234
FXAK69 PAFG 162131
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon is a warm one with widespread 80 degree or higher
temperatures across much of the Interior. Isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon will mostly be in the higher terrain with isolated
showers in the valleys, similar to yesterday. Warm temperatures
continue in the Interior tomorrow with scattered thunderstorms in
the Western AK Range southeast of McGrath with widely scattered
storms from McGrath west. Mild with a few rain showers today on
the North Slope with more numerous showers tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The models initialized fairly well aloft with a ridge over the
Interior stretching west into the Bering Sea and a low over the
Chukchi. There is also a shortwave over Kodiak which was the
culprit for a few thunderstorms as well. This wave of energy moves
into Southwest AK tomorrow as the low in the Chukchi begins to
drop south and split the ridge. Ridging will remain in the Central
and Eastern Interior while the Western Interior and West Coast
will be dominated by troughing and a bit more active weather.

Surface Analysis...
A thermal trough centered over the Central Interior will spark a
few showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain today.
Otherwise there is a high over most of the state keeping it warm
and dry. A front northwest of the Arctic Coast will move southeast
this evening and through the day tomorrow. A trough of low
pressure will drop south tomorrow with cooling temperatures for
the next few days from the Seward Peninsula northward.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm and dry with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for
most spots except the Yukon Flats where it will be in the mid 80s.
Isolated thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain with a few
showers in the valleys. Tomorrow will be warm once again with
similar conditions in the Tanana Valley. The thermal trough will
lift north with a shortwave moving from west to east providing a
bit more numerous showers and storms from Allakaket east beginning
around noon and continuing at times through the evening. On
Tuesday, showers and storms will be the most numerous with
southwest flow dominating as a few shortwaves move through. The
bulk of the Fairbanks area and Tanana Valley will see isolated rain
showers and downpours, while higher terrain in the Interior see
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. If there were to be a
thunderstorm in the Fairbanks bowl, it would occur during the
midday and early afternoon hours though they will be spotty.
Otherwise, warm weather continues through the end of the week as
ridging persists.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warm and dry today across the area with plenty of sunshine.
Tomorrow, a shortwave currently over Kodiak moves north with
scattered thunderstorms from McGrath South. These will come with
wetting rains and potentially as much as 0.5-1.0" of rain in the
most persistent thunderstorms. Isolated showers and storms prevail
elsehwere in the higher terrain. The coast will stay dry and warm.
Temperatures then cool on Tuesday as a low drops south from the
Chukchi Sea. Although it will be cooler, there will likely be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Western Interior
with wetting rains accompanying most storms. Wednesday continues
the cooling trend with highs in the 60s to near 70 inland and 50s
along the coast. We will likely be looking at another day with
isolated showers and storms across the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mild weather continues today with highs in the 40s along the
coast, 60s inland and near 80 on the southern slopes of the Brooks
Range. Expect isolated showers along the NW Arctic Coast today,
then they move east with a front tomorrow making for scattered showers
and even the potential for a thunderstorm as far north as Umiat.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the
Central and Eastern Brooks Range today and tomorrow. On Tuesday,
expect another round of thunderstorms for the entire Brooks Range,
especially the western half as there will be waves of energy
moving north. The North Slope will continue to see areas of rain
showers and mild temps each day through Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Ridging looks to persist in the Central and Eastern Interior with
troughing out west. This troughing will hang around through the
end of the week with chances for rain and cooler temperatures along
the coast, then the trough gradually shifts west to Siberia. The
Interior ridge will be relatively weak, so extreme heat is not
expected, more so seasonably warm temperatures, afternoon
thunderstorms and potentially some heavier rain in the SE Interior
and AK Range as the flow turns southeasterly Thursday into
Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry weather continues today with isolated showers and
storms, mainly over the higher terrain of the Interior.
Temperatures will peak this afternoon in the mid 80s in the Yukon
Flats and lower 80s elsewhere.

Tomorrow, temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler and
min RHs will be wetter with the only area near 25% being the Yukon
Flats. The area of focus will be in Southwest AK where scattered
wet thunderstorms develop south of McGrath towards Farewell and in
the Western AK Range. Elsewhere, expect isolated wet
thunderstorms across the Interior.

Tuesday may be another big day for lightning across the state.
Expect another day of thunderstorms with a broader range of
widely scattered storms from the Nulato Hills to the AlCan Border.
There will be and area of scattered wet thunderstorms in the
Interior/Western Interior from Minchumina to Galena northeast to
Bettles. These will come with the potential for heavy rain,
especially in the Western Interior and Brooks Range. Across the
Eastern Interior, most of the area will have widely scattered
thunderstorms, and we have kept isolated storms in the AK Range
and Tanana Valley from Fairbanks southeast for now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm
temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that
water levels will either fall slowly or remain steady as
increased warming over the Brooks Range may allow for additional
snowmelt. The Colville is running near bankfull at Umiat and will
likely remain so for a while.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
&&

$$