860
FXUS61 KAKQ 280805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the region through this morning,
then slides off the southern New England coast for this
afternoon into tonight, providing dry weather. Heat and
humidity return for Saturday and Sunday, with an increased
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through
Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over Lake
Huron. Other than isolated patchy fog, the sky was clear to
partly cloudy across the area. Temps were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The sfc high will build across New England through
this morning, then slides off the srn New England coast for this
aftn into tonight. NE or E flow today will keep highs in the
lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s/90
inland/Piedmont under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity.

- Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on
  Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night.

The sfc high pressure will be off the New England coast for
tonight into early Sat, with some moisture returning as a weak
warm front lifts through the area. Will maintain a dry fcst, but
an isolated shower could come up into NE NC by Sat morning.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat
and increasing humidity return Sat, as high pressure shifts
farther out to sea resulting in low level flow becoming SSE.
This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports
widespread lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont. Highs near the
coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 (lower to
mid 80s at the MD beaches), as there will still be a bit of an
onshore component to the flow. This combined with sfc dewpoints
in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms
over the Piedmont in the vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough.
Although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress
more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a
decent amount of sfc-based instability present.

Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on
Sun, and that cold front will cross the area Sun evening into
Mon morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on
Sun ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C.
This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s
expected inland/Piedmont, and 88-94 near the coast (morning
lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in
the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat
indices of 105-107F are in the forecast. Note that the dew
point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than
NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, sctd to
numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night
along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from NW
to SE late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample
instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any
storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun
night in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before
  very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake
of the cold front as the 00z/28 EPS and GEFS continue to depict
below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday.
However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into
the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence
Day with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area.
Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Monday morning, dry
wx is expected through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Friday...

Just SCT mid and high clouds will prevail at the TAF sites from
early this morning into tonight. But, patchy fog will be likely
across far S/SE VA and NE NC until 11-12z, before NE winds pick
up over the region, with NE then E winds continuing into tonight
with speeds 10-15 kt possible. IFR/MVFR VIS is possible with
any fog early this morning. Winds become E then SE and lighter
later tonight into Sat morning, with increasing cloud cover.

High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today
through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely
Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return
for Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy
  onshore/southerly winds this afternoon through the weekend

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday.

Latest analysis reveals a weak secondary cold front just north
of the waters early this morning. Light SSW winds persist across
the waters ahead of the front, with winds ~5-10 kt. High
pressure slides into the NE CONUS through the morning, pushing
the weak front south across the waters just before sunrise
through mid-morning. Winds become NE post-frontal, increasing
to 10-15 kt. Models continue to show BL winds ~20 kt across the
upper bay for a brief time later this morning, and we`ve added a
short Small Craft Advisory as a result north of New Point
Comfort. Winds become more easterly through the day ~10-15kt.
As high pressure to the N slides offshore later today and
tonight, expect winds veer to the SE, becoming SSE by Saturday
morning, with SE winds persisting Sat aftn ~10-15 kt.

Another cold front looks to approach the area Sunday, and
southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night as
surface high pressure slides farther offshore ahead of the
approaching front. Southerly channeling in the lower James and
Ches Bay look increasingly likely to create a brief period of
SCA- level winds late Saturday into Sunday morning, with winds
appearing to fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters
and most of the eastern Va rivers. Breezy S-SW winds continue
~10-15kt Sun aftn and night, turning to the NNW behind the
front Monday. Models showing winds remaining sub- SCA at this
time but given decent CAA for early July, another short-lived
SCA appears quite possible Sunday night into Monday, again,
mainly in the bay. Showers and storms will also accompany the
front, with some SMW/MWS likely to be needed Sunday night.

Waves/seas 1-2 ft early this morning. Seas increasing to 3-4ft
later this morning (highest north) with developing onshore (NE)
wind. Waves increase to around 2-3 ft (highest at the mouth of
the bay), then remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft
will be possible in the bay onshore flow persisting on Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic-
coast beaches in the FA through Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/MAM