145
FXUS61 KAKQ 090722
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered across the southeast through
Sunday. Another weak cold front pushes through the region late
Sunday into Monday, with the front lingering along the southeast
coast through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered
  showers/storms to the area with highest coverage along the
  coast.

- Highs will be around 90 for much of the area, mid 80s on the
  Eastern Shore and far northern locations.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just to the W of
Appalachia and is progressing toward the local area. Aloft, low
pressure is situated to the N of the Great Lakes with the associated
trough dipping into the upper Midwest. Today, the cold front will
cross the FA and the trough aloft will deepen into the eastern CONUS
as UL low pressure slides E. As the front passes through, there will
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, a lack of
moisture will make it hard to get any substantial coverage of
precip. Moisture is a bit higher at the coast (highest in the SE),
so that`s where coverage will likely be highest. Have Chc PoPs
starting in the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck in the early-mid
afternoon hours with Schc elsewhere N of I-64. Showers/storms
progress to the SE in the late afternoon through early evening. Have
introduced 45-60% PoPs to portions of Hampton Roads and the lower
Eastern Shore given agreement between the 00z CAMs for this. After
sunset, precip should be limited mostly to NE NC and far SE VA.
Given lack of moisture, QPF should mostly be <0.1". Temps will be
able to rise to around 90 ahead of the front for much of the area,
but the Eastern Shore and far northern locations will be a few
degrees cooler. Winds become westerly today and will gust 20-25mph
during the afternoon. The front pushes offshore by tomorrow morning.
Lows will range from the upper 50s in the NW piedmont to the upper
60s in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday evening, with
widely scattered showers and storms.

- Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods of
isolated showers Monday night, potentially increasing over the
eastern half of the area on Tuesday.

Stacked low pressure over eastern Canada will allow a weak front to
approach/cross the region Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Relatively meager moisture will result in isolated to scattered
shower/storm coverage during the afternoon with somewhat greater
moisture across the SE third of the area allowing for more numerous
convection into the evening. High temps Sunday rise into the mid to
upper 80s over much of the area with a few low 90s expected for the
SE where clouds and showers will hold off longer. Overnight low
temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid and upper 60s SE.

The front should move offshore by sunrise Monday. Removed the
mention of isolated showers from the forecast given dry air aloft
and lack of lift in the post-frontal airmass. Highs Monday in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Some forcing for ascent moves in Monday night
as a trough aloft digs to our west. Will limit PoPs to just a slight
chance overnight with the eastern half of the area favored. 12z
guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the
development and evolution of surface low pressure across the region
on Tuesday. The ECMWF remains the most bullish while the GFS and
Canadian continue to show a mostly dry forecast for the region. Will
maintain slight chance to chance PoPs across the eastern half of the
area on Tuesday into the overnight. Regardless of the specifics,
increased cloud cover will tend to limit daytime heating with highs
in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance
for afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Upper ridging over the central Gulf Coast expands NE into the Mid-
Atlantic region mid to late week with Bermuda high pressure taking
shape as well, resulting in mostly dry conditions and building heat.
Highs Wednesday will rise back into the mid and upper 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s. A few degrees warmer on Thursday with
potentially some isolated showers and storms moving into the
Piedmont from the west. Highs near 90 degrees with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s. The heat peaks on Friday with widespread low to mid
90s away from the coast. Remaining mostly in the 90s on Saturday
with a slightly higher probability of afternoon showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN-OVC high
level clouds stretch across the FA tonight. These are expected
to partially scatter out early in the morning. However, weak
cold front passage will bring high and mid level clouds back.
Also, isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms are expected to
pass through the area in the afternoon through the late evening
hours. Light southerly winds tonight become westerly with gusts
to around 20kt during the afternoon. Lighter NW winds expected
behind the front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday evening.
Showers/tstms will again be possible along the coast late Monday
night through Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Southwest winds increase to 15-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots
tonight.

- South winds increase to 15-20 knots late Friday into Friday night
with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Sunday and Monday.

High pressure remains centered across the Southeast into tonight. A
weak surface trough approaches the local waters overnight. As such,
winds shift from variable ~5-7 kt this afternoon to S/SE 10-15 kt
this evening, becoming SW 15-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest
across the coastal waters). Marginal SCA conditions are possible
overnight, however, conditions appear marginal (wind probs for 18 kt
sustained winds were 50-60% for the bay but only for 3 hours). Given
marginal wind probs and SW winds over warm waters leading to
potentially less effective mixing, will hold off on SCAs at this
time. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt by Sun morning, becoming W with
a few gusts to 20 kt across the rivers Sun afternoon, then becoming
N/NNW 10-15 kt Sun night behind a cold front. High pressure builds
back in from the W with a weak coastal low moving along the coast
late Mon through Tue night. However, winds appear to remain below
SCA criteria. Another weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of
Mexico from mid-late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt Fri
into Fri night. SCAs are possible for this surge.

Waves and seas were ~1 ft and ~2 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight,
subsiding to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Sun afternoon. Additionally, there
is a low rip current risk Sun and Mon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...ESS/RMM