298
FXAK68 PAFC 130052
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stacked low south of Kodiak Island will slowly move east over
the next few days as high pressure builds in over interior Alaska.
Easterly flow with embedded shortwaves has brought precipitation
across the area moving from east to west over the Copper River
Basin through the Mat-Su Valley. A few pop-up showers will remain
possible for the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage areas through early
tonight.

Residual moisture and another shortwave descending from interior
Alaska will continue scattered rain showers across the Copper
River Basin on Thursday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible
across the northern portions of the Basin in the late
afternoon/evening, however, instability is very marginal with
ample cloud cover.

Friday will mark the beginning of a warmer and overall drier
period, albeit with thunderstorm potential, as a ridge builds in
over Southwestern Alaska. Strong northerly offshore flow aloft on
the eastern periphery of this ridge will generally bring dry
conditions with warming temperatures. As temperatures also warm
aloft and a few upper level shortwaves move through, atmospheric
instability will build with each passing day. The potential for
widely scattered thunderstorms exists for the entire Copper River
Basin and possibly in the Susitna Valley on Friday as high
temperature rise in the mid 60s near the immediate coast to mid
70s inland. With even more available instability and potentially
an even more potent upper wave, thunderstorms will also be
possible in the Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula areas in
addition to the Copper River Basin and Mat-Su Valley on Saturday.
High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the 70s for most,
nearing 80 for inland areas. Thunderstorm chances are likely to
continue through the rest of the weekend into the beginning of
next week.

-ME

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light rain showers will taper off this afternoon across the
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas. A benign pattern sets up
over Southwest for the rest of the week as high pressure ridging
moves in. By Friday, drier air will return to Southwest Alaska,
filtered south through the Western Alaska Range. By Saturday,
upper-level support may provide enough energy to allow for some
isolated thunderstorms to generate in the foothills of the Western
Alaska Range and may move southwest into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay. A low moving in west of the Western
Aleutians will push westward, along the southern edge of the
Aleutian Chain through late this week, eventually stalling in the
North Pacific south of Adak. This will bring rounds of rain
showers and small craft winds to the Western/Central Aleutians
through the end of the week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

The upper level Mainland Alaska high gets squeezed into the
Bering for Monday, and continues into the Russian Arctic by
Wednesday. An Arctic low pushes across the northern half of the
Interior through midweek while an elongated low stretches across
the Aleutians and Bering into the Gulf of Alaska, then continues
into the Canadian Provinces. Model confidence falls off somewhat
through the period with variations of speed and strength of the
surface elements, but overall maintains good consistency for the
forecast period. Most energetic weather is expected along the
Aleutians and Southern Bering.

Heaviest showers and locally gusty winds begin in the Central and
Eastern Aleutians and the Bering up to the Pribilofs on Sunday.
Winds taper off Monday. Showers will occur across the Southcentral
Interior for Monday. The Aleutians front continues its Eastward
push over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island before spreading
more rain over Southcentral, Prince William Sound and the Copper
River Valley through midweek. Showers linger behind the front over
the Aleutians and Bering. Temperatures range from the 40s across
the Aleutians to 70s and possible low 80s over the Eastern
Interior through the period.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect generally light southwesterly flow and dry
conditions, with VFR ceilings remaining right around 5000 ft.
Vicinity rain showers this evening and overnight bring the
potential for ceilings to drop below 5000 ft and perhaps even into
MVFR. Otherwise, there is only a small chance (10-20%) of a stray
shower moving over the terminal. Rain chances decrease heading
into Thursday.

- KC

&&


$$