375
FXUS65 KABQ 210557 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Scattered showers and storms and breezy conditions continue across
NM today, with storms focused in the east. Strong to severe storms
are possible across the eastern plains Saturday, with the highest
confidence being across the southeast. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the main threats with a nonzero, but low, threat
for a tornado. Conditions mellow out on Sunday and into Monday,
where temperatures could be as much as 20 degrees below average
across far northeast areas. Shower and storm chances could return
to the area on Tuesday, but forecast confidence for the middle of
next week remains low. Temperatures will warm and storm chances
steadily decrease going into the latter portion of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

100 kt southwesterly phased jet extends from northern Baja
northeastward into southwestern Minnesota early this afternoon. This
jet is the strong wind field between a deep closed low over
Oceanside, CA and the monsoon high centered over TX. Hi-res and
global models agree in bringing the closed low slowly eastward into
southwest AZ by sunrise Saturday. The flow ahead of this feature is
forecast to back or turn more southerly on Saturday, helping to
continue the deep mid and low level moisture fetch into central and
especially eastern NM where the NAM12 is forecasting values
approaching ~ 1.75" at 18Z Saturday. At the same time, the above
mentioned jet weakens somewhat at as moves over NM during the day
Saturday, but remains plenty strong (~ 85 kt) for impressive bulk
sheer values over eastern NM ranging between 40-55 kt Saturday
afternoon. SPC made little change to the Slight Risk for east
central and southeast NM for Saturday afternoon. The marginal risk
covers all of eastern NM extending northwestward to the upper RGV
including Taos, Arroyo Seco, Questa and Costilla. Large hail and
severe winds are the main hazards but an isolated tornado remains
possible. The northeast plains may struggle with instability
initially in the early afternoon while the higher upper 50s and low
60s sfc dewpoints make it farther north during the mid and late
afternoon. Closed low over AZ is progged to lift northeastward to
over the Four Corners around sunset Saturday. Meanwhile, a backdoor
cold front is forecast to make its way to the southwest Saturday
evening, keeping showers and thunderstorms going over the northeast
third of the state Saturday evening. Dry air aloft is expected to
overtake central and western NM Saturday night while lingering low
level easterly flow continues to keep eastern areas cloudy and cool
with areas of drizzle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The 500mb low will propagate into the central US on Sunday, taking
our recent active weather with it. Behind a backdoor front that will
begin to intrude Saturday evening/Sunday morning, temperatures will
be starkly below average over the CWA, with places in eastern and
northeast NM being as much as a 20F departure from normal. Remnant
isolated showers from our recent storm system are possible, but
would be confined to the far southeast areas near the Texas border.
As the front continues to push down the eastern plains and creep
westward towards the central mountain chain, an east canyon wind
could develop through the Rio Grande Valley Sunday evening, but is
expected to remain light. West-northwest upper level flow
envelopes the state on Monday and push out the cooler air from the
front, bringing temperatures closer to average. Modest moisture
will be present within the flow ahead of the next storm system,
allowing for isolated storm chances again for the northeast.

Significant model disagreement continues to rear its ugly head
Monday night and beyond. Deterministic models and ensemble clusters
have a poor grasp on the track and evolution of a shortwave diving
south over the Rockies, which is limiting forecast confidence
Tuesday. There is agreement in the potential for showers and storms
returning to the area Tuesday afternoon, but vast differences in
overall coverage. GFS develops showers and storms across far eastern
areas before moving into Texas due to lift ahead of the shortwave
over the southern High Plains. On the other hand, the ECMWF digs
this shortwave further south and west eventually closing into a low
centered over north central NM Tuesday evening which, combined with
a backdoor front at the surface, would provide ample moisture and
lift for more widespread showers and storms across much of the
state. A noticeable eastward trend of these features has been
apparent over the past few runs, which would favor GFS solutions of
the precipitation focusing more into Texas rather than NM. NBM PoPs
seemed to favor ECMWF solutions. With low confidence in the
development and evolution of the feature, decided to continue to
stay with NBM PoPs with only slight adjustments. Even with hefty
disagreements in the latest model runs, a drying/warming trend is
forecast for the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Deterministic models show weak upper level flow and drier air making
its way into the region due to upper level ridging over northwest
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Unsettled weather will continue to impact the eastern half of New
Mexico tonight into Saturday. Through the morning, expect
increasing areas of MVFR (ceilings less than 3000ft and visibility
at or less than 5 miles) and isolated pockets of IFR (ceilings
less than 1000ft and visibility less than 3 miles). The lowest
ceilings and visibilities are forecast to be near KLVS, KCQC, KSXU
and vicinity through 21/1600UTC or so. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will also provide occasional downpours in eastern
New Mexico through dawn before expanding to central and north
central areas in the mid to late morning. Showers and
thunderstorms could then even develop in portions of northwestern
New Mexico near KFMN by the afternoon. A cold front will then
enter northeastern New Mexico, with thunderstorms turning strong
to severe as the front arrives into east central New Mexico in the
late afternoon Saturday. Large hail, gusty downburst winds, and
frequent lightning will be observed there. Short-lived pockets of
low ceilings and light rain/drizzle may be possible in eastern
areas Saturday night with precipitation in other areas generally
coming to an end.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

With a slow moving upper low over southern CA and the monsoon high
anchored over TX, moisture will continue to stream north and
northeastward over central and especially eastern NM today through
Saturday. Increasing southwest winds ahead of the CA low in western
and central portions of the forecast area will likely hit critical
conditions for a brief time Saturday afternoon, until the backdoor
front forces it back west Sunday morning. Monday continues to look
dry for all but the far northeast with temperatures starting to
rebound to near average levels. A high amplitude ridge of high
pressure attempts to team up with the monsoon high Tuesday and
Wednesday, resulting in more hot weather for the Great Basin and
cooler, wetter weather for much of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  73  45  73 /   0  60  10   0
Dulce...........................  41  73  33  69 /   5  80  40   5
Cuba............................  50  70  40  69 /  10  60  10   0
Gallup..........................  42  68  36  74 /   0  50   0   0
El Morro........................  45  67  38  71 /   0  40   0   0
Grants..........................  44  71  37  74 /   0  30   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  70  38  72 /   0  20   0   0
Magdalena.......................  56  76  45  73 /  10  10   0   0
Datil...........................  46  71  39  71 /   0  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  44  75  39  81 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  78  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  43  70  33  63 /   5  80  50  10
Los Alamos......................  55  71  45  66 /  20  60  30   0
Pecos...........................  53  70  43  66 /  40  70  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  48  69  38  63 /  10  80  70  20
Red River.......................  42  58  32  53 /  10  80  70  20
Angel Fire......................  38  61  27  59 /  20  80  60  20
Taos............................  48  71  36  66 /  10  70  60   5
Mora............................  46  66  36  61 /  30  90  50  20
Espanola........................  53  80  44  74 /  20  60  40   0
Santa Fe........................  56  73  45  68 /  40  60  30   5
Santa Fe Airport................  56  78  44  72 /  30  50  30   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  81  49  76 /  30  30  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  82  51  78 /  30  30   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  84  47  79 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  83  48  78 /  20  20   5   0
Belen...........................  56  84  45  79 /  20  20   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  83  47  79 /  20  30  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  83  43  79 /  20  20   0   0
Corrales........................  59  84  48  79 /  20  30  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  83  45  79 /  20  20   0   0
Placitas........................  57  80  47  75 /  30  40  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  81  49  78 /  20  30  10   0
Socorro.........................  63  88  50  82 /  20  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  74  44  69 /  30  50  10   0
Tijeras.........................  52  77  45  72 /  30  40  10   0
Edgewood........................  49  77  42  72 /  30  50  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  78  44  73 /  40  50  10   0
Clines Corners..................  52  73  43  65 /  50  60  20   5
Mountainair.....................  53  77  43  72 /  40  30   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  77  42  72 /  40  40   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  82  49  78 /  50  40   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  73  45  70 /  50  50   0   5
Capulin.........................  52  64  40  52 /  20  90  80  20
Raton...........................  50  65  42  59 /  10  90  80  20
Springer........................  51  66  45  64 /  20  90  70  10
Las Vegas.......................  50  66  41  64 /  40  80  50  10
Clayton.........................  60  66  49  62 /  40  80  90  10
Roy.............................  55  65  47  63 /  40  90  80  10
Conchas.........................  60  72  53  69 /  60  90  70  10
Santa Rosa......................  58  71  51  66 /  70  80  50   5
Tucumcari.......................  60  74  53  66 /  60  70  80  10
Clovis..........................  65  80  58  69 /  30  80  70  20
Portales........................  65  83  59  73 /  30  70  60  20
Fort Sumner.....................  62  81  56  71 /  60  80  50  10
Roswell.........................  70  91  61  81 /  30  40  20   5
Picacho.........................  60  86  50  76 /  40  50   5   0
Elk.............................  57  86  48  77 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52