749
FXUS65 KABQ 262023
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Historically high moisture is moving across NM for today and
Thursday causing rain showers and thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall
will be possible from any rain shower and thunderstorms which can
rapidly cause flash flooding. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
may occur mainly in NE NM with hail, winds, and torrential rainfall
being the main threats. Lower moisture on Friday should lead to a
brief reduction in the rain showers and thunderstorms activity. The
weekend and next week will see abnormally high amounts of moisture
push back across NM leading to further vigorous rain showers and
thunderstorms that may produce torrential rainfall. Dont go into
flood waters. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Today and Thursday has historic amounts of moisture moving across
NM. For today the PWAT is 1 in to 1.75 in across NM which put it in
the top 10% to max of moisture events for this time of the year. For
Thursday the moisture amounts decrease a little for PWAT of 1 in to
1.5 in which puts it in the top 10% to top 1% of moisture events for
this time of the year. This shear amount of moisture will allow any
rain shower or thunderstorms to produce torrential amounts of
rainfall. This torrential rainfall can rapidly cause flash flooding
that can sweep away people and vehicles. Flood waters are deadly and
easily hide their danger do not go into them even if it looks safe.
TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN!

Today the rain showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across
much of NM and will continue to do so into the overnight hours.
These storms will be supported by the passage of a weak upper level
trough moving across the N side of the high pressure. The
thunderstorms today have very little storm motion so they will drift
around with small footprints. In NE NM there will be higher levels
of shear and instability which will allow for a few of the storms
this afternoon and evening to become strong to severe. The main
threat for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be damaging
winds, torrential rainfall, and large hail. The thunderstorms will
persist into the overnight hours with the overall activity and
intensity of the storms decreasing. This is due to them losing both
daytime heating and the support of the weak trough. The rain showers
and thunderstorms activity will increase again during Thursday
morning as daytime heating adds to the instability across NM. The
high pressure that was sitting across NM should become flattened due
to the passage of the early trough on Wednesday and the deepening of
a trough to the NW of the region. This flattened high pressure will
allow westerly winds to setup aloft that will give the rain showers
and thunderstorms a more progressive eastward movement increasing the
area they can impact. These storms should in general be stronger as
the increase winds aloft will allow them to vent better. A few
storms could become strong to severe across the northern third of NM
with damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and large hail being the
main threats. Eventually the westerly winds will push the moisture
out of NM which will cause the rain showers and thunderstorms to
diminish during the late afternoon through the evening hours. Then by
the overnight hours the rain showers and thunderstorms should in
large have ceased across NM. The silver lining of all this moisture
is that will help to prevent NM from getting to hot. This will see
the highs in the 90s to low 100s today fall to the 80s and 90s for
Thursday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the end of
the week through mid next week as moisture causes rain showers and
thunderstorms each day.

Friday should a relative minimum for the rain showers and
thunderstorms as the flattened high pressure will allow westerly
winds to push moisture out of NM. The little remaining moisture will
still allow for a few rain showers and thunderstorms to form. These
should in large produce more limited rainfall but in the SE portions
of NM where moisture still remains elevated heavier rainfall may
still occur. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter
side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. The highs
in the hottest spot could even reach heat advisory levels during the
afternoon and evening.

Then for the weekend the high has a moderately high chance of
pushing back to the west setting up a similar pattern to today and
Thursday. This pattern is still showing signs of pushing in another
round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This batch of
abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the top 10% of
moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.4
inch range. This moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico pushing
into NM from the SE. The moisture coupled with daytime heating will
allow for further rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms each day.
These storms could be capable of producing copious amounts of
rainfall due to just how moist the environment is expected to be. To
further complicate the scenario there is a low to moderate chance
that a cold front will push NE to SW across NM late on Saturday.
This front would then stall in the central portions of NM around the
Albuquerque area. If this front does materialize then prior to its
stalling it may act as a forcing mechanism that can organize and
intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it stalls it would
still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns it increasing rain
intensity and amounts around and along the front. So this front
could prove a key feature during this weekend for rainfall chances
if it does manage to push its way into NM. With all the moisture and
dynamics that may be in play flooding remains a large concern across
NM for the weekend.

