Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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335 FXUS65 KABQ 231122 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Deep and rich atmospheric moisture remains in place over New Mexico, and this will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development today with even more numerous storms expected over the southwestern mountains of the state. Storms will be slow moving, so any storms that develop will be capable of dropping locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will warm up to the 70`s, 80`s and 90`s today. Similar conditions are forecast on Monday, but temperatures will warm up a few degrees more. By Tuesday and Wednesday many places will reach the 90`s and low 100`s with scattered storms still possible, decreasing some on Tuesday, but increasing into late Wednesday. Additional moisture will keep more storms going on Thursday with a typical monsoon pattern persisting Friday and next weekend as temperatures remain warm to hot and scattered storms redevelop each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 An early season monsoon burst of moisture remains over NM today and through the short term period. Last night`s 1.08" PWAT was a drop off from the prior morning`s daily record of 1.32". However, high confidence for numerical model guidance PWATs of 1.10" to 1.30" remains through much of this week. This means any storms developing each afternoon will have plenty of fuel to work with in producing localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The question each day will be where storms initiate and their subsequent storm motions. There are a few lingering light overnight showers across parts of northern and central NM that will continue to dissipate through the morning hours. Alongside broken to overcast cloud cover, this will limit heating early on in the afternoon. Numerical model guidance and HiRes CAMs are picking up on this delaying the initial CI for today`s afternoon thunderstorm activity, but not by much. Storms will favor the high terrain of western and northern NM. While there will be scattered to numerous thunderstorm chances over the western and northern mountains, there still remains an fair chance at isolated to scattered storms developing over the south-central mountains as a result of the upper high continuing to push westward over TX and into southeastern NM. Models are also latching onto a surface convergent boundary setting up WSW to ENE over east-central NM. A few storms are likely to set up along this boundary this afternoon as well. There will be notable 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, but low bulk shear of 15-25kts. A rogue storm or two could pulse into the strong to severe mode and produce a brief burst of hail and strong winds in this area of east-central NM. Storm motions will generally be slow but still pushing northward through western and south-central NM and more west to east from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Given the higher precipitation chances and proximity of slow moving storms initiating over the already wet Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar, the Flood Watch for flash flooding remains over that area for this afternoon. Will forego one for the south-central mountains given their lower chances for afternoon storms today, but just one storm can make all the difference there given the susceptibility of the South Fork burn scar. Monday sees the upper ridge progress further westward over southern NM. Suppression beneath the upper high abates precipitation chances further over the south-central mountains and southeastern NM in general. Slow moving storms will again favor initiation over the western and northern mountains. Storm motions will be slowest over southwestern mountains in the Gila NF and a bit faster west to east off the Sangre de Cristo`s and northern mountains over the adjacent central and northeastern highlands. Flash flooding will again likely be a threat over the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar Monday afternoon as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The upper high strengthens more concentrically over NM on Tuesday with 500 mb heights rising to about 594 decameters. There will still be moisture present with PWATs generally ranging from around 1.0 to 1.2 inches in western zones upwards of 1.6 inches in eastern zones, and since the moisture is a bit earlier than climatology would suggest, the western zones would be running about 200 percent of normal Tuesday afternoon. Extended temperature guidance had been running quite hot with the strengthening high, seemingly a bit overcooked for as much moisture would be in place, but the NAM/MET is now reaching into the Tuesday time frame and is pulling high temperature guidance down a few degrees. This seems reasonable, and have leaned this way for the temperature forecast for Tuesday. Blended guidance (NBM) is still quite generous with likely POPs advertised over the southwestern mountains and generally isolated to scattered coverage elsewhere. This was subdued some, given the suppressing and subsident effects of the high and some likely mid level inversions that may accompany. The high will weaken a bit going into Wednesday, and this may only allow a degree or two of temperature relief while ample moisture remains in place, even expanding over more of the northern zones. This will keep scattered coverage of storms in many zones and even more numerous cells in the Gila and southwestern mountains again. Similar to Tuesday, lots of mid to upper 90`s and even low 100`s will increase the risk for heat-related illness Wednesday afternoon. Into Thursday the high will weaken and sag into Chihuahua, Mexico while an upper low moves over the northwestern states near the Canadian border (ID/MT and BC/Alberta). This will introduce a hint of faint westerlies into NM with some drying possible over northern zones. However, a subtropical plume would still be intact over most remaining zones with better storm coverage expected in