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FNAK79 PAFG 210215
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for 119 McDonald...Yukon Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
615 PM AKDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 AKDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A thermal low pressure trough that was north of the
fire today, will move south over the fire on Friday, and then
south of the fire on Friday night and Saturday. These thermal
troughs will serve as the focus for instability and convective
showers with the focus of convection shifting gradually
southwestward over the next several days. This trough will cause
winds to turn northeastward on Friday afternoon and push the
smoke south of the fire starting at that time with those
conditions continuing into the weekend.

An upper level trough will approach the move over the fire from
the southeast tonight. This will bring numerous showers with
wetting rain tonight into early Friday.

We will see a drying and warming trend and a reduction in the
number of thunderstorms over the weekend.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of smoke
                    through the night. Isolated thunderstorms in
                    the evening. Scattered rain showers through the
                    night. Isolated thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................48 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 6 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around midnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Areas of smoke
                    in the morning. Scattered rain showers through
                    the day. Isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................42 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......North 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 4200 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 9 AM.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the night. Isolated rain showers
                    overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......North 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around midnight.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Areas of smoke
in the afternoon. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80. Light
winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Areas of smoke in the evening. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...CHAMBERS
Requested by...Casey Lasota
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416117.13/AFG
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0