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FXAK69 PAFG 300905 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather
Service Fairbanks AK 1123 AM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the
weekend and into early next week. Areas of dense smoke from fires
burning is reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley.
Smoke will be in and out through the weekend. Dense smoke advisories
expected to continue. Isolated storms will persist into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering
Sea then drift across the Aleutians on Sunday as a 540 dam Low.
Ridging will persist over the Interior this weekend. A trough will
push across the eastern North slope late Sunday into Monday. Another
low over Russia will push a front across Northwest Alaska on
Tuesday. Ridging over the Interior will slowly break down Monday and
Tuesday. Models in good agreement through the short term. The HRRR
smoke model showing smoke persisting over the Interior through the
weekend.

Interior...Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior
through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and a few upper 80s over
the Yukon Flats. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is reducing
visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley. Smoke will be in and out
through the weekend. Air across Fairbanks and North Pole is very
unhealthy this morning. Dense smoke advisories have been extended
into Sunday. Smoke may thin and visibility may improve in the
afternoon around Fairbanks but become dense again early morning on
Sunday. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with rising
temps back into the 80s, and much lower thunderstorm activity, with
that ridge aloft suppressing thunderstorm potential. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms return over the southern Interior on
Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior... High pressure in control over the
majority of the west coast.
Western Interior will remain warm over the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Showers continue to rotate around the Yukon
Delta from the low in the southern Bering through the weekend.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from Grayling to Mcgrath
on Sunday. Some of these storms will be fairly strong and may
produce small hail and gusty winds with copious lightning.
Monday is another warm day, with increasing southwesterly winds as a
low approaches the NW Arctic. Possible change in the pattern by
Tuesday with temps cooling and a front bringing rain showers to the
west coast. Temps could drop to the 60s Tuesday into Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... A little less thunderstorm activity
today but still a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the eastern
Brooks Range today from Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. On
Sunday, isolated storms return over the southern Interior. A front
will begin to impact northwest Alaska and the western Brooks Range
with strong west-southwesterly winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Long range models are coming more
inline with a fairly large pattern shift beginning Tuesday, as a
front from E Siberia moves inland across the NW Arctic and shifts
east along the Brooks Range and eventually into the Interior through
the remainder of the week. This will bring increasing west-southwest
winds across the Mainland each day, with increasing chances for
rainfall and cooler temps.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and relatively dry over the Interior through the weekend and
into early Next week. Smoke and unhealthy air continues over the
Middle Tanana Valley down to Delta Junction. Dense Smoke Advisories
still in effect through Sunday. On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat
moves Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. For now, widely scattered
wet thunderstorms are expected. On Sunday, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms return over the southern Interior and
western Interior from Grayling to McGrath.

Major pattern shift begins Tue and Wed as the upper ridge breaks
down and a strong front moves into the NW Arctic and shifts east
through the week, bringing potential wetting rains and much cooler
temps, although strong southwest winds may create some critical fire
weather conditions prior to that. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range today may
feed into faster moving streams and cause rapid rises, which will
remain high into this weekend. Glacial fed rivers including the
Tanana are beginning to rise as warming temperatures lead to
increased high elevation snowmelt.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834-837-840-841-842-843-844-839.
PK...None.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher