467
FXAK69 PAFG 170807
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1207 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers over the Interior taper off later today with a brief
reprieve in the wet weather. A powerful low over the Bering Sea
will make landfall in Bristol Bay, with the front clipping the YK
Delta with gales and more rainfall, which will spread into the
Yukon Valley and eventually the Interior. Cooler temps gradually
settle over the Mainland late week as arctic air seeps south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A deep low along the subtropical jet stream is developing over the
Bering Sea this morning, with that surface center currently
undergoing bomb cyclogenesis, with the pressure currently analyzed
around 975 mb near the Pribilof Islands. Over the Mainland, a
weakening upper low center is still migrating east over the
Interior, with that center analyzed around 537 dam aloft. Rain
showers wrapping around the back-end of the low are moving
through the E Interior.

Forecast and Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are fairly well clustered on the
strong low which will move into Bristol Bay, but there is a noted
trend north with thr front which will impact the YK Delta, so well
will shift that front north with a blend to the NAM, with the main
impact that gale force winds also move north. The coastal threats
will stay well to the south of the Yukon Delta, however. After
this low, a blend of models will capture the showers which move
into the Interior again Wednesday and Thursday, with cooler air
seeping south by Friday as weak arctic trough sets up over the
Mainland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers are tapering off today and by this afternoon, peaks of
some sun can be expected. South winds increase to 45 mph tonight
as a low dives into the Gulf. Dry weather will turn to more
showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, and that will continue into
Thursday as it becomes more steady light rainfall over the S
Interior and Alaska Range. Rain is slowly tapering off Thu night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The next strong Bering low is moving into Bristol Bay today, with
the leading front bringing another round of rainfall and wind to
the YK Delta and Norton Sound. However, this low track is much
further south with offshore winds. Gales are expected to impact
the Yukon Delta to Saint Lawrence Island into this evening, then
the low quickly shifts into the Gulf and winds will taper off.
Showers will continue intermittently into Friday as the flow
remains onshore. Some snow showers are possible below 1000 feet by
Thu night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Sporadic rain showers and fog will continue for the next several
days with weak low pressure persisting in the region. Snow levels
are falling to 1000 feet or less by Thu night with light snow
showers impacting the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain as arctic air
seeps south.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Arctic troughing is expected to move across the Mainland Friday
through Monday, with the main storm track remaining south. This
should allow for gradual drying, although higher elevation snow
showers are possible, especially over the E Interior as temps
cool, possibly below seasonal norms by late weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
More rainfall is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with another
0.5 to 0.75 inches over the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley/MIddle
Kusko Valley. Smaller stream rises are likely, but will not be
significant. Elsewhere, no concerns as rivers are running low due
to fairly low snow levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816-851-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher