Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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987 FXUS65 KABQ 271144 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A heightened risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars continues today. Storm motions will be quicker, but locally heavy rain will still threaten rain soaked and sensitive areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect for today across a large portion of central and western NM as a result. After a drier day Friday, afternoon thunderstorm activity increases again this weekend and well into next week. This will keep the risk of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding going. Temperatures rise to near or above 100F across the eastern plains Friday before falling back into the 80s and 90s through northeastern and east-central NM Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The potential for severe to extreme burn scar flash flooding will persist today. Areas that have seen recent heavy rains as well as urban drainages will also be susceptible to flash flooding. The moist instability axis is draped from south to north across central NM early this morning between a high centroid over the TX panhandle and another over northern Sonora. Forecast models are still indicating a very active day today as the trough axis over central NM moves eastward while a 50-60kt upper level speed max approaches the Four Corners region. Near-record PWATs along with afternoon heating, sufficient shear, and surface-based instability will lead to another crop of showers and storms forming over the higher terrain around 11am. This activity will move faster than Wednesday however training cells may lead to localized areas of torrential rainfall. BUKFIT heavy rainfall vector analysis shows storms propagating very slowly eastward while linear segments move northeastward. If any of these training cells develop over a burn scar then severe to extreme flash flooding may occur. A few strong cells are also possible across northern NM with hail and damaging winds. The latest SPC convective outlook shows a large `Marginal Risk` area over northern NM while the WPC ERO shows a large `Slight Risk` for excessive rainfall over central and western NM. Showers and storms will persist well into the night across western and central NM as the right entrance region of the aforementioned speed max shifts slowly east across northern NM. The current Flash Flood Watch is in effect until midnight tonight. Relatively drier and more stable air is expected to move into western NM Friday but it will still be very moist for late June. Showers and storms will still form over the high terrain but with less coverage than recent days. The favored areas for locally heavy rainfall will be over the southern high terrain and parts of eastern NM. Max temps may approach Heat Advisory criteria around Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The long term begins with Friday`s drier westerly flow coming to an end Friday night into Saturday morning. The 597dm H5 ridge over TX builds westward again with a backdoor front sliding into northeastern NM. High temperatures fall 5F-10F behind the front for Saturday. Afternoon convection looks to initiate along the east slopes of the central mountain chain thanks to easterly upslope flow leading into this area. Another area of convective initiation will focus over the Continental Divide. Storm motions will generally be toward the north for storms south of I-40, and more northeast to east off the northern mountains. Storms will steadily drift over surrounding lower elevations of the northwestern half of the forecast area, lasting the longest over northeastern NM down toward the I-40 corridor where the highest instability will be located. This pattern puts the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar under the bullseye for heavy rainfall. Sunday sees the H5 high build to 598dm pushing further westward into eastern NM. This pushes a plume of monsoonal moisture advecting northward on the western periphery of the H5 high through western NM and eastern AZ. Storms will favor areas along and east of the I-25 corridor and the northern mountains Sunday afternoon. Storm motions will generally be toward the north. The H5 high over TX begins to nudge back east falling to 596dm allowing for more monsoonal moisture to push into western and central NM Monday. PWATs look to rise to the 1.10" to 1.30" range, allowing for very rain efficient thunderstorms to form again. Monday`s convective activity looks to again favor central, western and northern sections of the forecast area. With the ridge loosening its influence over NM and a troughing pattern passing north of the region, Monday could see a rather active day of thunderstorms. Localized flash flooding will continue to be a threat, especially over recent burn scars. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain and drifting over surrounding lower elevations continue Tuesday and Wednesday during a transition period as the extreme western portion of the Bermuda High continues to migrate back east. Both the GFS and ECMWF are resolving the development of a more traditional monsoon high over the western CONUS bringing drier northwesterly flow into northern NM toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 SHRA/TS has persisted all night with activity still redeveloping along the Cont Divide and over parts of eastern NM at sunrise. Forecast models still show coverage decreasing between sunrise and 11am, except for locations around the northern high terrain. Convective initiation will likely occur again over the remainder of the high terrain by early to mid afternoon. Storms will move toward the east around 10 to 15kt with direct hits capable of producing brief IFR with heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds. SHRA/TS is likely to persist well into the night once again in many areas along and south of I-40. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. A deep tap of moisture over NM today will generate another crop of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Rates may exceed 2 inches per hour in some areas. Burn scar flash flooding may become severe with debris flows possible. Friday will be relatively drier with hotter temperatures and less coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall. A backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM Friday night and bring another uptick in storm coverage Saturday. This activity will be heavy once again with flash flooding possible. Daily rounds of showers and storms will continue thru next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 92 62 91 63 / 50 40 10 0 Dulce........................... 84 49 87 48 / 50 30 10 0 Cuba............................ 85 56 85 58 / 60 40 10 0 Gallup.......................... 87 55 89 56 / 60 40 10 0 El Morro........................ 81 57 83 58 / 70 50 10 0 Grants.......................... 84 56 88 56 / 80 50 10 0 Quemado......................... 84 59 85 59 / 80 50 20 10 Magdalena....................... 85 64 88 67 / 80 60 20 10 Datil........................... 82 59 84 63 / 90 50 30 5 Reserve......................... 88 56 91 57 / 80 40 20 10 Glenwood........................ 93 68 96 70 / 70 30 20 10 Chama........................... 78 48 81 50 / 80 40 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 62 86 65 / 80 50 20 0 Pecos........................... 85 59 86 62 / 70 60 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 47 83 49 / 60 50 10 5 Red River....................... 70 48 75 48 / 60 50 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 76 45 79 44 / 60 50 10 0 Taos............................ 82 54 87 54 / 50 60 5 0 Mora............................ 79 54 85 54 / 70 30 10 0 Espanola........................ 87 61 92 61 / 70 50 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 83 61 86 64 / 60 60 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 61 91 62 / 50 60 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 67 91 71 / 60 60 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 67 93 69 / 50 60 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 66 95 69 / 50 50 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 67 94 70 / 50 50 5 0 Belen........................... 93 65 96 66 / 50 50 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 91 67 95 69 / 50 50 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 92 63 95 66 / 50 60 5 0 Corrales........................ 91 66 95 69 / 50 50 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 64 95 67 / 50 50 5 0 Placitas........................ 88 65 91 69 / 50 60 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 90 67 93 69 / 50 50 5 0 Socorro......................... 95 69 98 73 / 60 50 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 62 86 66 / 60 60 10 0 Tijeras......................... 88 63 91 66 / 60 60 10 0 Edgewood........................ 86 61 90 62 / 70 50 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 58 91 58 / 70 60 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 82 58 85 61 / 70 40 10 0 Mountainair..................... 88 60 89 62 / 70 50 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 88 60 90 63 / 80 50 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 91 67 94 71 / 60 60 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 84 62 86 64 / 80 40 50 10 Capulin......................... 85 59 88 57 / 50 30 10 10 Raton........................... 89 57 92 58 / 50 30 10 0 Springer........................ 91 59 94 60 / 60 30 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 59 86 58 / 60 30 10 0 Clayton......................... 91 66 96 65 / 30 20 10 10 Roy............................. 88 63 93 63 / 60 20 10 0 Conchas......................... 96 69 100 69 / 50 30 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 67 95 66 / 50 50 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 70 100 69 / 30 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 71 99 71 / 20 20 5 10 Portales........................ 97 72 100 71 / 10 20 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 96 71 100 70 / 30 30 5 5 Roswell......................... 101 75 104 76 / 20 30 10 10 Picacho......................... 93 67 95 68 / 70 30 40 10 Elk............................. 89 64 92 64 / 70 40 50 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ201- 202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239. Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ211-214-215- 226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42