252
FXAK67 PAJK 241326
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
526 AM AKDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Minor changes to the ongoing forecast. For winds,
large scale thermal gradients from clearing skies in British
Columbia and the Yukon yesterday and again today will cause
enhanced wind speeds in the inner channels, particularly for Icy
Strait/Point Couverden area, northern Stephens Passage, and
northern Lynn Canal. Expect wind speeds to maximize during the
afternoon around 20 knots for any area mentioned.

For precipitation, made edits to PoPs to bring up chances around
Petersburg and Juneau during the early morning, and continuing the
trend westward across to Pelican through early afternoon. This is
due to some vorticity advection making its way westward, providing
some minor upward motion in a very moist atmospheric profile.

.LONG TERM...Continuing from the short range, the extended
forecast once again remains relatively unchanged with lingering
showers diminishing into Tuesday, followed by a warming and
drying trend. Models continue to come into agreement for a
surface ridge to build in over the gulf which will bring clearing
skies to the inner channels and overall warmer surface
temperatures due to abundant summer sunshine and warmer
temperatures at 850 mb. High temperatures in general are set to
reach the upper 60s and low to mid 70s for a majority of the
panhandle in the latter half of the week. This will also lead to
generally light winds overall throughout the panhandle. With low
pressure developing during daytime over BC, there remains a slight
chance for showers to develop but are expected to struggle to
make it past the Coast Mountains. Expect the highest winds with
the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoon and evening
hours, such as Taku Inlet. Being on the downstream side of the
ridge, the exception to otherwise clearer skies would be any
marine layer potentially moving into coastal communities which in
turn could limit daytime warming.

As is often the case, model guidance is not in full agreement on
the longevity of the blocking ridge in the upper levels and
subsequent surface high in the northern gulf. The strength and
position of this high pressure over the northern gulf will
strongly influence when more organized unsettled weather will
make its way back into the panhandle. Ensemble guidance is leaning
towards bringing a system into the southern gulf sometime
Friday/Saturday. Depending upon its strength and track, this could
cause easterly showers to develop and propagate over the southern
panhandle during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of low ceilings is the main hazard this morning
across Southeast Alaska. Ceiling under 600 ft are impacting
coastal airports like Sitka and Yakutat this morning and the
stratus as also spread to Gustavus. There is also a pocket near
Petersburg, the remainder of northern inner channels has ceilings
under 3000 feet. Ceilings for the southern half of the panhandle
are in the 3000 to 6000 ft range. Expect clouds to improve
slightly during the day. Not expecting much in strong winds
although, some may gust in to the low 20s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Chilkat River continues to run right around minor
flood stage today and is expected to continue to fluctuate right
around minor flood stage into the early part of the week.
Temperatures aloft are expected to remain mostly high and are even
expected to increase later in the week as clouds depart the area
leading to more runoff from high elevation snow melt. As such the
river is expected to remain near or above minor flood stage for
the next few days at least. The result is that the Flood Advisory
has been extended again for the Chilkat. It now ends at 7 pm
Wednesday and may be extended further in the coming days depending
on how much snow is left to melt in the upper reaches of the basin.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Bezenek

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