Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
324 FXUS61 KAKQ 110755 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with slightly cooler weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... Key message: - Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon closer to the coast. Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms are possible. The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered from eastern Canada to the eastern Great Lakes, with a series of shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough and pushing through the mid-Atlantic. The first shortwave is pushing off the Delmarva coast and taking a cluster of showers/storms that affected the eastern shore offshore. While a spotty light shower may pivot through SE VA early, the sky is partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere with lows through sunrise into the mid to upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast. The primary feature of interest today will be the next shortwave, currently located across the OH Valley and forecast to pivot ESE through this aftn across the local area. Dry conditions this morning, with a partly to mostly sunny sky will see increasing clouds late in the morning through the aftn as this occurs. At the sfc, there will be a lingering trough extending N from low pressure centered off the SE US coast. This will lead to some enhanced sfc/low level convergence and seabreeze boundaries closer to the coast. SPC maintains a Marginal SVR risk across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail. The limiting factor will be a NE low level flow which will keep temperatures down in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with modest low level lapse rates. Additionally, the steeper mid level lapse rates of 6.5C or greater are forecast to stay farther north closer to the core of the upper low, perhaps bushing the eastern shore this aftn, while remaining weaker in the ~5.5C range where the better moisture and highest PoPs reside in the SE. The NW flow aloft will provide some shear so if anything becomes organized enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts will be possible, though the extent of this is rather uncertain. Do anticipate a decent coverage of showers and embedded storms over far SE VA and NE NC this aftn (with high chc to likely PoPs). Heavy downpours and locally heavy rain will be possible. It should be noted that locations at the immediate coast will have a lower threat than areas about 10-30 miles inland from the coast. Mainly dry farther inland today. Highs range from the upper 70s near the immediate coast to the lower 80s inland. Any showers should end rather quickly this evening, then becoming mostly clear with lows in the 50s well inland to the low-mid 60s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday as high pressure settles across the area. The upper trough will be well off to the NE of the local area on Wed, as an upper level ridge centered across the desert SW slowly builds eastward. The flow aloft will be from the NW with light flow in the low levels as a broad area of sfc high pressure settles over the region, shifting off the coast in the aftn. Dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning becoming partly cloudy with SCT Cu in the aftn. Seasonable highs for Wed ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the coast, with dew pts in the 50s to around 60F keeping conditions rather pleasant. Mostly clear and a little warmer Wed night with lows primarily ranging through the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the mid 90s by Friday. - Mostly dry into early next week with only a slight chance for a few evening showers and storms Friday and afternoon showers and storms Saturday. A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs increase from the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu to the mid 90s on Fri (lower 90s along the coast). While temps will be hot by Fri, dew points in the 60s will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. That being said, we could be looking at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night with a few isolated showers or storms possible along it Fri evening across NE portions of the FA. A few additional storms are possible across the S Sat afternoon. The upper level ridge builds back in to the East Coast this weekend into early next week with warm temps continuing. Highs in the mid-upper 80s NE to the lower 90s SW Sat, low-mid 80s E to the upper 80s to ~90F W Sun, and upper 80s to lower 90s Mon. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday... A cluster of showers/tstms is pushing off the coast of the eastern shore, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. SBY is now seeing improving conditions with rain ending and will become VFR right around the start of the TAF period. Elsewhere, just a few isolated light showers are passing across central and southern VA but will likely miss all of the main terminals with VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN clouds at 5-10k ft. Clouds generally diminish in coverage towards sunrise, with winds shifting to the N/NE. Expect to see CU increase in coverage by mid- late morning (especially along the coast), with scattered showers and embedded tstms developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea breeze boundary across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore. Locally heavy downpours are likely with any storm, with brief gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger storms is expected to be isolated). The most probably flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in heavy downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best chance is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS has been included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is lower at ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now. Limited chance for any convection to affect RIC. Any showers/storms taper off between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming mostly clear later tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight through Friday. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday. Early AM surface analysis shows a weak front dropping southward across the waters with winds becoming N 10-15 kt in its wake. Most of the convection associated with this front is now exiting the waters off of Ocean City. An upper trough is noted to the west of the local area and should swing through the region today. Northerly flow will prevail through the morning hours before sea breeze forcing turns the flow more onshore by early afternoon, especially from the southern Ches Bay southward into NE NC. A few showers or storms may form along this area of surface convergence, resulting in locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. High pressure builds into the region this evening into Wednesday with benign marine conditions expected. The surface high moves offshore on Thursday with flow becoming SE and increasing to ~15 kt by late Thursday afternoon. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front swings through the waters. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft through the daylight hours of Thursday before increasing along with the winds into Friday and Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period. Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon across the southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...LKB/MAM MARINE...RHR