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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
257 FXAK69 PAFG 271520 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 720 AM AKDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today looks to be one of the most impactful weather days of the summer. Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Interior and North Slope with even some windy areas in the northern Interior. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning will reduce visibility along the Elliott, Steese, and Richardson Highways. Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Western Brooks Range to Fairbanks to the Alcan Border, with strong thunderstorms continuing overnight on the North Slope. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected from Central north to Fort Yukon. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph will persist on the west coast south of Nome bringing elevated water 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line south of the Bering Strait through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Analysis and Model Discussion... A strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains over the eastern half of Alaska. The high center has shifted north to be over the eastern North Slope. This brought very warm temperatures across all of northern Alaska on Wednesday with areas on the North Slope and Arctic Coast even reaching into the 70s and 80s. The Interior was mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with low 80s in areas with smokey skies. The ridge will weaken just slightly on Thursday with temperatures remaining warm to downright hot. A strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering Sea. A number of shortwaves will move through the convergence zone between the low and the ridge on Thursday afternoon bringing scattered thunderstorms from the western North Slope southeast to Tanana. Another shortwave will rotate around the high center to provide the forcing for scattered thunderstorms over the central and eastern Interior south of the White Mountains. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected from Central north to Fort Yukon. Fortunately, LCLs look to be substantially lower with more influence from the Gulf of Alaska tomorrow over the Upper Tanana Valley and storms there and across the rest of the area should be wet. Perhaps the most intriguing development in the forecast is the likelihood of very strong thunderstorms on the North Slope Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Models continue to indicate areas of CAPE >1000 J/kg with Lifted Indices as low as -4. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for this. This is all associated with both shortwaves moving through the convergence zone and the shortwave moving around the high to the east. Storms will likely continue all night Thursday night into Friday and may reach the coast. These storms may produce hail up to half an inch in diameter and outflow winds as high as 40 mph. On Friday, the focus of convection in the Interior shifts to the Yukon Flats as a shortwave aloft from the south moves over that area off the high center. Temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Thursday except in the Yukon Flats, though temperatures look to warm back up on Saturday. Convection on Saturday looks to just be isolated over the eastern Interior but widely scattered right along the Alcan Border and in the SE Brooks Range. Models initialized very well with respect to observations aloft and at the surface, however the HRRR smoke model continuies to struggle, still showing very dense smoke over the Fairbanks area despite much of it being cleared out by outflow boundaries Wednesday evening. Forecast models show above average agreement aloft through Sunday morning and few differences at the surface and in precipitation fields. We will use a blend of models for this forecast package with the changes noted above. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warnings are in effect for hot, dry, and windy conditions today across the northern Interior, and for lightning across the Central and Eastern Interior. Sustained winds will be around 10-15 mph in the Northern Interior but thunderstorms can cause erratic wind gusts. A ridge of high pressure in the Interior and a trough of low pressure in the Bering Sea will create a boundary from the NW Arctic to the SE Interior where strong, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Most of these thunderstorms will be wet, however widely scattered to isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible from Central to Fort Yukon. Expect today to be one of the biggest thunderstorm days of the summer across northern Alaska, with strong storms even possible on the North Slope. On Friday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for lightning for the Yukon Flats and SE Brooks Range where we expect scattered wet thunderstorms, though an isolated dry storm is possible. Temperatures will cool slightly and RHs will moderate. On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat moves to the AlCan border and remains in the Eastern Brooks Range. For now, widely scattered wet thunderstorms are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are beginning to rise as warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ911-933. Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-913-919-931>935-939-943-944-946. Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834. Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ839-840-844-845. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. && $$ CHRIEST