Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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603 FXUS61 KAKQ 030542 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers this evening into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 140 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Isolated light showers continue overnight. The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave moving across the local area with isolated light showers/sprinkles. Convection has been tapering off, however, CAMs show the potential for redevelopment later tonight into Mon morning with convection shifting SE with time. Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s expected amidst mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected Monday afternoon. There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding across central and southeast Virginia. - A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon. Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s with temps rising into the 80s. Weak NW flow aloft will prevail, and another weak shortwave will approach later Mon before tracking over the area Mon night-early Tue. A weak surface low likely over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered tstms in the afternoon. CAMs continue to show the highest coverage of convection along the I-64 Corridor, especially in SE VA. Will maintain likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as storm coverage is expected to be a bit less. With relatively slow storm motions expected given the weak deep-layer flow and moderately high (1.5-1.7") PW values, any storm will be capable of producing a quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to result in flooding of urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas. WPC has added a MRGL ERO for central and SE VA to account for the localized flash flood risk. Not expecting that much in the way of severe wx but can`t rule out gusts to 40-50 mph in the strongest storms due to wet microbursts. Tstms quickly taper off late Mon evening with the loss of daytime heating. High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren`t expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights. Upper ridging briefly builds over the area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at the same time. A cold front will approach from the NW, but likely won`t cross the area until Thu night. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross the area late Wednesday and will provide enough forcing for scattered tstms to form during the aftn (highest PoPs west of I-95) and move east during the evening. Highs Wed mainly in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the ern shore). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday. - Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend. - Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, then slightly cooler with lower humidity from Friday through the weekend. A cutoff low likely forms over the Great Lakes by Wed and moves SE into the NE CONUS by late this week. At the surface, a cold front approaches and likely crosses the area Thu night. Scattered afternoon tstms are again possible on Thu, with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Will maintain low (15-30%) PoPs for mainly aftn/evening showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) Fri through the weekend with the upper low/cold pool aloft nearby even with the cold front SE of the area. However, not expecting that much in the way of coverage (and dry wx will prevail from Fri-Sun). Highs well into the 80s on Thu before falling back into the 80-85F range in most areas (with noticeably less humidity) from Fri through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Monday... Primarily VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 6z taf period. Isolated light showers/sprinkles will continue to be possible through tonight and into Mon morning, gradually shifting SE into SE VA/NE NC by Mon morning. However, coverage is too low to use more than VCSH in the tafs. Model guidance does show some MVFR CIGs in S central VA late tonight into Mon morning, however, these lower CIGs are expected to remain away from the local terminals. Scattered storms are expected to develop Mon afternoon before tapering off Mon evening. Locally IFR VIS and perhaps MVFR CIGs are possible with any storms. That being said, timing and coverage on CAMs don`t provide enough confidence to narrow down the timeframe at this time. As such, have VCTS for all terminals this afternoon with the best chance at RIC/ORF/PHF. Additionally, some model guidance is now showing the potential for patchy fog and/or IFR CIGs in the Piedmont Mon night (perhaps making it to RIC). Otherwise, winds were generally SSW ~5 kt tonight. Winds become SW and increase to 5-10 kt Mon, becoming variable at RIC and W at SBY in the afternoon. Winds become light and variable Mon night. Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening tstms are possible on Wed/Thu. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday. - Daily chances for storms over the waters, especially Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. - Low rip current risk Monday and Tuesday. Mainly quiet conditions on the marine front this afternoon. S winds are averaging 10-15 kt, with a few obs in the 15-18 kt range in the upper bay. Winds should increase some areawide over the next few hours and will tend to become 15-20 kt on the coastal waters this evening into tonight. Similar to last night, there will likely be another S/SW surge in the bay tonight (best chance around ~6z/2 AM). Winds may briefly gust to 20-25 kt for a time. Will again refrain from issuing headlines due to the brief/marginal nature. Quiet conditions again tomorrow (Monday) as a weakening boundary drops S through the waters. Winds should remain southerly 5-10 kt for most of the day before winds shift E or NE late Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered showers and storms Monday could also produce briefly higher winds and waves (SMWs will be issued as necessary). An approaching cold front will kick up the southerly flow later Wednesday through Thursday. The highest winds (potential for 20+ kts) will be confined to the nrn coastal waters. Otherwise, winds will near 18 kt elsewhere and will probably eventually need a SCA for portions of the waters. Lighter winds and offshore flow expected Friday through the weekend. Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft) tonight w/ the elevated SW winds. Seas also increase to 2-3 ft (cannot rule out 4 ft seas out 20 nm across the N). Seas then fall off to 1-2 ft Mon night-early Tuesday, before becoming 2-3 ft Tue night through Wed. Potential for seas to become 3-4 ft Thu (again highest N). The rip current risk is expected to be low through Tuesday. The rip risk likely increases to (at least) moderate Wed and Thu with nearshore waves increasing to around 3 ft, with the highest threat across the northern beaches where the wind and swell will be oriented more shore-normal. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM LONG TERM...ERI/RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...SW