098
FXAK67 PAJK 251243
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
443 AM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Very little changes to the ongoing forecast.
Remnants of an easterly wave persist for the Icy Strait corridor,
causing light rain and drizzle. Expect these conditions to clear
and become increasing dry through the morning hours. Increasing
clouds in British Columbia will likely limit any substantial
southerly and easterly thermal gradient. Therefore, expect winds
to maximize to 15 knots for areas in Northern Lynn Canal and
around 10 knots elsewhere. Finally, with the clearing skies and
solar radiation, expect to see widespread local sea breezes during
the daytime period.

.LONG TERM...The start of the long term period Wednesday will
feature a slight chance of an easterly wave mentioned at the tail
end of the short range discussion. Once that is resolved, skies
should begin to clear in earnest as high pressure builds over the
Gulf. This will lead to continued light winds of 10 kt or less for
a majority of the inside waters, with the exception being
afternoon/evening sea breeze circulations such as northern Lynn
Canal near Taku Inlet. As the ridge builds, there will be a slight
tightening of the pressure gradient in the SE Gulf with winds out
of the NW for coastal waters reaching around 20 kt. This is
expected to be relatively short lived and peak late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

Overall the big picture is relatively unchanged for the remainder
of the week with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid
60s and low to mid 70s in some areas. 850 mb temperatures still
remain on track to be 8 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the
week, and subsequently snow levels will be steadily rising to
between 9,000 and 10,000 feet over a majority of the panhandle.
Once again, being on the downstream side of the ridge, a marine
layer is still possible to bring on and off cloudy conditions to
the outer coastal communities which could limit daytime warming.

Model guidance continues to wrestle with the idea of a system
moving into the far southern gulf at the beginning of the weekend
to break up the otherwise benign pattern. While timing and track
remain somewhat scattered, the general consensus is that this
system will not be particularly strong. Winds in the southern and
central gulf will shift to be more easterly and increase in
response to this advancing system, but are expected to remain
below 25 kt. Overall lower forecaster confidence for timing of
precipitation to return to the southern panhandle, with a nebulous
timeframe of sometime this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast updates as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION.../ through Tuesday night / Biggest aviation hazard for
Tuesday primarily will ceilings. Fairly widespread ceilings below
3000 ft, except for far southern portion of the the panhandle. A
few locales have lower ceilings around 500 ft ( Yakutat and
Petersburg for example ) and there are reports of patchy fog
drifting through some airport sights as well. Anticipate a
ceilings to increase around 18z today and then should remain above
the VFR limit. Will likely see clouds lower below 3000 ft for a
good portion of the panhandle overnight

Lighter winds to persist so not expecting issues due to wind.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today
due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to
remain high over the next several days and are even expected to
increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site
shows around 9.7 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet
elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at
higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River
it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few
days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high
water persists.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Bezenek

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