57 /   0   5  70  30
Pecos...........................  92  59  81  52 /   5   5  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  88  52  78  46 /   5   0  70  30
Red River.......................  79  48  72  42 /   5   5  80  40
Angel Fire......................  84  42  74  38 /   5   5  70  40
Taos............................  94  55  82  47 /   0   0  60  30
Mora............................  90  53  81  47 /  10   5  80  40
Espanola........................  98  62  87  55 /   0   0  60  30
Santa Fe........................  96  64  82  56 /   0   5  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  99  63  85  54 /   0   5  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills........... 100  69  88  61 /   0   5  50  20
Albuquerque Heights............. 102  69  89  62 /   0   5  40  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 104  68  91  61 /   0   5  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 102  69  88  61 /   0   5  40  20
Belen........................... 105  66  91  58 /   0  10  40  20
Bernalillo...................... 103  68  90  60 /   0   5  50  20
Bosque Farms.................... 104  65  91  57 /   0   5  40  20
Corrales........................ 102  67  90  59 /   0   5  40  20
Los Lunas....................... 104  65  91  58 /   0  10  40  20
Placitas........................ 100  68  86  59 /   0   5  50  20
Rio Rancho...................... 102  69  88  61 /   0   5  40  20
Socorro......................... 104  71  94  63 /   0  10  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  94  64  81  56 /   0   5  50  30
Tijeras.........................  97  65  84  57 /   0   5  50  30
Edgewood........................  97  62  86  54 /   0   5  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  98  57  87  50 /   0   5  50  30
Clines Corners..................  93  59  81  52 /   5   5  60  40
Mountainair.....................  96  62  86  55 /   0   5  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  97  62  88  54 /   5  10  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  99  67  93  63 /  10  10  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  89  62  86  56 /  20  10  60  30
Capulin.........................  94  57  82  52 /  20  10  60  50
Raton...........................  98  57  85  51 /  10   5  70  30
Springer........................ 100  57  86  52 /  10   5  60  40
Las Vegas.......................  94  57  81  52 /  10   5  70  50
Clayton......................... 101  65  91  59 /  20  20  40  50
Roy.............................  98  62  86  56 /  20  10  60  60
Conchas......................... 105  67  94  60 /  10  10  40  60
Santa Rosa...................... 101  66  90  59 /  10   5  50  60
Tucumcari....................... 102  67  94  61 /  20  20  30  60
Clovis.......................... 100  68  95  64 /  20  20  10  60
Portales........................ 101  68  96  64 /  20  20  10  60
Fort Sumner..................... 102  69  96  63 /  10  10  30  60
Roswell......................... 107  73 101  70 /  20  20  20  30
Picacho......................... 100  66  94  61 /  10  10  40  30
Elk.............................  95  64  94  58 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-209-218>221-
225-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52