177
FXUS61 KAKQ 271101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses southern Virginia and northeast
North Carolina through this afternoon, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the
region tonight into Friday. Heat and humidity return over the
weekend with an increased chance of thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread
  south early this morning.

- Some beneficial rain has occurred over the north, and
  additional rainfall is likely into at least central portions
  of the area, although it will be hit and miss due to the
  nature of the storms.

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC this
  afternoon-evening.

An upper level trough is pushing across the eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast early this morning. At the surface, low pressure
is pushing across northern New England, with a cold front
trailing to the SW into northern VA. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are pushing across the area early this morning in
advance of the cold front. Rainfall amounts have generally been
0.75- 1.5" across n-central VA to the Eastern Shore, with an
embedded band of 2-3" amounts across the MD Eastern Shore, with
localized amounts ~4". Rainfall from the SW Piedmont to the RIC
metro has generally been 0.25" or less, and rain has yet to fall
across SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures early this morning range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s N, to the upper 70s to lower 80s
S.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
today as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms will initially diminish
in coverage this morning, but are expected to redevelop along
the boundary this afternoon with the highest chc across SE VA
and NE NC. However, there is some uncertainty with respect to
where convection develops today (mainly regarding whether it
will be in srn VA/NE NC or just to our south depending on where
the outflow from overnight convection settles). High
temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the
mid 80s to near 90F. Showers/tstms largely dissipate or move to
our south by late this evening, although some isolated activity
could linger into the early overnight hours over from the SW
Piedmont to NE NC. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the
lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Not as hot and mainly dry Friday.

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity.

High pressure builds across New England Friday following the
frontal passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the
lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s inland. Surface
high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into
early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm
front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc
to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the
Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Saturday as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Highs Saturday return
to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with some mid 90s possible in
central VA as 850mb temperatures around 20C return with
increasing mid-level SW flow. This combined with surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices of
100-105F. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn
showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity of a subtle lee-side
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on
  Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before
  very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

Heat and humidity continue to prevail Sunday as high pressure
remains off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow once
again increases out of the SW. 850mb temps rise to 20-22C on
Sunday. This will support high temps in the mid 90s. Aftn
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward
the coast) during peak heating. This is supported by the
deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but is below the mid
70s-80F shown by the NBM (which is likely too high especially
given how dry it has been the past month). Resultant heat
indices are in the 105-109F range for much of the CWA Sunday.
Isolated to widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday
afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a cold front drops
through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely
early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 00z/27 EPS
and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature
anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance
also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next
week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well
into the 90s for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers/tstms are moving off the coast of SE VA as of 11z.
Otherwise, mainly VFR with the exception of some patchy MVFR
cigs. These showers/tstms are associated with a cold front and
this boundary will be slow to push through far SE VA and NE NC
this afternoon with a 30-60% chc of redevelopment this aftn
(higher chc at ECG and lower at ORF). Brief flight restrictions
are possible, mainly in vsby. Otherwise, drier air will arrive
from the north with VFR conditions.

High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.
There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return by
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 410 AM EDT Thursday...

Early this morning, a cold front with sctd showers and a few
tstms was pushing through central portions of the region. Winds
were variable 5-15 kt with a few gusts to 20-25 kt across the
waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.

The cold front will slowly drop SSE through srn/SE portions of
the region this morning into this aftn, with winds 5-10 kt becoming
NNW or NE over most of the waters behind the front. But, winds
will remain southerly over the nrn coastal waters.

Increasing NE or E winds are expected late tonight through Fri
morning, then E and SE winds for Fri aftn into Sat morning, as
high pressure slides by to the north then off the srn New
England coast. SE then SSW winds at least 10-15 kt are expected
for Sat through Sun. Low rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches today. Moderate rip risk on Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JDM/TMG