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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
987 FXAK69 PAFG 122329 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 329 PM AKDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The Interior has cool and wet conditions, except the Northern Interior which remains warmer and drier, and will trend warmer and drier from Thu into the weekend. Numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms lie in a band from Chicken to Denali to Huslia now with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just north and south of this band and extending from Huslia to Point Hope. The thunder will taper off late tonight with the showers diminishing by Thu AM. The heaviest showers will be east of Denali. On Thu expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning. The North Slope is sunny and warmer than normal, and will remain warmer than normal through Fri. The coast will see fog and stratus clouds move onshore late tonight and then persist into Fri. The North Slope will cool and cloud up over the weekend. The West Coast is cool and wet with areas of fog, and will remain cool with areas of fog and a chance of rain into Fri. The West Coast warms and dries over the weekend. Surface Pattern... There is a thermal low pressure trough stretching from Chicken to Tanana to Point Hope with another trough stretching from Huslia to Anvik. This trough will move to Eagle to Coldfoot to Point Lay Thu, and to Northway to Coldfoot to Anaktuvuk Pass on Fri, and remain there into the weekend. The warmest and driest conditions will remain northeast of this trough. Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist into Fri and then weaken over the weekend. A vertically stacked 1010 mb low 200 NM southwest of Gambell will move to the Gulf of Anadyr as a 1016 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to 100 NM south of Wrangel Is as a 1011 mb low by 4pm Fri, then to 300 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1015 mb low by 4pm Sat. A low pressure trough extending south from this low will move along the West Coast on Thu, and over NW Ak on Fri, and then over the Western North Slope on Sat. This low and trough will bring isolated to scattered showers and cooler air north with it. These will also bring southwest wind 25 kt Sat over NW AK. && .DISCUSSION... Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions aloft through 4am Sat, then the Canadian model bring the strong low aloft over the Chukchi Sea southeast of NW AK, while the other models are much slower bringing this feature south of the West Coast of AK next week. At this time favor the slower movement of this feature given the strength of the blocking ridge building over AK this weekend. Will use a blend of the GFS/ NAM and ECMWF models through Sat for features aloft. The long wave pattern consists of a Rex Block with a strong high north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska, a low over the Gulf of Alaska, and a series of weak short waves moving east across Interior and West Coast of Alaska today into tonight. These short waves will help to focus convective showers today and tonight. A strong low over the Northern Bering Sea will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula on Thu, and another low will move from near Shemya to the Central Aleutians Thu. The ridge builds south over Mainland AK on Thu forming an omega block with the blocking ridge persisting over Mainland AK through the weekend. This will cause a warming and drying trend over the Interior and North Slope through Fri while the West Coast sees cooling from the cold low aloft moving into the area. The North Slope will cool and cloud up over the weekend while the West Coast warms and dries over the weekend. A short wave trough that stretches from Eagle to Fairbanks to Ambler to Point Hope will move to Chicken to Denali to Point Hope by 4am Thu, and to Northway to McGrath to Point Lay by 4pm Thu. This is causing the enhanced showers that will taper off late tonight or Thu AM, along with to widely scattered thunderstorms this PM. Showers will taper off as the ridge builds south over the trough area. A second short wave trough will move south to the Arctic Village east Thu, and to the SE Interior Thu night. This will help set off isolated PM thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Thu PM. A third short wave will drop south over the Eastern Interior Fri PM with a fourth short wave following the track on Sat. These could bring isolated PM thunderstorms, but due to the warming and drying airmass they will likely be dry. With precipitation, models show similar areas through Sat, but the GFS and ECMWF produce greater coverage and amounts for Fri and Sat. Given the building ridge on Thu and Fri and continuation into the weekend, expect showers to decrease in areal coverage through Fri. Do expect another 0.50-1.00 inch of rain along the Alaska Range east of Denali Park through Thu AM. Could see 0.25-0.50 inch from Denali to Point Hope through Thu am as well. With convection, numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms lie in a band from Chicken to Denali to Huslia with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just north and south of this band and extending from Huslia to Point Hope. The thunder will taper off late tonight with the showers diminishing by Thu AM. The heaviest showers will be east of Denali. On Thu expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning. At the surface models verify well and show similar solutions through Sat. Winds remain below 25 kt sustained through Fri, with southwest 25 kt possible Sat over NW AK. Over the Interior winds should remain below 15 mph sustained through Sat. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and wet conditions over most of the Interior, except the Northern Interior which remains warmer and drier, will become warmer and drier from Thu into the weekend. Numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms lie in a band from Chicken to Denali to Huslia now with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just north and south of this band and extending from Huslia to Point Hope. The thunder will taper off late tonight with the showers diminishing by Thu AM. The heaviest showers will be east of Denali. On Thu expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Fairbanks to Howard Pass. On Fri and Sat expect isolated thunderstorms from Chicken to Anaktuvuk, but they will be high based with low precip and the potential for dry lightning. && .HYDROLOGY... High water on rivers of the Central North Slope such as the Colville, the Kuparuk and the Sagavanirktok will fall slowly through the weekend, and then fall more next week. Minor flooding is possible along these rivers in low lying areas near the coast the next several days. Showers along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile River Basins started yesterday and will continue into Thursday morning. Showers will be heavy at times. Most of this area has had between one half inch and one inch of rain, with another inch of rain expected through Thursday morning. By the time the rain tapers off on Thursday this will make a two day rainfall total of between one and two inches with the heaviest amounts east of Denali Park. This rain could cause rapid rises on streams and small rivers in steep terrain. People in the Alaska Range east of Denali Park, and along the Goodpaster, Charlie and Fortymile Rivers should be alert to the possibility of heavy rain and rapidly rising streams and rivers tonight through Thursday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ JB