Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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658 FXUS61 KAKQ 220758 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds south along the Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs will slide across the region in northwest flow aloft bringing on and off rain chances. Seasonal temperatures are expected to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A backdoor cold front brings cloudy conditions and isolated showers. Persistent low pressure continues to spin well offshore to the NE this morning. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor cold front is draped across far northeastern portions of the FA. Aloft, NW flow continues over the FA with the trough offshore and a broad ridge to the W. There are some spotty showers associated with the front which are located across portions of the Eastern Shore as of latest radar. These will shift SW toward the Northern Neck/southern Eastern Shore area through the early morning hours. Obs are indicating some fog, but this is mostly limited to the NE portion of the area so far. May need a targeted Dense Fog Advisory for Louisa and adjacent counties as we get closer to sunrise. The backdoor front will drift SW through the day bringing cloudy conditions and isolated showers. Have kept PoPs to 15-20% for most of the day. Low clouds will persist over much of the area for most of the day, but may start to scatter out some closer to sunset, especially closer to the coast. Highs today will range from the mid- 70s in the NE to around 80 in the SW. Lows tonight will be on either side of 60. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Pleasant start to the week with dry weather and highs in the 70s - Low end chances for showers on Tuesday. Sfc low pressure offshore will finally make some progress on its journey S Mon into Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure centered well to the N will build down the E coast. The ridge aloft slides east early week, its axis sliding in overhead late Monday/early Tuesday. The ridge looks to amplify along the coast mid week as a trough deepens over the Plains. Mon looks to be dry locally (albeit cloudy), but a shortwave trough approaching the region may bring chances for showers on Tues. However, high pressure at the coast may limit rain to western counties. Have Chc PoPs W of I-95 on Tues and SChc to the E. Temps on Mon look pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps don`t look terribly different Tues, but thick cloud cover and higher rain chances may keep highs around 70 in the NW. Lows Mon and Tues night will be in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Multiple low-end chances for precip next week. The ridge aloft will slide offshore Wed as the trough moves into the Upper Midwest. SW flow will bring more moisture into the area, and a series of weak shortwaves will yield several opportunities for rain. Confidence is low, however, given disagreements between the global models on how to handle the UL trough and the potential tropical system in the Gulf. Stuck generally to NBM for PoPs given this uncertainty which gives widespread Chc PoPs Wed and Thurs. Could also see showers Fri/Sat, but only have SChc these days. Highs will be similar Wed-Fri with upper 70s-low 80s in the SE and mid-70s in the NW. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... Flight restrictions, primarily MVFR, are likely across all terminals during the 06z TAF period as a backdoor cold front drops across the FA. RIC will likely be the first impacted, dropping into IFR within the next few hours. While low CIGs are the primary concern, nearby obs in the area have been showing some fog as well. The remaining terminals drop into MVFR later this morning (09-12z) as the lower CIGs spread E and S. MVFR likely persists until late morning or early afternoon near the coast and into the late afternoon inland. SE winds will become NE behind the front. A few showers are expected along the front. Have not included these in the TAFs due to low coverage of precip/low confidence in terminal impacts. There is a potential for another round of lower CIGs late Sun night/early Mon morning. Otherwise, mainly dry and VFR Mon. Minimal chcs of showers are forecast Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters through Monday (primarily for seas). - Winds increase Sunday, but remain mainly sub-SCA. Waves may build to 4 ft late Sunday/Sunday night at the mouth of the Bay. - Persistent long period swells keep seas elevated into the middle of next week. Sfc low pressure (~1004mb) lingers well off the northeastern coast of the United States, with a 1022mb+ high pressure centered well to the north, across northern Quebec and New Brunswick. Southeast winds ~10 kt (10-15 kt across the central and northern bay zones continue into this morning. Winds become more easterly this afternoon 10-15 kt with perhaps a few gusts to around 20 kt. This is due to a weak surface low which moves southeast across Virginia into eastern North Carolina. Northeasterly winds 15-20 kt are expected across the coastal waters and the lower bay. Sunday evening winds are expected to decrease to 10-15 kt. Across the bay waves are expected to grow between 1-2ft (2-3ft occasional 4ft at the mouth of the bay) later this afternoon and into the evening. Expect the north coastal water seas to grow to 4-6ft and southern coastal waters 4-5 ft later this afternoon and evening. Through this week expect the coastal waters waves heights to slowly grow as a strong high pressure continues to build in. Right now, mall craft advisories remain in place across the coastal waters till Monday. Possibly expect them to remain in place through this week as seas build. Will note, at this time confidence still remains to low for any headlines (outside of 3-4 ft waves at the mouth of the Ches Bay). Real time analysis and Model trends will continued to be monitored if a headlines needs to be issued for this zone. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 PM Saturday... - Key Message: Long duration coastal flood event continues across the region, with flooding likely to persist through mid week. Various headlines remain in effect (see latest CFWAKQ for details). Tidal departures have risen slightly over the past 12 hrs, with some areas now >+1.5 ft above astro tide levels. This afternoon`s high tide cycle is the higher of the daily cycle (astronomically), which will lead to water levels into moderate flood thresholds for most sites in the mid/upper Bay, as well as the VA eastern shore. Va Beach and Currituck, NC peaked at right around moderate flood stage. The high tides Sunday and Monday afternoon look to be slightly higher than this afternoon`s high tide. As such, expect additional rounds of moderate coastal flooding through Monday evening. Portions of the upper bay may see moderate coastal flooding continue into Tuesday. For now, have issued Coastal Flood Warnings for most of the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia Beach, Currituck, and Eastern Shore (apart from around Ocean City, MD) through Monday evening. Confidence was too low at Yorktown to extend the Coastal Flood Warning beyond Sunday, but this may need to be extended in future updates. Have opted to leave Norfolk and Chesapeake in a Coastal Flood Advisory (as opposed to a Coastal Flood Warning) given that the Elizabeth River and Swell`s Point look to remain below moderate flood stage. However, if tides trend up, they may need to be added to the warning. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains across the Atlantic side of the Maryland Eastern Shore with Ocean City looking to remain in minor flood stage through Monday afternoon. Additional coastal flooding looks to continue into mid week. In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect through Sunday and will likely be extended into Monday as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ076-078- 085-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ083-518- 520. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084-086-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ089- 090-093-096-524-525. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ089-090-093-096. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ095-097. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM MARINE...HET/LKB/MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...