the absence of strong subsidence. The weak speed max aloft (60 kt at 300 mb) will also vent any storms with some speed shear with height, potentially leading to stronger and more organized cells. It becomes more difficult to find any blatant signals or triggers for changes going into Friday and the weekend, but the westerlies would relax on Friday as the high remains malformed. The Bermuda high looks to be reestablished into Saturday and Sunday which could offer enough of a southerly component to the flow to keep a tap of subtropical moisture into NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered light showers remained overnight and are starting the day over portions of central NM. Today`s scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain of western and northern NM near or just after the noon hour. More isolated to scattered coverage of storms will be present over the south-central mountains. Storm motions will be slow, but generally toward the north over west-central NM and northeast to east from the central mountain chain. Localized heavy rainfall and MVFR conditions will accompany any storm cell. A secondary area of afternoon thunderstorms will also be possible along a surface convergent boundary draped WSW to ESE near the I-40 corridor in eastern NM, potentially impacting the KTCC terminal. Thunderstorm activity wanes again this evening with broken to overcast skies and lingering light showers persisting well into tonight again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A burst of monsoon moisture remains over the forecast area abating fire weather concerns. However, the threat of flash flooding from thunderstorms remains. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor initiation over the high terrain each day, with slower storm motions generally south of I-40 and more west to east north of I-40. Any storm will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, threatening flash flooding over recent burn scars. Otherwise, the high atmospheric moisture content will favor good to excellent overnight humidity recoveries. The upper ridge will steadily move from TX today over NM by Tuesday and Wednesday before breaking down and flattening to end next work week. Prevailing westerlies begin to return for the end of next week as a result. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 64 89 63 / 20 10 10 0 Dulce........................... 82 48 83 50 / 20 20 20 5 Cuba............................ 79 58 83 58 / 30 20 30 20 Gallup.......................... 80 54 84 55 / 40 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 76 57 81 56 / 40 40 60 30 Grants.......................... 80 55 83 58 / 30 40 60 20 Quemado......................... 77 58 82 57 / 60 40 70 40 Magdalena....................... 80 64 84 64 / 60 40 60 20 Datil........................... 77 60 80 59 / 60 40 80 30 Reserve......................... 84 55 87 56 / 60 40 70 40 Glenwood........................ 90 68 92 67 / 50 40 60 30 Chama........................... 76 49 77 50 / 30 20 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 78 63 81 65 / 30 20 30 20 Pecos........................... 78 60 84 60 / 40 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 50 78 51 / 30 10 40 20 Red River....................... 70 48 72 46 / 30 10 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 74 45 76 41 / 30 10 40 20 Taos............................ 81 55 83 56 / 20 10 30 20 Mora............................ 77 53 82 54 / 40 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 85 61 87 63 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 79 63 83 64 / 30 20 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 62 86 62 / 30 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 68 89 68 / 30 20 30 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 68 91 70 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 68 93 63 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 68 91 69 / 10 20 20 20 Belen........................... 90 65 94 66 / 20 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 87 68 92 67 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 89 65 93 62 / 20 20 30 20 Corrales........................ 87 68 92 66 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 89 66 93 64 / 20 20 30 20 Placitas........................ 83 67 88 66 / 20 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 86 68 91 69 / 10 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 91 69 94 71 / 30 30 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 63 84 64 / 30 20 30 20 Tijeras......................... 82 64 87 65 / 30 20 30 20 Edgewood........................ 82 61 89 62 / 30 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 58 90 59 / 30 20 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 79 59 85 60 / 40 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 81 60 87 63 / 50 30 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 83 61 88 63 / 50 20 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 86 67 91 70 / 40 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 79 60 83 58 / 50 20 30 20 Capulin......................... 82 59 87 58 / 30 20 20 10 Raton........................... 85 57 90 59 / 30 10 30 10 Springer........................ 86 59 92 60 / 30 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 58 85 59 / 40 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 90 67 94 67 / 20 20 10 10 Roy............................. 84 64 90 63 / 30 20 20 10 Conchas......................... 91 68 97 69 / 40 30 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 88 65 93 68 / 40 30 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 92 69 97 71 / 40 30 5 10 Clovis.......................... 95 68 95 70 / 10 10 0 5 Portales........................ 96 68 96 71 / 10 10 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 95 68 96 71 / 20 10 0 10 Roswell......................... 99 71 100 75 / 0 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 88 64 93 67 / 20 10 20 10 Elk............................. 86 60 91 64 / 30 10 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24