Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
517 FXAK67 PAJK 271248 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 448 AM AKDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / Marine stratus layer out over the the central gulf as clouds near portions of the coastal communities. Anticipate stratus pushing off shore during the day again. Do think stratus will push back to the coast overnight into early Friday. Easterly flow from British Columbia will bring midday and afternoon convection development. In this convection, isolated thunderstorms will develop from midday into the evening. While some shores spreading over the coastal range, am not very confident many will do so. High temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover again today so potentially a 50 to lower 70 degree range. Cooler temperatures under the marine stratus should linger near the coast. .LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, the possibility of some easterly showers moving over the area. Winds should remain light with the exception of near some of these showers which could bring some localized gusty winds. This will continue before models continue to show that a low will enter the southern gulf which will bring an increased chance of precipitation for the weekend and into next week. Overall, accumulations still look to remain low but did up the forecast rain amounts for the area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a overall weak system that looks to potentially persist headed into next week which could aid in more easterly wave showers returning to Southeast Alaska. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions for the panhandle with the exception of the outer coast for this TAF issuance. With clearing skies, widespread sea breezes will develop later this morning, and diminish late this evening. On the northern panhandle, stronger wind speeds, particularly in Taiya Inlet, will be present with increasing temperatures in British Columbia. These winds will win out unless convective activity successfully moves close to the border between Alaska and Canada this afternoon. There are signals that afternoon convection could move into the northern panhandle and result in a few strikes, but likelihood at this time is low. Finally, the offshore marine layer looks to move in once again tonight, bringing IFR CIG conditions. && .MARINE...Due to quiet winds and surface high pressure over the gulf, no big concerns for the marine zones in the short term forecast. Wave heights of 3 to 5 feet in the gulf with inner channel waves forecasted to be around 1 to 3 feet. Northern Lynn could see the highest waves, around 3 feet, due to wind speeds increasing to around 15 knots Thursday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain high over the next several days and are even expected to increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site shows around 7.6 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high water persists. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....SF AVIATION...NC MARINE...Bezenek HYDROLOGY...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau