Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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182 FXUS63 KABR 071931 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms, with the focus area in north central South Dakota, from late afternoon into evening. An isolated threat for hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60mph. - 15-20% chance of light rain Sunday with chances increasing Monday night into Tuesday (20-50%). - Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Light rain with embedded weak convection continues to drift across the south central portion of the CWA early this afternoon. CAMS show this continues to move east/dissipate, with additional potential for development along and south of the White River. Cant rule out that a storm will develop within the CWA before moving out, but CAMS are generally closer to the state line in their depiction of convective initiation. The other focus area is up north, where a northwest flow shortwave is zipping through North Dakota. The associated cold front is along I94, with just some weak Altocumulus in northwest South Dakota at this time. Timing for convective initiation up that way is around 00Z, with a rapid progression east-southeast thanks to strong mid-level winds. Despite just a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE, strong shear may help to support marginal hail, but the main threat should be more akin to straight line winds given straight hodographs and and that near unidirectional shear profile. Severe weather threat is also contingent on daytime heating so post 00-02Z which CAMS do show storms indicate rapid weakening. Additional elevated/weak convection is possible in association with weak/very subtle mid level warm advection in southwest South Dakota towards morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Starting off the long term, the +PNA pattern continues with Clusters in overall agreement on a very positive mid level trough (along with the 850mb-surface trough) swinging down from Canada and into the Northern Plains. However, the placement of this system at 12Z Sunday is all over the place between the ensembles. Cluster 1 (made up of mostly GEFS) has a mid level low pushing northwest over Canada (which seems to be the outlier). Cluster 4 (made up of majority GEFS) has a quickest onset of the system into the Northern Plains. This system will continue its track southeast through Sunday evening into early Monday morning (model depending). The majority of the Clusters do show the possibility of very light precip with this system, mainly Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. NBM backs this up with a 15-20% chance of light rain. Models indicate weak lift and really nothing more than rain with isolated weak thunderstorms at most. The next wave and low moves in from the west/northwest Monday through Tuesday with the Clusters agreeing on this, but timing and intensity of the wave varies quite a bit between the ensembles. This could bring our next chance of moisture with NBM pops ranging from 20-50%, highest Monday evening through early Tuesday. Mid level ridge moves in overhead midweek with timing and intensity differences among the Clusters as some show more zonal flow. More light precip chances (15-30%) return Wednesday evening-Friday, however confidence remains low at this time. Highs for Sunday and Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees below average with highs only in the upper 60s to the lower to mid 70s. Warmer air moves in over central SD with the incoming ridge with forecasted highs in the upper 70s to around 80 west of the James River on Tuesday. We really see that warmer air on Wednesday with potential highs well into the 80s and possibly lower 90s, which is 10-12 degrees above average. This warmer air looks to stick around through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. Low potential for thunderstorms to affect the KMBG terminal late this afternoon, weakening as they get towards the other terminals (and thus just a VCTS mention tonight). && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Connelly