933
FXUS61 KAKQ 181826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
226 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently off the New England coast slowly shifts
south through the end of the week. A very warm and dry pattern
will continue this week, with very hot weather expected this
weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:
- Quiet night with temperatures dropping back to a comfortable low
to mid 60s (except mid-upper 60s at the coast).

Another quiet night. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, expect
temps to drop back into a lower to mid 60s inland and mid-upper 60s
near the coast. May be some higher clouds moving in overnight, but
they should not impact the low temperatures much.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:
- Pleasant weather with seasonably warm temperatures on Wed and
  Thursday.

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

Very pleasant days on Wed and Thu with the high pressure ridge in
control. No chances for precipitation with seasonably warm
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s with
relatively low humidity (dew points forecast in the lower 60s).
Slightly warmer on Thursday as the sfc ridge shifts southward
leading to 850mb temps being about a degree warmer than Wed. Still,
temps will top out in the lower 90s with still relatively low dew
points in the low-mid 60s.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge
axis shift further south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps
currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic.
This will help winds to become north southwesterly especially inland
helping to warm the entire region, but especially inland areas.
Have trended the Friday temperatures up perhaps a degree or so,
but still in the mid 90s in central VA and lower 90s closer to
the coast and in NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Building heat through the weekend with dangerous heat index values
approaching 105F or greater by Sunday. Dangerous heat possible on
Monday as well.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered
showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence is
low for widespread rainfall.

Latest NBM guidance suggests temps a degree or two warmer Saturday
and Sunday, especially in central Virginia. This seems to be in
line with the other ensemble guidance that shows about a 50%
probability of 100F or greater temps by Sunday. Although the
ongoing dryness will likely keep dew points from becoming too
extreme, even dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 yield
heat index values of around 105F with WBGT values in the 85 to
87 range. These type of values would need a heat advisory for
much of the area for the upcoming weekend. Confidence for temps
on Monday is lower than the weekend due to the potential for
precip and more clouds. It may be just a tad cooler given
increased clouds and perhaps a few storms but if there are less
clouds then we could make a run at 100F on Monday as well.

Otherwise, rainfall continues to look hard to come by for the next 7
days. Will maintain slight chance or small chance PoPs for Sun night
through Tuesday as the frontal boundary slows down or stalls over
the region. Unfortunately moisture will be very hard to come by but
with the boundary around there will be enough lift for at least a
few showers/storms especially on Monday. Many places
unfortunately will not see much rain. In fact, the Grand
Ensemble (EPS/GEFS/Canadian Ens) probability of at least 0.25"
of 72 hr rainfall ending 12z Tuesday is only about 30 percent,
while the probability of less than 0.10" is nearly 40 percent.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Afternoon cumulus around 4-6kft this afternoon and again on
Wednesday but no operational impacts expected. SE winds of 5-10
kt.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday
as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds expected this week, though a few gusts to around 20
kt are possible during the afternoon hours.

- Moderate rip current risk at Ocean City and Assateague beaches
today. Moderate rip risk expected to persist at all local beaches
for the next couple of days.

Winds remain east/southeasterly across the marine area this
afternoon, and will persist as such through most of the week as high
pressure sits overhead. Scattered spots in the lower Bay could see
slightly elevated gusts to 20-22kt this afternoon, though sustained
winds are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds. Seas are 2-3ft
with waves of 1-2ft, and these conditions are expected to persist,
aside from a brief period of 2-3ft waves possible in the lower Bay
this afternoon as the wind increases. The flow becomes more
southerly Friday and into the weekend as the area of high pressure
drifts south. Winds may increase on Saturday as the pressure
gradient tightens a bit between the high pressure and an approaching
trough. As of this forecast package, the best chance for any SCA
thresholds would come on Sunday as the trough pushes through the
area. This potentially may also bring our first rain chances later
Sunday into Monday.

The rip current risk is moderate across northern beaches and low
across southern beaches today. A moderate risk is forecast at all
beaches Wednesday. Swell energy and wave periods increase some for
Thursday and Friday, suggesting a continuation of at least moderate
rip risks.&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JKP