Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
272 FXAK69 PAFG 131338 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 538 AM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The Interior has cool and wet conditions, except the Northern Interior which remains warmer and drier, and will trend warmer and drier from into the weekend. Today, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high-based with low precip and the potential for some dry lightning. The North Slope is sunny and warmer than normal, and will remain warmer than normal through Fri. The coast sees some fog and stratus clouds move onshore and persist into Fri. The North Slope will cool and cloud up over the weekend. The West Coast is cool and wet with areas of fog, and will remain cool with areas of fog and a chance of rain into Fri. The West Coast warms and dries over the weekend. Surface Pattern... A trough will move into the Eagle to Coldfoot to Point Lay area Today, and to Northway to Coldfoot to Anaktuvuk Pass on Fri, and will remain there into the weekend. The warmest and driest conditions will remain northeast of this trough. Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist into Fri and then weaken over the weekend. A vertically stacked low southwest of Gambell will move to the Gulf of Anadyr and weaken by 4pm Thu, then to 100 NM south of Wrangel Island as a weaker low by 4pm Fri, and then to 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as an even weaker low by 4pm Sat. A low pressure trough extending south from this low will move along the West Coast today, and over NW AK on Fri, and then over the Western North Slope on Sat. This low and trough will bring isolated to scattered showers and cooler air north with it. These will also bring southwest wind 25 kt Sat over NW AK. && .DISCUSSION... The long wave pattern consists of a Rex Block with a strong high north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska and a low over the Gulf of Alaska. A strong low over the Northern Bering Sea will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula and another low will move from near Shemya to the Central Aleutians today. The ridge builds south over mainland AK on today forming an omega block with the blocking ridge persisting over mainland AK through the weekend. This will cause a warming and drying trend over the Interior and North Slope through Fri while the West Coast sees cooling from the cold low aloft moving into the area. The North Slope will cool and cloud up over the weekend while the West Coast warms and dries over the weekend. A short wave trough has moved to a Chicken to Denali to Point Hope line this morning, and to Northway to McGrath to Point Lay by afternoon. Showers will taper off as the ridge builds south over the trough area. A second short wave trough will move south to the Arctic Village east today, and to the SE Interior tonight. This will help set off isolated PM thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior this afternoon through this evening. A third short wave will drop south over the Eastern Interior Fri PM with a fourth short wave following the track on Sat. These could bring isolated PM thunderstorms, but due to the warming and drying air mass they will likely be dry. With precipitation, models show similar areas through Sat, but the GFS and ECMWF produce greater coverage and amounts for Fri and Sat. Given the building ridge on today and Fri and continuation into the weekend, expect showers to decrease in areal coverage through Fri. Today, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning. At the surface models verify well and show similar solutions through Sat. Winds remain below 25 kt sustained through Fri, with southwest 25 kt possible Sat over NW AK. Over the Interior winds should remain below 15 mph sustained through Sat. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and wet conditions over most of the Interior will become warmer and drier from today into the weekend. Today, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning. && .HYDROLOGY... High water on rivers of the Central North Slope such as the Colville, the Kuparuk and the Sagavanirktok will fall slowly through the weekend, and then fall more next week. Minor flooding is possible along these rivers in low lying areas near the coast the next several days. Showers along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile River Basins started will continue into today morning. Showers may be heavy at times. By the time the rain tapers off on today, this will make a two day rainfall total of between one and two inches with the heaviest amounts east of Denali Park. This rain could cause rapid rises on streams and small rivers in steep terrain. People in the Alaska Range east of Denali Park, and along the Goodpaster, Charlie and Fortymile Rivers should remain alert to the possibility of heavy rain and rapidly rising streams and rivers through today. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815. && $$