136
FXUS65 KABQ 252057
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Abnormally high moisture remains across NM for today causing
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Moisture amounts increase
to an extreme level on Wednesday and Thursday, which coupled with a
passing trough, will lead to fairly widespread and heavy rain
showers and thunderstorms. Flooding and flash flooding is very much
of a concern due to the extreme levels of moisture. Following a
brief respite on Friday another round of heavy rain showers and
thunderstorms may occur this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Convection thus far this afternoon has been isolated, but updrafts
that have developed are producing localized heavy rainfall,
including over the Cerro Pelado burn scar. There`s a stark PWAT
gradient over northern NM, with less than 0.5" along the upper Rio
Grande Valley and as much as 1.5" across the southeast plains. The
drier air should limit storm coverage over the northern mountains
this afternoon and evening so storms will focus over the eastern
plains. With the lack of shear close to the center of the high,
storms will go up and come down quickly. Severe outflow gusts are
possible across the eastern plains where greater than 1000 J/Kg of
DCAPE will help bring strong gusts down to the surface. Scattered
development along colliding outflow boundaries will likely occur
through the night.

High pressure sliding to the south tomorrow will bring an influx of
moisture in from the west, surging afternoon PWATs to near record
levels. The deepest moisture doesn`t arrive from the west until the
mid/late-afternoon so this should inhibit convective activity enough
to allow maximal atmospheric destabilization. Storms will slowly
drift off the high terrain and expand in coverage during the evening
as moisture rises to 3 to 5 standard deviations above average. For
this reason, a Flash Flood Watch was issued for most of the central
mountain chain and portions of western and northern NM. These areas
have the highest confidence for flash flooding (especially the
recent burn scars), but flash flooding is still possible elsewhere
with this very moist and unstable airmass. Rounds of storms with
heavy rainfall will increase the risk of large debris flows below
recent burn scars that will be able to damage roads, bridges, and
vulnerable structures. A weakness in the ridge will provide the
forcing to help clusters of storms develop during the evening,
particularly in the highlands adjacent to the central mountain chain
thanks to moist flow from the southeast. Therefore, the flooding
risk will persist well into the overnight hours.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the mid
week through the weekend and into next week. Thursday will see the
high pressure briefly flattened by a trough to the NW of the region.
Thursday will still have an extreme level of moisture sitting across
the whole state. This will see this moisture peak during the
morning hours with PWAT of 1 to 1.5 in which will put in the top 1%
or even max of moisture events for this time of year. This extreme
moisture will fuel fairly widespread rain showers and thunderstorms
that will be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall. Even
with the influence of the trough making storms more progressive in
eastward motion the added ventilation should allow for stronger storm
cores that will produce higher rainfall rates. So even with the
progressive storms the potential for very high rain rates in the
extremely moist environment will allow for flash flooding. The area
most that has the highest chances of seeing these very west storms
on Thursday is the western to central portions of NM with decreasing
chances to the east. The trend for the storms on Thursday has been
an increase in coverage with increasing storm motions. Thursday
still has heightened concern for flooding and flash flooding with a
Flood Watch still looking inevitable at this time. The silver lining
of the moisture will be that all the clouds, rain showers, and
thunderstorms will help to keep NM on the cooler side with the
valleys in the 80s to 90s.

Friday should see a break in the active weather as the flattened
high pressure will allow westerly winds to push the moisture out of
NM. A little remnant moisture will remain which will allow for a few
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to still form over the
mountains. However these should only produce limited rainfall
amounts. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter
side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. The highs
in the hottest spot could even reach heat advisory levels for Friday
afternoon and evening.

Then for the weekend the high has a moderately high chance of pushing
back to the west setting up a very similar pattern to Wednesday and
Thursday. This pattern is already showing signs of pushing in
another round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This batch of
abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the top 10% of
moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.3
inch range. This moisture seems to be from the Gulf of Mexico
streaming into NM from the SE. The moisture will allow for another
round of rain showers and thunderstorms that could be capable of
producing copious amounts of rainfall. To further complicate the
scenario there is a moderate chance that a cold front will push NE
to SW across NM late on Saturday. This front should then stall in
the central portions of NM around the Albuquerque area. Prior to
it stalling this front may act as a forcing mechanism that can
organize and intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it
stalls it would still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns
it increasing rain intensity and amounts around and along the
front. Flooding remains a high concern for this weekend as the
moisture and dynamics will allow it to occur.

