Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
682 FXAK69 PAFG 150957 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 157 AM AKDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temps are warming into the weekend and will continue to run warmer into next week as ridging aloft builds over the Mainland. Isolated thunderstorms the next couple days will generally relegated to higher elevation terrain over the eastern half of the Interior with dry weather out west. Storms will also be likely the next few days over the E Brooks Range. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a 539 arctic low centered over the Chukchi Sea. There is a 570 dam upper level high centered over SW AK with the ridge axis extending northeast to the Beaufort Sea. There is a subtle shortwave trough dropping south over the AK Range with an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with it. Surface high pressure persists over the Beaufort Sea with another high over the Norton Sound, both of which are around 1027 mb. Model Discussion... Models are in excellent agreement with the general large scale pattern into next week as well as with overall basic details. Forecast confidence is high with a favored blend to NAM nest for winds and a blend of everything for all the other details. Central and Eastern Interior... Temps are warming through the weekend with some low 80s today, and widespread 80s on Sunday. It`ll be a few degrees cooler on Monday but still warm with some isolated low 80s. It will generally be drier as well, with isolated thunder today and tomorrow generally over higher elevation terrain. It will generally be partly cloudy otherwise. Light north winds today will turn more westerly the next couple of days. West Coast and Western Interior... Warming the next few days as ridging aloft builds in. Southwest winds to 30 mph will gradually weaken over the NW Arctic by Sunday night. North winds over the YK Delta will remain blustery. It`ll be dry otherwise with no notable weather besides some continued low stratus and fog over the marine waters, as well as the obviously warm temps. North Slope and Brooks Range... An arctic low off the Chukchi coast will continue to support 25 to 30 mpg winds through today before they gradually wane. Chances for showers will increase over the W Arctic as the low drops south Sunday night into Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms today over the Brooks Range will be possible from Anaktuvuk Pass east, and again on Sunday although more widespread, with scattered thunderstorms and heavier showers possible Monday as the arctic low shifts south. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Tuesday, the arctic low over the Chukchi is retrograding southwest and toward Siberia with Yukon ridging building over the E Interior, which means continued warmer temps over the Mainland and increased chances for thunderstorms. This general pattern looks to persist into next weekend, with a summery pattern for the Interior and Brooks Range, and seasonal temps and conditions over the West Coast and N Slope. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ridging aloft builds which means warming temps over the Mainland and even out west. Widespread 80s by Sunday over the Interior with min RH values in the 20s, and into the lower 20s over the Yukon Flats. Isolated wet thunderstorms will only be possible over the higher elevations of the E Interior and AK Range, as well as over the Brooks Range through Sun. Monday, widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the E Brooks as well as toward the AK Range as a thermal low develops. && .HYDROLOGY... High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that water levels will wither fall slowly or remain steady as increased warming over the Brooks Range may allow for additional snowmelt. The Colville is running near bankfull at Umiat and will likely remain so for a while. Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile River Basins the past few days. Rainfall amounts range from 0.5 to nearly 2 inches, with the heaviest amounts along the Alaska Range to the east of Denali Park. This water is now working its way down rivers. The small rivers have now crested and are beginning to fall. No flooding is expected. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. && $$ Ahsenmacher