782
FXUS65 KABQ 031720 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Scattered showers and storms will favor southern and eastern areas
each afternoon and evening today through Friday. A few storms in the
eastern plains may become severe today as well. While the likelihood
of heavy rainfall will be lower than previous days, flash flooding
cannot be ruled out over recent burn scars. Temperatures will rise
this weekend, creating moderate heat risk concerns west of the
central mountain chain. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible in the northwest on Sunday where fuels are receptive.
Scattered showers and storms along with near to below average temps
are expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Broad, longwave trough will cruise across the Intermountain West
today as a dome of high pressure pushes inland from the Pacific. The
synoptic pattern will work to steer the monsoonal plume of moisture
across the southeastern portion of the state, while dry
northwesterly flow pushes into the western half of the state. This
will allow for convective potential to favor areas across the
central mts and eastward this afternoon and evening. A passing
shortwave across northeastern NM will allow for enhanced lift to
combine with 0-6km shear values in excess of 40 kts and CAPE values
in excess of 2000 J/kg, creating the potential for severe storms.
The best combination of these conditions looks to exist across
eastern Colfax, Union, Harding, Quay, and portions of San Miguel Co,
where damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible.
Meanwhile, a continued moist airmass will hang over the CWA`s
southernmost counties. Despite this, conditions don`t look
particularly favorable for heavy rainfall, given debris clouds will
linger most of the day, dampening instability needed for intense
rain rates. As such, did decide to not hoist a Flash Flood Watch for
the Sacramento Complex of burn scars.

Extent of the dry air intrusion will push further eastward into NM
on Thursday, almost completely squashing convective potential.
Still, the monsoonal moisture will persist, allowing for a storm to
two across far southern and far eastern locales in the afternoon.
The looming dome of high pressure will cause pressure heights to
rise and subsidence will force cloud cover to clear. This will send
max temps up a few to several degrees nearly areawide. As the broad
trough traverses the Great Plains, a backdoor front will descend
into the eastern plains, the true fate of which will be discussed in
the Long Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A backdoor cold front will surge westward Thursday night, eventually
pushing through the gaps of the central mtn chain around Midnight.
Convection in the east should be minimal so the chances of an early
arrival in the Rio Grande Valley appears unlikely, but it`ll still
be something to watch since there will be plenty of fireworks going
off around town.

The replenished moisture across eastern NM will provide the fuel for
afternoon showers and storms Friday. EC ensemble mean PWATs are only
slightly above average so widespread precipitation appears unlikely
in the absence of synoptic-scale forcing. Meanwhile, western NM will
be under the influence of dry northwest flow associated with a ridge
over the West Coast of the US. Long-term guidance is in excellent
agreement on the location of this ridge and it`s gradual progression
eastward over the weekend. A shortwave embedded within the northwest
flow will make it particularly windy and hot on Sunday afternoon in
the Four Corners Region, with breezy northwest winds potentially
making it as far south as I-40. Meanwhile, the parent trough
associated with this shortwave will send a backdoor front into
eastern NM Sunday night and this one looks like it will be stronger
than the one Thursday night. MOS guidance for the GFS and EC are
already showing 35kts on Sunday night so it`s looking like a Wind
Advisory and potentially High Wind Warning may be needed for that
time period.

Moisture behind this backdoor surge will continue to create
scattered showers and storms around the region early to mid-next
week. Despite the relatively high confidence in the overall synoptic-
scale pattern, there are large model differences in how much
moisture will be around. For example, PWATs in the Albuquerque area
could range from as low as 0.5" to as high as 1.2" on Tuesday. That
being said, it looks like there is an overall trend from slightly
below average moisture early in the week to above average moisture
by late week, resulting in a gradual uptick in precipitation chances
and associated flash flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
brief MVFR conditions in/near iso/sct storms later this afternoon
and evening. Terminal most likely to be impacted is KROW,
followed by KSAF and KAEG, although low probabilities.
Strong/erratic wind gusts are likely with convection today, but
otherwise mostly light winds are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Monsoonal moisture will give rise to thunderstorms today across the
eastern plains, some of which could be severe. Drier conditions will
work their way into New Mexico on Thursday as a dome of high
pressure begins to push inland from the Pacific. A dramatic change
to minimum RH will be seen, especially across the central mountains
and westward, where single digit RH is expected. These critically
low humidity values will persist for greater than 6 hours across
portions of the west central basin and range and northwest plateau,
creating elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. A
backdoor front Thursday night into Friday will recharge moisture
across the eastern plains, bringing thunderstorms back into the
forecast while the west remains dry. A slight downtick in
thunderstorms is expected Saturday with the best coverage favoring
the southwest mountains and eastern New Mexico. Stout northwesterly
flow aloft will bring intense drying and gusty winds to the
northwest plateau on Sunday, creating critical fire weather
conditions. While the area has seen wetting rainfall, areas that
have not been party to such conditions may still have receptive
fuels capable of rapid fire spread. Humidity will improve overall on
Monday but western zones will remain dry with min RH in the low
double digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  55  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  47  88  42 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  54  88  51 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  91  51  91  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  85  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  89  51  90  50 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  86  56  89  54 /  10   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  87  61  90  60 /  20   5   0   0
Datil...........................  85  57  88  58 /  10   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  53  93  54 /  20  10  10   5
Glenwood........................  93  66  98  66 /  30  20  10  10
Chama...........................  80  47  82  44 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  84  62  87  60 /  20   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  85  56  88  56 /  20   5   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  81  44  83  42 /  20   5   5  20
Red River.......................  72  45  75  43 /  30   5   5  30
Angel Fire......................  78  39  80  41 /  20   0   5  30
Taos............................  86  48  88  51 /  20   0   0  20
Mora............................  81  51  84  50 /  30   5   5  30
Espanola........................  90  58  94  56 /  20   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  85  60  88  59 /  20   5   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  58  92  59 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  67  94  64 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  66  97  63 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  64  99  62 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  65  97  64 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  94  62  97  59 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  64  97  63 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  94  61  98  58 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  95  63  98  63 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  95  61  98  59 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  91  65  93  63 /  10   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  93  65  96  63 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  95  67  99  66 /  20   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  61  88  58 /  10   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  88  62  91  60 /  10   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  87  59  91  57 /  10   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  54  92  55 /  10   5   0  10
Clines Corners..................  84  57  88  54 /  20   5   0  20
Mountainair.....................  87  59  91  55 /  20   5   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  91  57 /  20  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  67  95  65 /  30  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  81  61  86  58 /  50  20  20  20
Capulin.........................  82  55  79  51 /  50  10   0  40
Raton...........................  86  54  87  54 /  40  10   0  30
Springer........................  89  55  90  57 /  30  10   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  83  55  86  54 /  20   5   0  30
Clayton.........................  86  62  86  58 /  30  20   0  40
Roy.............................  85  59  87  57 /  30  20   0  50
Conchas.........................  93  64  95  63 /  20  10   0  50
Santa Rosa......................  90  64  94  61 /  20  10   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  93  65  95  61 /  10  20   0  50
Clovis..........................  93  69  97  64 /  30  20   5  40
Portales........................  93  70  98  65 /  40  20   5  40
Fort Sumner.....................  92  68  99  65 /  20  10   0  30
Roswell......................... 100  74 102  73 /  30  20   5  30
Picacho.........................  89  67  95  64 /  40  20  10  20
Elk.............................  87  64  91  61 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11