Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
098 FXAK67 PAJK 251243 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 443 AM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SHORT TERM...Very little changes to the ongoing forecast. Remnants of an easterly wave persist for the Icy Strait corridor, causing light rain and drizzle. Expect these conditions to clear and become increasing dry through the morning hours. Increasing clouds in British Columbia will likely limit any substantial southerly and easterly thermal gradient. Therefore, expect winds to maximize to 15 knots for areas in Northern Lynn Canal and around 10 knots elsewhere. Finally, with the clearing skies and solar radiation, expect to see widespread local sea breezes during the daytime period. .LONG TERM...The start of the long term period Wednesday will feature a slight chance of an easterly wave mentioned at the tail end of the short range discussion. Once that is resolved, skies should begin to clear in earnest as high pressure builds over the Gulf. This will lead to continued light winds of 10 kt or less for a majority of the inside waters, with the exception being afternoon/evening sea breeze circulations such as northern Lynn Canal near Taku Inlet. As the ridge builds, there will be a slight tightening of the pressure gradient in the SE Gulf with winds out of the NW for coastal waters reaching around 20 kt. This is expected to be relatively short lived and peak late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overall the big picture is relatively unchanged for the remainder of the week with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid 60s and low to mid 70s in some areas. 850 mb temperatures still remain on track to be 8 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, and subsequently snow levels will be steadily rising to between 9,000 and 10,000 feet over a majority of the panhandle. Once again, being on the downstream side of the ridge, a marine layer is still possible to bring on and off cloudy conditions to the outer coastal communities which could limit daytime warming. Model guidance continues to wrestle with the idea of a system moving into the far southern gulf at the beginning of the weekend to break up the otherwise benign pattern. While timing and track remain somewhat scattered, the general consensus is that this system will not be particularly strong. Winds in the southern and central gulf will shift to be more easterly and increase in response to this advancing system, but are expected to remain below 25 kt. Overall lower forecaster confidence for timing of precipitation to return to the southern panhandle, with a nebulous timeframe of sometime this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates as the week progresses. && .AVIATION.../ through Tuesday night / Biggest aviation hazard for Tuesday primarily will ceilings. Fairly widespread ceilings below 3000 ft, except for far southern portion of the the panhandle. A few locales have lower ceilings around 500 ft ( Yakutat and Petersburg for example ) and there are reports of patchy fog drifting through some airport sights as well. Anticipate a ceilings to increase around 18z today and then should remain above the VFR limit. Will likely see clouds lower below 3000 ft for a good portion of the panhandle overnight Lighter winds to persist so not expecting issues due to wind. && .HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain high over the next several days and are even expected to increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site shows around 9.7 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high water persists. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau