404
FXAK68 PAFC 131313
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

Today will start out similar to yesterday with cool and damp
conditions over much of Southcentral. This is due to an upper
level wave traversing the region from the northeast to southwest.
This will produce scattered showers mainly through the morning
hours with the showers tapering off later in the day.

Starting tomorrow, there will be a stark change in the pattern
which will increase temperatures over the region by 10 to 15
degrees (as compared to yesterday) for Friday and Saturday.
However, nothing is free and the warmer and less cloudy weather
will also increase the instability across the area resulting in
afternoon and evening showers with a chance of thunderstorms as
well. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the Copper River Basin, as well the Mat-Su valleys and southward
to the kenai Peninsula. Anchorage usually is adept at dodging
thunderstorms, but the flow aloft is weak northeasterly, which is
the best set-up for thunderstorms to develop over the front-range
of the Chugach mountains and then drift into town. People
recreating in any of the mountains on Friday, and especially
Saturday, should remain aware of the potential for thunderstorm
activity. This warmer and unstable pattern should persist into
early next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure continues to build over Southwest Alaska, leading to
much drier conditions and gradually warming temperatures. Upper-
level support may provide enough energy to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to generate in the foothills of the Western Alaska
Range and may move southwest into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
Bristol Bay by Saturday. A low near the Western Aleutians pushes
westward, along the southern edge of the Aleutian Chain over the
next few days, stalling in the North Pacific south of Adak. This
will bring rounds of rain showers and small craft winds to the
Western/Central Aleutians through the end of the week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

The upper level Mainland Alaska high gets squeezed into the
Bering for Monday, and continues into the Russian Arctic by
Wednesday. An Arctic low pushes across the northern half of the
Interior through midweek while an elongated low stretches across
the Aleutians and Bering into the Gulf of Alaska, then continues
into the Canadian Provinces. Model confidence falls off somewhat
through the period with variations of speed and strength of the
surface elements, but overall maintains good consistency for the
forecast period. Most energetic weather is expected along the
Aleutians and Southern Bering.

Heaviest showers and locally gusty winds begin in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians and the Bering up to the Pribilofs on Sunday.
Winds taper off Monday. Showers will occur across the Southcentral
Interior for Monday. The Aleutians front continues its Eastward
push over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island before spreading
more rain over Southcentral, Prince William Sound and the Copper
River Valley through midweek. Showers linger behind the front over
the Aleutians and Bering. Temperatures range from the 40s across
the Aleutians to 70s and possible low 80s over the Eastern
Interior through the period.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...There will be some showers in the vicinity through the
morning hours, but these showers are expected to remain light with
VFR visibility. Ceilings may drop to the 3500 -4500 ft level near
these showers this morning and the increase this afternoon. Winds
are expected to remain from southerly to southwesterly direction
at 10 kt or less.

&&
$$