Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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589 FXUS65 KABQ 030824 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 224 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Scattered showers and storms will favor southern and eastern areas each afternoon and evening today through Friday. A few storms in the eastern plains may become severe today as well. While the likelihood of heavy rainfall will be lower than previous days, flash flooding cannot be ruled out over recent burn scars. Temperatures will rise this weekend, creating moderate heat risk concerns west of the central mountain chain. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in the northwest on Sunday where fuels are receptive. Scattered showers and storms along with near to below average temps are expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Broad, longwave trough will cruise across the Intermountain West today as a dome of high pressure pushes inland from the Pacific. The synoptic pattern will work to steer the monsoonal plume of moisture across the southeastern portion of the state, while dry northwesterly flow pushes into the western half of the state. This will allow for convective potential to favor areas across the central mts and eastward this afternoon and evening. A passing shortwave across northeastern NM will allow for enhanced lift to combine with 0-6km shear values in excess of 40 kts and CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg, creating the potential for severe storms. The best combination of these conditions looks to exist across eastern Colfax, Union, Harding, Quay, and portions of San Miguel Co, where damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. Meanwhile, a continued moist airmass will hang over the CWA`s southernmost counties. Despite this, conditions don`t look particularly favorable for heavy rainfall, given debris clouds will linger most of the day, dampening instability needed for intense rain rates. As such, did decide to not hoist a Flash Flood Watch for the Sacramento Complex of burn scars. Extent of the dry air intrusion will push further eastward into NM on Thursday, almost completely squashing convective potential. Still, the monsoonal moisture will persist, allowing for a storm to two across far southern and far eastern locales in the afternoon. The looming dome of high pressure will cause pressure heights to rise and subsidence will force cloud cover to clear. This will send max temps up a few to several degrees nearly areawide. As the broad trough traverses the Great Plains, a backdoor front will descend into the eastern plains, the true fate of which will be discussed in the Long Term Forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A backdoor cold front will surge westward Thursday night, eventually pushing through the gaps of the central mtn chain around Midnight. Convection in the east should be minimal so the chances of an early arrival in the Rio Grande Valley appears unlikely, but it`ll still be something to watch since there will be plenty of fireworks going off around town. The replenished moisture across eastern NM will provide the fuel for afternoon showers and storms Friday. EC ensemble mean PWATs are only slightly above average so widespread precipitation appears unlikely in the absence of synoptic-scale forcing. Meanwhile, western NM will be under the influence of dry northwest flow associated with a ridge over the West Coast of the US. Long-term guidance is in excellent agreement on the location of this ridge and it`s gradual progression eastward over the weekend. A shortwave embedded within the northwest flow will make it particularly windy and hot on Sunday afternoon in the Four Corners Region, with breezy northwest winds potentially making it as far south as I-40. Meanwhile, the parent trough associated with this shortwave will send a backdoor front into eastern NM Sunday night and this one looks like it will be stronger than the one Thursday night. MOS guidance for the GFS and EC are already showing 35kts on Sunday night so it`s looking like a Wind Advisory and potentially High Wind Warning may be needed for that time period. Moisture behind this backdoor surge will continue to create scattered showers and storms around the region early to mid-next week. Despite the relatively high confidence in the overall synoptic- scale pattern, there are large model differences in how much moisture will be around. For example, PWATs in the Albuquerque area could range from as low as 0.5" to as high as 1.2" on Tuesday. That being said, it looks like there is an overall trend from slightly below average moisture early in the week to above average moisture by late week, resulting in a gradual uptick in precipitation chances and associated flash flood risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Lingering shwrs and a few outflow boundaries still evident on radar across ern NM, which expected to continue tapering off overnight. Drier air will limit tstm potential west of the centrl mts tomorrow, with the highest potential for shwrs and tstms favoring the ern and srn portions of the fcst area. Gusty wly and nwly winds will prevail in the aftn most terminals. Any lingering shwr activity present in the evening will taper off quickly before 03/06Z as drier air continues to intrude into the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Monsoonal moisture will give rise to thunderstorms today across the eastern plains, some of which could be severe. Drier conditions will work their way into New Mexico on Thursday as a dome of high pressure begins to push inland from the Pacific. A dramatic change to minimum RH will be seen, especially across the central mountains and westward, where single digit RH is expected. These critically low humidity values will persist for greater than 6 hours across portions of the west central basin and range and northwest plateau, creating elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. A backdoor front Thursday night into Friday will recharge moisture across the eastern plains, bringing thunderstorms back into the forecast while the west remains dry. A slight downtick in thunderstorms is expected Saturday with the best coverage favoring the southwest mountains and eastern New Mexico. Stout northwesterly flow aloft will bring intense drying and gusty winds to the northwest plateau on Sunday, creating critical fire weather conditions. While the area has seen wetting rainfall, areas that have not been party to such conditions may still have receptive fuels capable of rapid fire spread. Humidity will improve overall on Monday but western zones will remain dry with min RH in the low double digits. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 47 88 42 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 54 88 51 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 51 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 85 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 89 51 90 50 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 86 56 89 54 / 10 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 87 61 90 60 / 20 5 0 0 Datil........................... 85 57 88 58 / 10 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 53 93 54 / 20 10 10 5 Glenwood........................ 93 66 98 66 / 30 20 10 10 Chama........................... 80 47 82 44 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 87 60 / 20 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 85 56 88 56 / 20 5 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 44 83 42 / 20 5 5 20 Red River....................... 72 45 75 43 / 30 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 78 39 80 41 / 20 0 5 30 Taos............................ 86 48 88 51 / 20 0 0 20 Mora............................ 81 51 84 50 / 30 5 5 30 Espanola........................ 90 58 94 56 / 20 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 85 60 88 59 / 20 5 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 58 92 59 / 10 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 67 94 64 / 10 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 66 97 63 / 10 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 64 99 62 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 65 97 64 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 94 62 97 59 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 64 97 63 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 61 98 58 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 63 98 63 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 95 61 98 59 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 91 65 93 63 / 10 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 93 65 96 63 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 95 67 99 66 / 20 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 61 88 58 / 10 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 88 62 91 60 / 10 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 87 59 91 57 / 10 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 54 92 55 / 10 5 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 84 57 88 54 / 20 5 0 20 Mountainair..................... 87 59 91 55 / 20 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 87 59 91 57 / 20 10 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 88 67 95 65 / 30 10 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 81 61 86 58 / 50 20 20 20 Capulin......................... 82 55 79 51 / 50 10 0 40 Raton........................... 86 54 87 54 / 40 10 0 30 Springer........................ 89 55 90 57 / 30 10 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 83 55 86 54 / 20 5 0 30 Clayton......................... 86 62 86 58 / 30 20 0 40 Roy............................. 85 59 87 57 / 30 20 0 50 Conchas......................... 93 64 95 63 / 20 10 0 50 Santa Rosa...................... 90 64 94 61 / 20 10 0 40 Tucumcari....................... 93 65 95 61 / 10 20 0 50 Clovis.......................... 93 69 97 64 / 30 20 5 40 Portales........................ 93 70 98 65 / 40 20 5 40 Fort Sumner..................... 92 68 99 65 / 20 10 0 30 Roswell......................... 100 74 102 73 / 30 20 5 30 Picacho......................... 89 67 95 64 / 40 20 10 20 Elk............................. 87 64 91 61 / 60 30 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...12