686
FXAK67 PAJK 231347
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
547 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...
Quick Notes:
-Recent front clears through the panhandle today.
-Leftover on/off rain and showers expected through tonight.
-Wind speeds more-or-less stay steady through the day, with
decreasing speeds tonight.

Details: The recent front will finish tracking through the
panhandle early this morning. But the parent low will sit and spin
in the northern gulf. So on/off rain and showers will linger
around the panhandle today.

Wind speeds will remain steady through most of today due to an
expected tight gradient over SE AK. But as the low weakens tonight,
the gradient will weaken, and wind speeds will decrease.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Sunday/...The mid-range begins
with a rain-filled start as waves of precipitation continue to
rotate in around a decaying low in the Gulf. Periods of rain will
remain throughout most of the area until precip chances diminish
across the northern half of the panhandle on Thursday as a system
approaches from the SW and cuts off the moisture support and
onshore flow to the N. This new low will likely avoid a direct hit
on the panhandle, instead moving from the SW to the NE across the
Haida Gwaii area. Operational guidance has had trouble pinning
down the exact track the system takes thus far, but it is safe to
say that rain and wind are anticipated with this low. Anticipate
that the relative rain amounts and wind speeds will be lower than
the previous system.

Through much of the weekend, chances of rain diminish, though
lingering moisture transport will maintain some chances of precip.
This situation abruptly reverses as a potentially strong Autumn
system arrives Sunday or Monday. Ensemble guidance is broadly
placing the center of the low over the western Gulf, but the
potential for broad areas of storm force winds over the eastern Gulf
and strong or even high winds across parts of the panhandle are
possible if an anticipated frontal bands proves as strong as some
guidance is suggesting. This system will need to be closely
monitored over the next week, as minor changes in timing or track
could have large variations on resulting storm strength and impacts
to SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...

Predominate MVFR or worse conditions across the panhandle this
morning under BKN to OVC skies and showers as a strong front
pushes inland through Monday morning with a low remaining
anchored in the western Gulf of Alaska near Prince William Sound.
Anticipating showers and MVFR or worse flight conditions to
continue through at least Tuesday morning as this low remains
stationary over the western Gulf, overspreading persistent on-
shore flow. Could see a brief break by late afternoon with a few
hours of improvement up to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB
5000ft, but forecast confidence is low in that regard. Winds will
remain elevated through the period with sustained winds 10 to
20kts and frequent gusts up to 20 to 30kts. LLWS and mechanical
turbulence will remain through much of the period with likeliest
locations across Gulf coast and interior southern panhandle TAF
sites into Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Monday through Wednesday will feature a very wet period of time as
reinforcing fronts and persistent on-shore flow overspreads
showers across the area. 24-hour rain totals for Monday through
Wednesday up to 1 to 2 inches are expected across most of
Southeast Alaska. Anticipating rainfall will continue through at
least Wednesday morning, but accumulations and intensity will
diminish through midweek. Still, local rivers, creeks, and
streams are fully expected to respond to this rainfall with the
more flashy systems likely approaching bankful by Monday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-036-053-
     641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...NM

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