Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
686 FXAK67 PAJK 231347 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 547 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/... Quick Notes: -Recent front clears through the panhandle today. -Leftover on/off rain and showers expected through tonight. -Wind speeds more-or-less stay steady through the day, with decreasing speeds tonight. Details: The recent front will finish tracking through the panhandle early this morning. But the parent low will sit and spin in the northern gulf. So on/off rain and showers will linger around the panhandle today. Wind speeds will remain steady through most of today due to an expected tight gradient over SE AK. But as the low weakens tonight, the gradient will weaken, and wind speeds will decrease. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Sunday/...The mid-range begins with a rain-filled start as waves of precipitation continue to rotate in around a decaying low in the Gulf. Periods of rain will remain throughout most of the area until precip chances diminish across the northern half of the panhandle on Thursday as a system approaches from the SW and cuts off the moisture support and onshore flow to the N. This new low will likely avoid a direct hit on the panhandle, instead moving from the SW to the NE across the Haida Gwaii area. Operational guidance has had trouble pinning down the exact track the system takes thus far, but it is safe to say that rain and wind are anticipated with this low. Anticipate that the relative rain amounts and wind speeds will be lower than the previous system. Through much of the weekend, chances of rain diminish, though lingering moisture transport will maintain some chances of precip. This situation abruptly reverses as a potentially strong Autumn system arrives Sunday or Monday. Ensemble guidance is broadly placing the center of the low over the western Gulf, but the potential for broad areas of storm force winds over the eastern Gulf and strong or even high winds across parts of the panhandle are possible if an anticipated frontal bands proves as strong as some guidance is suggesting. This system will need to be closely monitored over the next week, as minor changes in timing or track could have large variations on resulting storm strength and impacts to SE AK. && .AVIATION... Predominate MVFR or worse conditions across the panhandle this morning under BKN to OVC skies and showers as a strong front pushes inland through Monday morning with a low remaining anchored in the western Gulf of Alaska near Prince William Sound. Anticipating showers and MVFR or worse flight conditions to continue through at least Tuesday morning as this low remains stationary over the western Gulf, overspreading persistent on- shore flow. Could see a brief break by late afternoon with a few hours of improvement up to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft, but forecast confidence is low in that regard. Winds will remain elevated through the period with sustained winds 10 to 20kts and frequent gusts up to 20 to 30kts. LLWS and mechanical turbulence will remain through much of the period with likeliest locations across Gulf coast and interior southern panhandle TAF sites into Tuesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Monday through Wednesday will feature a very wet period of time as reinforcing fronts and persistent on-shore flow overspreads showers across the area. 24-hour rain totals for Monday through Wednesday up to 1 to 2 inches are expected across most of Southeast Alaska. Anticipating rainfall will continue through at least Wednesday morning, but accumulations and intensity will diminish through midweek. Still, local rivers, creeks, and streams are fully expected to respond to this rainfall with the more flashy systems likely approaching bankful by Monday morning. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-036-053- 641>644-651-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GJS LONG TERM....GFS AVIATION...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau