Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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536 FXUS65 KABQ 261758 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The threat of flash flooding from locally heavy rainfall peaks today and Thursday. Slow moving storms developing over the high terrain will put recent burn scars under the gun this afternoon and evening. This remains true Thursday, albeit with faster storm motions. After a break in precipitation chances Friday, a return of moisture enters eastern NM with thunderstorms and heavy rain favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent high plains of eastern NM. Sunday sees monsoonal moisture shift the main daily thunderstorm chances and threat of flash flooding to the western half of the forecast area. This shift in daily thunderstorm activity over western and northern NM looks to stay true well into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A pattern more typical of late July and early August will impact the region thru Thursday. The 00Z KABQ PWAT of 0.89" was near the 90th percentile for late June and that was actually lower than the past few days. The latest water vapor and composite radar shows a well- defined perturbation near Flagstaff, AZ drifting northeast toward the Four Corners on the western periphery of the upper level high. The 700-500mb high centroid will drift east into the TX panhandle today and allow deepening southeast flow to advect abundant Gulf moisture into NM. The combination of deep moisture, strong heating, abundant instability, orographic forcing, and lift with the Four Corners disturbance will allow numerous showers and storms to form over NM this afternoon. 00Z PWATs are progged to increase to near 1.2" at KABQ with values closer to 1.7" over the southeast plains. Slow storm motions with abnormally high moisture will allow any cells that form to produce torrential rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include portions of western NM where 00Z CAMs indicated cells developing over the high terrain of western NM then drifting northward toward Gallup by late day. Northeast NM will be under the influence of stronger west/northwest flow aloft which will increase the potential for strong to severe storms. Effective bulk shear values near 30kt will exist in an environment with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg with strengthening moist, low level southeasterly inflow. Storms that form over the Raton Ridge are likely to develop upstream into a cluster of storms with hail and damaging winds as cold pools strengthen early this evening. The latest SPC Convective Outlook shows a large `Slight Risk` area for northeast NM. So in addition to the flash flood threat today, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also possible. An area of rain with embedded storms may persist well into tonight across northern and central NM as the perturbation from the Four Corners evolves into an elongated trough axis within central NM. This trough axis is depicted well by the 325K theta-E ridge axis draped over the region Thursday morning. Another daily PWAT record will likely be broken at KABQ as guidance indicates values between 1.3" and 1.5" for 12Z 6/27. The June monthly record is 1.35" which may be topped as well. Increasing west/southwest flow aloft approaching from the west will shunt the mid level trough axis eastward Thursday afternoon which will enhance lift along and east of the Cont Divide. MLCAPE values remain high over the entire area with bulk shear values between 30 and 40kt. Storm motions will increase however training cells are possible as linear segments align with southwest to northeast steering flow. Stationary cells may latch onto north-south terrain features which will exacerbate the flash flood potential in areas that become saturated from heavy rains today and tonight. A Flash Flood Watch was issued for a larger area Thursday, including the Rio Grande Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Friday begins the long term period with a relative break in the wet weather pattern, thanks to the H5 ridge flattening and drier zonal flow punch through the northern half of NM beneath an upper low passing well north of the region along the 49th Parallel (U.S./Canada border). Dewpoints fall into the 30s and 40s most areas Friday afternoon with breezy westerlies. Saturday sees a return of significantly higher precipitation chances as a weak backdoor frontal boundary pushes into northeastern NM while the leading edge of the next plume of monsoonal moisture begins to push into the desert southwest. Easterly upslope flow through eastern NM will favor convective initiation over central mountain chain. The main 596dm H5 high will be centered well to the east over north- central TX, yielding good convective potential over the west-central mountains of NM along the Continental Divide as well. Storm motions will generally be toward the north through western NM and toward the east off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Subsequent late afternoon and evening convection will likely be along colliding outflow boundaries through central NM and the middle Rio Grande Valley. Locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding will be a main concern, especially for the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. While there are 50%-60% PoPs over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso, there is some hope storm motions toward the north and greater subsidence closer to the high will reduce the flash flood threat there somewhat. Sunday sees the H5 high strengthen to 598dm and nudge a tad westward over the TX Panhandle. This will shunt the aforementioned plume of monsoonal moisture westward along the NM/AZ border. Afternoon convection will thus be favored along and west of the Rio Grande Valley over the high terrain, with storm motions toward the north. The H5 high begins to lose strength early next week falling to 594- 595dm, but the main plume of monsoonal moisture remains west through western NM and eastern AZ. This will continue favor afternoon convection over the western and northern portions of the forecast area. Portions of western NM could end up seeing 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall with locally higher amounts through Wednesday of next week, possibly their most widespread chances for precipitation this year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Main forecast challenge is timing of convection and duration at TAF sites across the Land of Enchantment. Inherited TAF`s largely in great shape so incorporated just a few timing tweaks from latest run of HRRR. TEMPO groups include mention of gusty winds. Brief small hail and IFR conditions cannot be ruled out, but not confident enough to explicitly put in TAF`s. KTCC has relatively highest chance of being impacted by strong/severe storms later this afternoon. Amendments are likely as thunderstorms develop through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. Very rich moisture in place over the region today and Thursday will lead to numerous showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Rain rates may exceed 2"/hr which may generate severe to extreme flash flooding on recent burn scars. The weather setup will be different today and Thursday, with slow-moving storms today followed by faster cells Thursday but with training motions possible. Heavy rainfall from today will provide the antecedent conditions for the more extreme flooding Thursday. A downtick in storm coverage is likely on Friday followed by another surge of moisture into the region Saturday thru Monday. The weekend looks like more of a traditional south-north monsoon burst pattern over central and western NM. More torrential rainfall will be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 91 66 86 63 / 30 50 60 20 Dulce........................... 89 53 82 48 / 40 50 70 20 Cuba............................ 87 59 80 57 / 50 70 80 30 Gallup.......................... 88 57 83 56 / 50 50 70 20 El Morro........................ 84 58 79 58 / 80 70 80 30 Grants.......................... 88 58 83 56 / 80 80 80 20 Quemado......................... 84 60 81 58 / 90 50 70 30 Magdalena....................... 89 65 83 64 / 70 60 80 40 Datil........................... 84 61 80 60 / 90 60 80 30 Reserve......................... 90 58 87 56 / 60 60 70 20 Glenwood........................ 96 70 94 68 / 50 40 50 10 Chama........................... 84 52 76 48 / 60 60 80 30 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 79 61 / 60 60 90 30 Pecos........................... 87 60 81 61 / 70 60 70 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 50 77 47 / 70 60 80 30 Red River....................... 76 50 70 48 / 70 60 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 79 48 75 47 / 70 50 80 20 Taos............................ 89 58 81 53 / 50 60 70 20 Mora............................ 85 55 81 55 / 80 50 70 20 Espanola........................ 95 64 86 61 / 50 60 70 20 Santa Fe........................ 88 63 81 61 / 60 60 70 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 64 84 61 / 50 60 70 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 69 87 68 / 50 60 70 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 69 89 67 / 40 60 60 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 69 91 67 / 40 50 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 70 88 68 / 40 50 60 20 Belen........................... 98 68 91 66 / 40 60 60 30 Bernalillo...................... 96 69 89 68 / 40 50 60 20 Bosque Farms.................... 98 66 91 64 / 40 60 60 30 Corrales........................ 96 69 90 68 / 40 50 60 20 Los Lunas....................... 98 68 91 66 / 40 60 60 30 Placitas........................ 91 67 86 66 / 40 60 70 30 Rio Rancho...................... 95 69 88 68 / 40 50 60 20 Socorro......................... 100 71 93 70 / 50 60 60 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 63 81 63 / 50 60 70 30 Tijeras......................... 90 65 84 63 / 50 60 70 30 Edgewood........................ 91 62 85 61 / 60 60 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 60 86 59 / 60 60 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 86 60 81 60 / 70 60 60 30 Mountainair..................... 90 62 84 61 / 60 70 70 40 Gran Quivira.................... 90 62 84 62 / 70 70 70 40 Carrizozo....................... 94 68 89 68 / 60 70 70 50 Ruidoso......................... 85 62 80 63 / 80 60 80 40 Capulin......................... 87 60 83 59 / 60 50 60 10 Raton........................... 90 60 87 58 / 70 30 60 10 Springer........................ 93 63 88 61 / 70 30 60 10 Las Vegas....................... 86 60 82 60 / 70 60 70 20 Clayton......................... 95 68 89 68 / 40 50 30 10 Roy............................. 92 64 86 64 / 60 60 50 10 Conchas......................... 99 69 93 70 / 30 70 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 95 68 88 68 / 40 60 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 99 69 94 72 / 20 60 10 10 Clovis.......................... 99 71 95 72 / 30 50 20 10 Portales........................ 100 71 96 73 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 99 71 92 71 / 40 60 20 20 Roswell......................... 102 75 100 76 / 30 50 20 20 Picacho......................... 95 68 91 67 / 60 50 70 30 Elk............................. 93 64 90 64 / 80 60 70 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ202-204>207-211-214-215- 217-222-223-226-229-233-239. Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ201-202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...53