164
FXUS61 KAKQ 191744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain north of the region while low pressure
remains well offshore. A backdoor cold front potentially drops
back south across the region Saturday. High pressure builds north
of the area this weekend into early next week leading to generally
dry conditions. A cold front potentially approaches by the middle
to later portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Less rain chances today with some partial clearing later in
  the day.

This morning, high pressure remains centered over interior New
England, while low pressure is situated just offshore of Long
Island and Cape Cod. A stationary front also lingers south of
the forecast area over central/southern North Carolina. Broad
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS aloft, with a small
closed low over the area. Scattered (mainly light) showers are
still lingering over the southern half of the forecast area this
morning. Light rain showers continue over interior NE NC, with
a smaller batch moving S through the Piedmont (well W of I-95).
Patchy drizzle is also noted over SE VA w/ the NNE sfc flow.
Clearing has occurred over portions of the MD Eastern Shore per
the latest visible satellite images.

Am expecting a drier day (compared to the past few days) as well
as some partial clearing/sunshine (especially later in the day
and inland). Could see a few additional showers develop late
this morning through the afternoon across the srn 1/3rd of the
area (in association w/ the departing upper low), but latest
CAMs suggest somewhat lower coverage and have 30-40% PoPs at
most. For much of the nrn 2/3rds of the forecast area, we
should see mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies by this
afternoon (mostly sunny on the MD Eastern Shore). High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies
clear out tonight, with lows dropping into the upper 50s NW and
60s elsewhere. Will have to watch the potential for some patchy
fog (best chances west of I-95 across the Piedmont).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into Saturday.

- A backdoor cold front potentially drops south across the region on
Saturday.

Fairly pleasant Friday and Saturday with high pressure over New
England extending down into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low
will linger well off the Mid Atlantic coast, eventually bringing a
backdoor cold front into the region for Saturday. Sunshine returns
in earnest for Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 80s
(70s along the immediate coast). Low temperatures Friday night range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mostly sunny skies continue into
Saturday, with highs again in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds
increase late in the day and especially overnight as a backdoor cold
front drops through the region. The forecast is currently dry for
Saturday night, but there is the potential we may see a few light
rain showers over the area as the front drops south. Lows will again
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather arrives Sunday into early next week.

Aloft, a tall upper level ridge builds well into Canada and
Greenland with an upper level trough along the East Coast this
weekend into early next week. At the surface, low pressure off the
Mid Atlantic coastline gradually shifts south Sunday into early next
week. Meanwhile, a cold front may try to approach from the west late
in the period. Cooler weather is expected by Sunday and especially
Monday, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 50s away from the coast. Given the low off the
coast, coastal areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts to 25-
30 mph Sunday into Monday along with greater cloud cover and
humidity. Generally dry weather is expected through the period, with
the next appreciable chances for rain mid to late week with a
possible cold front approaching the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Conditions have been improving through the late morning and
early afternoon hours at the terminals as relatively drier air
filters into the area from the N. Generally seeing MVFR- VFR
CIGs, with the thickest cloud cover (BKN-OVC) across the
Piedmont and in NE NC. Seeing FEW-SCT cloud cover elsewhere,
including at SBY. Similar conditions through the rest of the
daylight hours today, with CIGs expected to lift a little more
(to 3-4k ft AGL) and skies averaging SCT-BKN. Additional IFR
(and possible LIFR) could develop tonight from low stratus
and/or fog. Guidance is not in the best agreement, thus
confidence is on the low side. However, the best chance for
dense fog appears to be at ECG, with patchy fog or stratus
elsewhere. Will not explicitly show IFR/LIFR in the TAF as of
now, but have introduced MVFR VSBY in the 07-13z timeframe.
Conditions improve after 13-14z Friday and mostly sunny skies
are expected by the early afternoon.

N-NNE winds average 5-10 kt this afternoon and become 5 kt or
less tonight. Similar winds expected Friday.

Outlook: Gradually improving and primarily VFR conditions are
expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters off the Eastern
Shore into this afternoon

-Additional Small Craft Advisories likely this weekend into early
next week

Onshore/NE flow continues this morning as low pressure remains
situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds are breezy at 10-15kt
with gusts to 20kt as of latest obs. Buoy obs reflect seas around
4ft S of Cape Charles Light and 5-6ft to the N. SCAs are still in
effect for the elevated seas. May need to extend the SCA for the
waters between Cape Charles and Parramore Island past the set 4am
expiration time given the latest obs. Low pressure will slowly nudge
further NE today and high pressure centered to the N will fill in
over the local area behind it. The relaxing pressure gradient will
allow for further improvement in marine conditions. Winds shift to
the N by the afternoon and 9-13kt,then further diminish to the 5-
10kt later tonight. Expect seas to gradually improve as well,
especially once winds become less onshore. Seas should be down to
~4ft across the coastal waters by late this evening.

Low pressure to the NE will more or less remain in place on Fri.
While N/NE winds will be sub-SCA at 10-15kt Fri-Sat, swell from the
offshore low arrives Fri morning, leading to increasing seas once
again. Northern coastal waters will see 5-6ft seas by Fri afternoon.
Southern coastal waters likely start to see the 5ft seas late Fri
night/early Sat morning. The pressure gradient over the waters will
start to tighten up again Sun as the low shifts SE. This will lead
to increased NE winds Sun, especially over coastal waters. The
bay/rivers will likely need SCAs for winds ~20kt. Winds over coastal
waters look to be 20-25kt. Swell combined with elevated winds will
allow seas to build to 6-8ft in the N and 5-7ft S. While winds look
to improve early next week, seas will be slow to drop off once
again.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach of
the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged onshore
flow will continue to produce nuisance to low-end minor tidal
flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal rivers
through the end of the week. Have opted to extend the Coastal Flood
Advisories given similar water levels near minor flood thresholds
expected for the next high tide cycle as well.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be needed
through the end of the week and into the weekend due to extended
periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Building flood tide
Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide
levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances
northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the
upcoming weekend. Coastal Flood Watches may be issued in upcoming
forecast cycles.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ078-
     084>086-095>100-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-093.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...