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FNAK79 PAFG 210241
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Spot Forecast for Hermit 141...Alaska Fire Service
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
641 PM AKDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 AKDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A thermal low pressure trough poised just to the
south of the fire will move farther south of the fire on Friday
and Saturday. The thermal trough will serve as the focus of
instability and convective showers with the focus of convection
shifting southwestward over the next several days. This trough has
caused winds to turn northeastward over the fire this afternoon,
and they will remain northeast tonight and continue to remain
northeast through the weekend.

We will see a drying and warming trend from Friday into the
weekend.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated rain
                    showers through the night. Isolated
                    thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 8 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 11 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around midnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 6600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East around 16 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 9 AM.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 8 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 13 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around midnight.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...CHAMBERS
Requested by...Emmaly Gavin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416243.8/AFG
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0