427
FXUS65 KABQ 102331 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The threat of moderate to heavy rainfall from showers and
thunderstorms has passed and the Flood Watch for flash flooding
over the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar has been cancelled.
Light showers continue in the area, but the risk for any flash
flooding is near zero.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger through this
evening over northern and eastern areas as a storm system slowly
exits to the east. A warming trend will then commence Tuesday
through Thursday with high temperatures peaking Thursday around 4
to 14 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages. It will feel very hot
Thursday with high temperatures reaching near and above 100
degrees in many lower elevation locations, including Farmington,
Albuquerque, Espanola, Fort Sumner, Portales, Socorro, and
Roswell. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to return on Tuesday mainly over the mountains and across
east central and northeast areas. After drier conditions with
fewer storms Wednesday and Thursday, a storm system will pass
eastward across the region causing showers and thunderstorms to
become fairly widespread again Friday and Saturday with cooling
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The upper low is currently over east central NM per the latest
satellite and radar imagery and is forecast to move east into the TX
Panhandle tonight, while an upper level ridge builds up along the
AZ/NM border Tuesday and shifts slowly east into the area through
Tuesday night. A round of convection is taking off south of the
upper low circulation over southeast portions of our area currently
where surface based instability is greatest, however the shear
profile is unimpressive and is limiting the severe threat. Small
hail is still likely with these storms, but will have a hard time
getting much larger than pennies. A Flash Flood Watch continues for
the HPCC burn scar and with showers moving in from the east around
the upper low circulation and given yesterday`s rainfall, the threat
persists. Showers and storms will gradually diminish with the loss
of daytime heating tonight and a slow clearing from west to east
will progress into Tuesday. Some wet surfaces combined with high
humidity in the lowest portion of the boundary layer will provide a
setup for low stratus/fog development overnight, but clearing
associated with the departing upper low may not be well timed for
ideal radiational cooling and fog development. Low forecast
confidence in fog overnight, but did add some patches in the RGV and
east central plains early Tuesday morning. Warmer temperatures are
forecast areawide Tuesday as pressure heights trend up rapidly with
the building ridge, with highs forecast 10-15 degrees warmer than
today`s. The added heating will help to generate a little more in
the way of instability Tuesday afternoon and combined with the
residual moisture will produce a round of convection that will favor
the northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Very low potential
for severe storms Tuesday given forecast 0-6km bulk shear of only
10-20kts and sbCAPE values of 700-1500J/kg. Tuesday`s crop of
convection will follow a normal diurnal downtrend and diminish
during the evening hours. Low stratus and fog may develop late
Tuesday night across the eastern plains given clearing overnight and
moist southerly flow in the lowest portion of the boundary layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Depending on the model, a high pressure system crossing the
forecast area from the west on Wednesday and Thursday is forecast
to reach between 594-597 DAM at 500 mb. This will send high
temperatures soaring near to around 9 degrees above 1991-2020
averages on Wednesday, and around 4 to 14 degrees above the
averages on Thursday. A backdoor front that sags into northeast
areas Tuesday night and Wednesday morning may deliver enough
moisture for a chance of showers and thunderstorms over and east
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Wednesday afternoon. A moist
southeasterly return flow in the low levels also looks to develop
along the east slopes of the south central mountains helping to
produce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms there
Wednesday and Thursday. However, the moisture looks limited enough
for mainly dry and gusty showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the south central mountains on Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will become widespread again
Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system approaches the Four
Corners from the southwest, then migrates eastward across southern
CO or northern NM (depending on the model) as an open wave. North
central, northeast, and east central parts of the forecast area
are forecast to accumulate around 0.25-1.25" of rain during this
period with locally higher amounts and a risk of flash flooding on
the Hermit`s Peak Burn Scar. In the wake of the weather system,
dry southwesterly flow will become gusty over the forecast area on
Sunday, but enough moisture may linger for a slight chance of
mainly dry thunderstorms over and just east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A well defined upper low is centered over east-central NM near
KTCC this hour. Scattered light showers continue to spin southward
through the northern mountains and Rio Grande Valley and eastward
through the eastern plains with near stationary showers at its
center by KTCC. A mix MVFR/IFR with mountain obscurations can be
expected in the high terrain of central and northern NM this hour,
steadily clearing out through the overnight period. Abundant low
level moisture will allow for the potential for fog/mist and IFR
ceilings to develop overnight. However, forecast confidence in
this is very low given the broken to overcast skies over the
entire forecast area expected to persist overnight. Have included
generic mentions of this at KABQ and KAEG, and KLVS and KTCC.
Amendments will be necessary overnight to address any localized
fog and low cloud development. Otherwise, conditions will clear
west to east through Tuesday. A few isolated to scattered storms
are favored to develop over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains moving
east to southeast over the high plains generally north of I-40
Tuesday afternoon. A PROB30 has been included at KLVS for this
potential.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High humidity and wetting rain from showers and storms continues
across much of the area due to an upper low, currently over east
central NM. The upper low will be replaced with a building ridge
over the region from Tuesday through Thursday, but sufficient
residual moisture will remain Tuesday afternoon for a round of
wetting storms that will favor the northern mountains and adjacent
highlands. Hot, dry and unstable conditions associated with the
building ridge will gradually spread from west to east across the
area through Thursday. A Pacific low will approach Friday and move
over the region through Saturday, bringing increased winds and
chances for wetting storms to northern and eastern NM. The track of
the low is still uncertain, with the potential for brief critical
fire weather conditions across far wester NM Friday afternoon. Broad
troughing along the west coast may extend far enough east across the
Intermountain West to bring breezy to locally windy conditions to
much of NM early next week, with at least some potential for
critical fire weather conditions across western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  94  56  99 /  20   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  88  44  93 /  30  20   5   0
Cuba............................  51  86  51  92 /  30  20  10   0
Gallup..........................  47  91  46  96 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  50  86  50  89 /  10  10   5   0
Grants..........................  48  89  48  94 /  10  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  52  88  53  91 /   5   5   5   0
Magdalena.......................  57  88  60  92 /  10  20  10   5
Datil...........................  54  86  56  90 /  10  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  45  93  47  97 /   5  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  97  63 101 /   5   5   0   0
Chama...........................  44  80  45  85 /  70  50   5  10
Los Alamos......................  57  82  59  87 /  40  40  10  10
Pecos...........................  51  81  52  88 /  40  50  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  46  77  46  82 /  60  50  20  20
Red River.......................  43  69  43  76 /  60  60  20  20
Angel Fire......................  40  73  38  80 /  50  60  20  20
Taos............................  48  82  47  89 /  50  30  10  10
Mora............................  47  77  47  86 /  50  60  20  20
Espanola........................  54  89  56  95 /  40  30  10   5
Santa Fe........................  55  83  57  89 /  50  40  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  53  87  56  94 /  40  20  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  89  64  95 /  30  20  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  90  63  98 /  30  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  92  63 101 /  20  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  91  62  98 /  30  10  10   0
Belen...........................  56  94  58 100 /  20   5  10   0
Bernalillo......................  57  91  62  99 /  40  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  93  58 100 /  20  10  10   0
Corrales........................  56  92  59  99 /  30  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  93  58 100 /  20  10  10   0
Placitas........................  58  88  62  94 /  40  20  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  91  62  98 /  30  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  62  96  64 102 /  10   5  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  83  57  89 /  40  20  20   5
Tijeras.........................  55  85  58  92 /  40  20  20   5
Edgewood........................  52  84  54  92 /  40  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  86  48  93 /  30  20  20   0
Clines Corners..................  50  81  52  87 /  40  30  20   5
Mountainair.....................  53  86  54  92 /  20  10  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  52  87  53  92 /  20  10  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  60  90  61  96 /  20  10  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  54  82  55  88 /  10  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  50  78  53  86 /  20  60  20  20
Raton...........................  51  83  51  90 /  20  60  20  20
Springer........................  52  84  52  91 /  20  60  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  50  79  51  87 /  30  60  20  10
Clayton.........................  56  84  59  91 /  20  30  10  10
Roy.............................  54  82  56  88 /  20  50  20  10
Conchas.........................  55  87  59  95 /  40  30  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  55  84  58  93 /  30  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  55  86  58  94 /  40  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  60  84  61  92 /  50  10   5   0
Portales........................  59  86  59  93 /  50  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  88  60  94 /  30   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  66  95  67  98 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  58  89  59  93 /  20  30  10  20
Elk.............................  55  87  56  92 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24