Monday and Tuesday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally
high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and
thunderstorms. Flooding remains a concern as the moisture across NM
is still abnormally high. Monday may see a weak jet form over the
central portions of NM that could further aid in the formation and
strength of rain showers and thunderstorms. If the jet forms then
the concern for flooding will be increased for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will favor the
northern mtns and eastern plains from 20Z through around 03Z. A
cluster of storms across the southeast may continue through as
late as 09Z tonight. Winds will generally be light, but gusty
outflow winds are expected near showers and storms that develop.
It will be hot today so density altitude will be a concern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Above normal moisture persists over NM today and will be increasing
to extreme levels on Wednesday and Thursday. For today this is
causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms. The overall
storm motion is a weak easterly to southeasterly drift allowing for
the storms to produce small rain foot prints. However the slow
motions will is causing flood concerns as a high amount of rainfall
can fall over a single area. With increasing moisture for Wednesday
and Thursday the amount and intensity of the rain showers and
thunderstorms will increase across all of NM. The storm motion looks
to be slow with a eastward drift on Wednesday. Thursday should see a
more progressive eastward motion of the storms. Regardless of storm
motion, these storms will bring increased threat of flash flooding
to all the fire areas and burn scars on Wednesday and Thursday. If
flash flooding does occur on a fire area it is possible that
dangerous debris flows may occur. A small break in the active
weather is still in store for Friday as the moisture moves away.
This break comes to an end for the weekend into next week as another
round of abnormally high moisture moves back across NM. This can
lead to another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that may be
capable of producing very high rainfall. The silver lining to all
this moisture is that the RH will see great overnight recoveries and
remain elevated during the days with the possible exception of
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  94  66  89 /   0  50  60  50
Dulce...........................  54  89  55  84 /   0  50  40  60
Cuba............................  60  90  59  83 /   0  70  70  70
Gallup..........................  59  90  58  87 /  20  60  50  40
El Morro........................  59  84  58  82 /  20  80  70  60
Grants..........................  59  88  57  86 /  10  80  70  70
Quemado.........................  60  86  60  83 /  40  90  70  70
Magdalena.......................  67  89  65  84 /  10  80  80  80
Datil...........................  61  85  60  82 /  20  90  70  80
Reserve.........................  59  90  57  89 /  40  80  70  50
Glenwood........................  70  95  68  95 /  30  70  60  40
Chama...........................  53  84  52  77 /  10  60  60  80
Los Alamos......................  68  86  64  81 /   5  80  70  80
Pecos...........................  61  89  59  83 /  10  70  80  70
Cerro/Questa....................  52  85  52  78 /  10  80  60  70
Red River.......................  51  75  50  71 /  10  80  60  70
Angel Fire......................  46  80  48  76 /  20  70  50  60
Taos............................  57  91  58  83 /   0  60  50  60
Mora............................  55  82  55  82 /   5  70  60  70
Espanola........................  64  95  64  89 /   5  60  60  60
Santa Fe........................  67  88  63  84 /  10  70  80  70
Santa Fe Airport................  65  93  64  87 /   5  60  70  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  94  69  90 /   0  70  80  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  96  69  91 /   0  50  70  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  70  98  69  93 /   0  50  70  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71  98  69  91 /   0  50  70  60
Belen...........................  68  98  67  93 /   5  60  80  60
Bernalillo......................  70  97  69  92 /   0  50  70  60
Bosque Farms....................  66  98  65  92 /   0  50  70  60
Corrales........................  69  97  68  92 /   0  50  70  60
Los Lunas.......................  66  99  65  92 /   0  50  70  60
Placitas........................  70  94  68  88 /   0  50  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  71  96  69  91 /   0  50  70  60
Socorro.........................  73 101  71  95 /  10  70  80  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  66  89  62  83 /   0  60  70  60
Tijeras.........................  68  91  65  85 /   0  60  80  70
Edgewood........................  65  91  63  86 /   5  60  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  93  60  88 /  10  60  70  60
Clines Corners..................  61  88  59  82 /  10  60  70  50
Mountainair.....................  64  91  63  86 /  20  70  80  60
Gran Quivira....................  63  91  61  86 /  20  80  80  70
Carrizozo.......................  72  93  68  90 /  20  70  70  50
Ruidoso.........................  64  86  61  83 /  20  60  60  60
Capulin.........................  61  87  61  84 /  10  70  40  50
Raton...........................  60  91  60  88 /   0  70  30  50
Springer........................  61  93  63  89 /   5  70  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  60  85  59  83 /  10  70  70  60
Clayton.........................  67  95  66  92 /  10  50  40  20
Roy.............................  65  91  65  87 /  10  60  60  40
Conchas.........................  70  99  70  95 /  20  40  60  30
Santa Rosa......................  68  95  67  91 /  20  40  60  30
Tucumcari.......................  69 100  68  96 /  30  20  60   5
Clovis..........................  70  99  70  96 /  30  20  40   5
Portales........................  72  99  71  97 /  30  10  40   5
Fort Sumner.....................  72 100  71  95 /  30  30  60  20
Roswell.........................  76 104  74 101 /  30  30  30  20
Picacho.........................  69  94  67  92 /  20  60  50  50
Elk.............................  66  90  63  91 /  20  70  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for NMZ204-207-211-214-215-217-222-223-226-229-233-239.

Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...16