Monday to Wednesday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally
high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and
thunderstorms each day. This moisture seems to get pushed more to
the western and northern portions of NM as a more typical monsoon
pattern sets up. This would mean that western to central and
northern NM will have better chances to see the rain and
thunderstorms compared to eastern NM. Flooding remains a concern for
NM so long as the abnormally high moisture is present.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Main forecast challenge is timing of convection and duration at
TAF sites across the Land of Enchantment. Inherited TAF`s largely
in great shape so incorporated just a few timing tweaks from
latest run of HRRR. TEMPO groups include mention of gusty winds.
Brief small hail and IFR conditions cannot be ruled out, but not
confident enough to explicitly put in TAF`s. KTCC has relatively
highest chance of being impacted by strong/severe storms later
this afternoon. Amendments are likely as thunderstorms develop
through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Historic levels of moisture are present over NM today and Thursday.
For today this is causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms
that are already producing torrential rainfall. The overall storm
motion is a weak drift with the storms producing fairly small rain
foot prints. However the slow motions is allowing a vast amount of
rainfall to accumulate over small areas within a short amount of
time. This setup can rapidly lead to flash flooding and life
threatening debris flows on any fire area or burn scar. Thursday
should see the storm motion become a little more progressive with
storms moving generally eastward at 15 to 25 mph. However this
motion may allow for the storms to be generally stronger with higher
rain rates. So Thursday will still have continued threat for flash
flooding and life threatening debris flows on any of the fire areas
or burn scars. Friday should see a brief reprieve with lesser rain
and thunderstorms chances with lower levels of moisture over NM.
Then for the weekend another batch of extremely high moisture surges
back across NM leading to further rounds of vigorous rain showers
and thunderstorms. These rain showers and thunderstorms are already
looking very favorable to produce copious to torrential rainfall.
The threat for these very wet storms will persist through to mid
next week. The silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH
remains elevated with excellent overnight recoveries. Flood waters
can easily sweep away people, vehicles, and roads. STAY ALIVE! DO
NOT DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS!

SH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  86  63  92 /  50  60  20   0
Dulce...........................  53  82  48  86 /  50  70  20   5
Cuba............................  59  80  57  85 /  70  80  30   5
Gallup..........................  57  83  56  89 /  50  70  20   0
El Morro........................  58  79  58  84 /  70  80  30   5
Grants..........................  58  83  56  89 /  80  80  20  10
Quemado.........................  60  81  58  85 /  50  70  30  10
Magdalena.......................  65  83  64  88 /  60  80  40  10
Datil...........................  61  80  60  84 /  60  80  30  20
Reserve.........................  58  87  56  92 /  60  70  20  10
Glenwood........................  70  94  68  97 /  40  50  10  10
Chama...........................  52  76  48  81 /  60  80  30  10
Los Alamos......................  64  79  61  84 /  60  90  30  10
Pecos...........................  60  81  61  86 /  60  70  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  50  77  47  82 /  60  80  30  10
Red River.......................  50  70  48  75 /  60  80  30  10
Angel Fire......................  48  75  47  80 /  50  80  20   5
Taos............................  58  81  53  88 /  60  70  20   5
Mora............................  55  81  55  85 /  50  70  20  10
Espanola........................  64  86  61  92 /  60  70  20   5
Santa Fe........................  63  81  61  87 /  60  70  30   5
Santa Fe Airport................  64  84  61  89 /  60  70  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  87  68  92 /  60  70  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  89  67  94 /  60  60  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  91  67  96 /  50  50  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  88  68  94 /  50  60  20   5
Belen...........................  68  91  66  97 /  60  60  30   5
Bernalillo......................  69  89  68  95 /  50  60  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  66  91  64  96 /  60  60  30   0
Corrales........................  69  90  68  95 /  50  60  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  68  91  66  96 /  60  60  30   0
Placitas........................  67  86  66  91 /  60  70  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  69  88  68  94 /  50  60  20   5
Socorro.........................  71  93  70  98 /  60  60  40   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  81  63  86 /  60  70  30   5
Tijeras.........................  65  84  63  89 /  60  70  30   5
Edgewood........................  62  85  61  89 /  60  60  30   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  86  59  91 /  60  60  30   5
Clines Corners..................  60  81  60  87 /  60  60  30   0
Mountainair.....................  62  84  61  89 /  70  70  40   5
Gran Quivira....................  62  84  62  89 /  70  70  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  68  89  68  94 /  70  70  50  10
Ruidoso.........................  62  80  63  86 /  60  80  40  30
Capulin.........................  60  83  59  88 /  50  60  10  10
Raton...........................  60  87  58  92 /  30  60  10   5
Springer........................  63  88  61  94 /  30  60  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  60  82  60  87 /  60  70  20   5
Clayton.........................  68  89  68  97 /  50  30  10   5
Roy.............................  64  86  64  92 /  60  50  10   5
Conchas.........................  69  93  70  99 /  70  30  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  68  88  68  94 /  60  50  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  69  94  72 101 /  60  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  71  95  72 100 /  50  20  10   5
Portales........................  71  96  73 100 /  40  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  92  71  99 /  60  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  75 100  76 104 /  50  20  20  10
Picacho.........................  68  91  67  95 /  50  70  30  30
Elk.............................  64  90  64  93 /  60  70  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ202-204>207-211-214-215-
217-222-223-226-229-233-239.

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
NMZ201-202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...53