504
FXAK67 PAJK 251316
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
516 AM AKDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...
Quick Notes:
-Next weather event of any real concern is on Thursday, which
 details can be found in the LONG TERM section.
-For today, on/off rainy and showery weather continues.
-Temps near normal for late September.
-Winds much lighter than previous few days.

Details: More of the same weather is in store.

Low pressure will spin in the gulf through tonight. This will keep
the showery weather pattern in place. Some evidence of a weak front,
associated with the low already spinning in the gulf, may reinforce
light rain in the south this evening.

Wind speeds will remain light, or decrease even more, through the
day today into tonight. The main exceptions will be the far south,
where wind speeds may begin to pick up late tonight as the next
low approaches, and in Lynn Canal, were the pressure gradient
will tighten up, allowing winds to increase to around 15 knots.

.LONG TERM...The mid-range begins with a rain-filled start as
waves of precipitation continue to rotate in around a decaying low
in the Gulf. Periods of rain will remain throughout most of the
area until precip chances diminish across the northern half of the
panhandle on Thursday as a system approaches from the SW and cuts
off the moisture support and onshore flow to the N. Operation
guidance has converged on a more northerly track with this system
than previously progged, which will see it move across the Dixon
Entrance and then into southern panhandle. Operational guidance
is still having some trouble pinning down the exact track the
system thus far, but it is safe to say that rain and wind are
anticipated with this low. Anticipate that the relative rain
amounts will be lower than the previous system.

Through much of the weekend, chances of rain diminish, though
lingering moisture transport will maintain some chances of precip.
This situation abruptly reverses as a potentially strong Autumn
system arrives Sunday or Monday. Ensemble guidance is broadly
placing the center of the low over the western Gulf, but the
potential for broad areas of storm force winds over the eastern Gulf
and strong or even high winds across parts of the panhandle are
possible if an anticipated frontal band proves as strong as some
guidance is suggesting. This system will need to be closely
monitored over the next week, as minor changes in timing or track
could have large variations on resulting storm strength and
impacts to SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Wednesday night / General low in Northern
Gulf of Alaska has pushed shower activity into the panhandle and
an organized band early Wednesday. Showers will continue through
the day. Showers will lead to locally lower visibilities and
ceilings. Gusts near showers may also result in temporary
turbulence or light wind shear, from outflows. Ceilings early
Wednesday range from 600 ft to 2000 ft. Conditions are anticipated
to improve through the day.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...Bezenek

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