759
FXUS61 KAKQ 241902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather returns tonight into tomorrow as high pressure
builds into the region. Another cold front approaches the
region later Wednesday and crosses the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region for the
later portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Early this afternoon, a cold front has made its way through much
of the area and is currently located from far SE Virginia Beach
and extends back into NE North Carolina. It is quite unstable
ahead of the front with MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg in addition to
modest shear of ~35 knots. As a result, have seen widespread
convection develop along and ahead of the front with some storms
becoming severe (damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat).
As typical this time of the year, the front will likely slow
down as it approaches the Albemarle Sound and eventually stall
south of our area. This could lead to a heavy rain threat for
southern portions of our NE North Carolina counties due to
training storms. The 12z HREF supports this thinking, showing a
10 to 30% probability of 3" in 3 hours focused closer to the
Albemarle Sound. Widespread flooding is not anticipated due to
the dry conditions, but some localized flooding issues cannot be
ruled out for areas near the sound. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for portions of our NE North Carolina
counties until 8 PM, though there is a good chance that the
watch will end early for our counties as the training storms
continue to work over the environment.

Behind the front, drier air continues to filter into the region
with dewpoints now dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
across our western counties. Cannot rule out a stray shower this
afternoon, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures range from upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front.

All activity likely shifts south of the area by this evening
with more comfortable weather settling into the region. Clouds
will decrease from NW to SE, with mainly clear skies expected
tonight. Temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s away
from the immediate coast, with upper 50s possible in the
typically cooler rural spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot tomorrow, though humidity levels will be
comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed
100 F again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being strong or
severe.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for tomorrow with
high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the
lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the
50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday
with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of
the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat
indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories
may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the N/NW late
in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with shower and
storm potential with this feature, especially in the later afternoon
and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus over northern
and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could approach
strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability and
increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Colorado State machine
learning probabilities also show an increased potential for severe
weather on Wednesday, so this will be something we will need to
watch as we start to get closer in time. For now, SPC only has
northern portions of the area highlighted in a Day 3 Marginal Risk
of severe weather, but would not be shocked to see this expanded
with future updates. Shower/storm chances linger into the overnight
period with temps generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions continuing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the
thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday
afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible during
the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields across
the S suggest a lower threat. High temps Thursday generally in the
upper 80s to around 90 F. High pressure will situate N of the area
behind the front Friday, shifting offshore by the weekend. An
isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the
far SW Piedmont, but most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot
weather is expected for the weekend as an upper-level dome of high
pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The
ridge retreats W as a trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday
into Monday, bringing a cold front through the area. Scattered
showers and storms are thus possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the
extended period suggests continued dry conditions and potential
drought development or expansion.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

The convection from earlier has largely shifted south of the
terminals, with only ECG still dealing with some lingering
issues. Showers and storms will remain near ECG for the next
couple of hours before settling down after ~20z. Periods of
sub-VFR VSBYs (and potentially CIGs) with any showers or storms.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
forecast period. Winds become NW in the wake of the front this
afternoon, occasionally gusting to around 20 knots before
becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected through
midweek. The next chance for widely scattered showers and storms
is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns Tuesday evening into Wednesday ahead
of the next cold front.

Low pressure is moving off the coast of Maine this afternoon with a
trailing cold front extending well to the SW into coastal SE VA and
NE NC. Winds behind the front are generally N or NW ~15 kt while
areas to the south and east remain WSW 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay
are around 1 foot with 1-2 ft near the mouth. Seas range from 3-4 ft
N to 2-3 ft for the waters south of Ches Light.

The cold front pushes offshore into this evening as weak high
pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind the front
but not expecting much in the way of cold advection. By tonight, the
wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most of the marine area, and 10-15kt
offshore N of Parramore Island. The front washes out in vicinity of
the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected
through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High pressure rebuilds offshore by
the middle of the week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning,
generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and strongest late
aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief period of SCA
conditions is possible Tuesday evening in the Ches Bay, especially
from New Point Comfort northward. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight
into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft
N midweek and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow.
4-5 ft seas are possible for a brief period north of Parramore
Island Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another weakening cold front
pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind
shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches on Tuesday. A
moderate rip risk is possible for the northern beaches on Wednesday
as southerly flow and associated wind waves increase.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/RHR