667
FXUS61 KAKQ 100809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough approaches the area later today, and
lingers closer to the coast through Tuesday, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms. High pressure settles across
the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and
Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring scattered showers/storms to the
  area late this evening over southern VA and NE NC, before
  tapering off overnight.

A weak cold front has now pushed well south of the area, and is
located across SE NC. A broken line of showers continues in the
vicinity of the Albemarle sound in NE NC, with just lingering
mid/high clouds elsewhere. Some patchy fog is developing over
interior southern VA, but do not expect dense fog as lower dew
pts are slowly spreading south. Lows through sunrise will be as
cool as near 50F across the far NW, with mostly upper 50s to
lower 60s elsewhere.

An upper level trough to our NW will slowly approach the area
later today. With low dew pts today, PoPs look very limited
until very late aftn or more likely this evening. INstability
looks about zero through this evening so not expecting any tstms
through the aftn. Latest CAMs show just spotty shower development,
mainly over the NW by late aftn and will have slight chc PoPs
by late aftn in these areas. Highs today will be cooler, mainly
in the lower-mid 80s. By tonight, as the upper low tracks closer
to the area, along with weak sfc convergence as a weak surface
low and cold front moves through, PoPs increase to ~30% across
the N, with 10-20% S. Models (even the GFS), show some
instability closer to the coast tonight, so will include
mention of tstms, though not strong storms are expected. Lows
tonight mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers or storms mainly near the coast
  Tuesday.

- Dry and seasonable with high pressure Wednesday

With the upper low still crossing the region on Tuesday, along
with weak sfc low pressure along the coast, expect scattered
showers/storms to develop from late Tue morning through Tue
afternoon near/along the coast. Raised PoPs to ~50% across NE NC
and far SE VA, and to ~40% over portions of the eastern shore.
Some locally heavy downpours will be possible, but widespread
higher QPF amounts are not expected given poorly organized
storms. Highs Tuesday will be slightly below avg, in the upper
70s to lower 80s Lows in the mid- upper 50s W and low- mid 60s E
Mon night and mid 50s W to low- mid 60s E Tue night are
expected. Sfc high pressure settles across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing dry conditions. Comfortably cool
Tue night with lows mostly in the 50s to lower 60s. Seasonable
highs for Wed ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the
coast, with dew pts in the 50s keeping conditions rather
pleasant.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Turning hot late in the week but only moderate humidity levels
  will keep Heat index values near or just slightly above actual
  air temperatures.

- Mainly a dry period with a slight chance for late
  afternoon/evening showers and storms Friday (most areas), and
  Saturday (mainly south).

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds
east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern
Canada. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along
the east coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will
increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday, with Friday
likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average
into the mid to perhaps upper 90s well inland across central
VA/metro RIC, with low-mid 90s most other places. However, given
the continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the
upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being
much warmer than the actual air temp. Heat Advisories look
unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper
90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat with
temps back in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland by next weekend,
and probably into the lower 80s near the coast. Additionally, a
few isolated showers/storms are possible Fri evening into early
Fri night (across N portions of the FA) as well as Sat
afternoon (across NE NC and SE VA). Lows look to be warmest Thu
and Fri nights as temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban
locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with low-
mid 60s inland and upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

A weak cold front has now pushed through the area, now located
just S of the Albemarle Sound. Winds are generally light inland,
and NE at 5-10 kt near the coast in SE VA and NE NC. A broken
line of showers continues from the vicinity of ORF S across NE
NC, but conditions are mainly VFR with just a few pockets of
MVFR VSBYs in the moderate to heavy showers. Included a TEMPO
group through 08Z at ECG to account for this, but will keep it
VFR elsewhere. Dry/VFR conditions prevail for the rest of the
morning and generally through the aftn with W winds to around 10
kt. A few showers/storms are possible mainly across the north,
possibly to include RIC this evening, though coverage will be
limited. A secondary boundary drops through the region late
tonight/Tuesday morning, with winds turning to the N/NE.

Outlook:
Additional isolated convection possible Tuesday afternoon,
primarily near the coast. VFR conditions should then prevail
with dry weather Tue night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA prevail through at least mid week, but stronger winds and
higher waves will be possible with convection.

- Elevated winds and waves possible late in the week ahead of a cold
front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Monday, potentially
trending toward moderate Tuesday across southern beaches.


Yesterday`s cold front has pushed offshore as of early morning sfc
analysis. Behind it, strong high pressure from central Canada is
building toward the Mid-Atlantic. Latest wind obs are showing
generally light winds out of the NNW, with a few sites on the
eastern side of the Ches Bay showing speeds on either side of 10kt.
Wind direction will vary through the day. Winds turn westerly (5-
10kt) during the morning, then development of a sea breeze turns the
flow onshore for at least southern coastal waters during the
afternoon and evening. A secondary front crosses through the area
tonight, turning winds back to the N, becoming 10-15kt before
sunrise on Tues. Low pressure is then expected to develop offshore
Tues and winds become northeasterly. While the forecast calls for 10-
15kt, can certainly see the potential for slightly stronger winds
Tues morning if the low is stronger than modeled. Will note that the
local wind probs show less than 10% for sustained winds of 18kt or
greater, so SCAs do not seem likely at this point. Periods of
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
with the secondary front and low pressure, which could lead to
briefly higher winds and waves/seas. Winds turn light and northerly
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low moves away from the coast
and high pressure fills in. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday
evening, turning winds to the SE at ~10kt. Elevated winds will be
possible ahead of a potential cold front at the end of the week, but
looks sub-SCA for now.

Seas are around 2ft this morning and waves are 1ft or less. Seas
stay at 2ft through Wed, but waves in the bay will increase to 1-2ft
with northerly winds Tues morning. Seas may increase to 3-4ft and
waves to 1-3ft late in the week ahead of a potential cold front. The
rip risk looks mainly low, though may trend toward moderate across
srn beaches Tuesday w/ nearshore waves 2-3 ft and NNE winds 10-20
mph.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AM